(First published as Gideon Polya, “Extrapolating 11,000 scientists’ climate emergency warning to 2030 climate catastrophe”, Countercurrents, 14 November 2019: https://countercurrents.org/2019/11/extrapolating-11000-scientists-climate-emergency-warning-to-2030-catastrophe .)
Summary.
Over 11,000 scientists have signed up to a World scientists’ warning of a Climate Emergency that sets out trends in 24 climate-related areas over the last 40 years. Scientists became aware of the serious climate change threat from greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution in the 1980s, but in 21 of these 24 areas the trends are (a) huge, (b) in the wrong direction, and (c) linear or quasi-linear functions of time, with this allowing extrapolation from the present climate emergency to a climate catastrophe in 2030.
Island Nations are being devastated at the present global warming of plus 1.1C , plus 1.5C is set to be reached in the coming decade (IPCC), consideration of atmospheric aerosols and remorselessly increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution means that a catastrophic plus 2C is effectively unavoidable, and national Paris commitments imply over plus 3C. And then there is the Arctic Methane Bomb. Nevertheless decent people are obliged to do everything they can to make the future “less bad’ for future generations.
Informed by the science, decent people around the world must (a) inform everyone they can about the worsening Climate Emergency, Climate Genocide and Intergenerational Inequity, (b) urge a climate revolution (non-violent of course) with hundreds of millions out in the streets inspired by the likes of teenage activist Greta Thunberg, and (c) urge and apply Boycotts, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) against all people, politicians, parties, collectives, corporations and countries disproportionately involved in the worsening Climate Genocide that is presently set to kill 10 billion people this century en route to a sustainable human population of merely 0.5-1.0 billion in 2100 (see Gideon Polya, “Extrapolating 11,000 scientists’ climate emergency warning to 2030 climate catastrophe”, Countercurrents, 14 November 2019: https://countercurrents.org/2019/11/extrapolating-11000-scientists-climate-emergency-warning-to-2030-catastrophe .)
Review of William Ripple et al.., “World scientists’ warning of a climate emergency”, BioScience, 5 November 2019: https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/biz088/5610806 .
Over 11,000 scientists have signed up to a World scientists’ warning of a Climate Emergency that sets out trends in 24 climate-related areas over the last 40 years. Scientists became aware of the climate change threat from greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution in the 1980s, but in 21 of these 24 areas the trends are (a) huge, (b) in the wrong direction, and (c) linear or quasi-linear functions of time , with this allowing extrapolation from the present climate emergency to a climate catastrophe in 2030.
The 2019 paper by William Ripple et al., and co-signed by over 11,000 scientists from around the world [1], is a successor to a similar warning issued by William Ripple et al. in 2017 and co-signed by over 15,000 scientists [2, 3]. The 2017 warning presented data for the 56 year period of 1960-2016 showing a quasi-linear change as a function of time of increasing CO2 emissions, increasing temperature, the number of ocean dead zone regions, increasing population increase, and increasing ruminant population. Paralleling these changes were quasi-linear decreases over recent decades of freshwater resources per capita, reconstructed annual marine catch, total forest area, and vertebrate species abundance (as a % of the 1970 abundance). In stark contrast to this worsening disaster in 8 areas was a decrease since 1992 of emissions of ozone depletors (in Mt CFC-11 equivalents per year) , this demonstrating clearly that global action on serious environmental pollution was actually possible [2, 3].
In 2017 Ripple et al. stated; : “Twenty-five years ago [in 1992], the Union of Concerned Scientists and more than 1700 independent scientists, including the majority of living Nobel laureates in the sciences, penned the 1992 “World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity”… These concerned professionals called on humankind to curtail environmental destruction and cautioned that “a great change in our stewardship of the Earth and the life on it is required, if vast human misery is to be avoided.” In their manifesto, they showed that humans were on a collision course with the natural world…Since 1992, with the exception of stabilizing the stratospheric ozone layer, humanity has failed to make sufficient progress in generally solving these foreseen environmental challenges, and alarmingly, most of them are getting far worse… Especially troubling is the current trajectory of potentially catastrophic climate change due to rising GHGs from burning fossil fuels,… deforestation,… and agricultural production - particularly from farming ruminants for meat consumption… Moreover, we have unleashed a mass extinction event, the sixth in roughly 540 million years, wherein many current life forms could be annihilated or at least committed to extinction by the end of this century” [2].
2017 WARNING DATA.
Figure 1 of the 2017 Ripple et al. warning paper [2] showed trends over time for environmental issues identified in the 1992 scientists’ warning to humanity. Percentage [quasi-linear] change since 1992 for the variables in each panel are as follows, noting that because these changes were roughly linear with time one can extrapolate to roughly estimate the situation in 2030. All trends except for the decrease in ozone depletors (*) were in the wrong direction from the perspective of Humanity and the Biosphere.
*(a) Ozone depletors (Mt CFC-11-equivalent per year): 1.05 (1992) to 0.345 (2016), -62.3% overall, -26.0% per decade, -0.029 per year; all ozone depletors gone before 2030.
(b) Freshwater resources per capita (1,000 metre3 ): 8.0 (1992) to 5.9 (2014), -25.4% overall, - 12.0 % per decade, -0.095 per year; 4,400 metre3 in 2030.
(c) Reconstructed marine catch (Mt per year): 121 (1992) to 113 (2011), -6.6%, overall, - 3.5% per decade, -0.42 per year; 105 million tonnes marine catch per year in 2030.
(d) Dead zones (number of affected regions): 360 (1992) to 660 (2008), +83.3% overall, +52% per decade, +11.5 per year; 913 ocean dead zones by 2030.
(e) Total forest (million hectares): 4.110 (1992) to 3.990 (2016), –2.9% overall, -1.2% per decade, -0.005 per year; 3.92 million hectares by 2030.
(f) Vertebrate species abundance (% of 1970): 59.5 (1992) to 43.5 (2010), - 26.9% overall , -14.9% per decade, -0.89 per year; 27.5% of 1970 level by 2030.
(g) CO2 emissions (Gt CO2 per year): 22.5 (1992) to 36.0 (2014), + 60.0% overall, +27.3% per decade, + 0.84 per year; 49.4 Gt CO2 emitted in 2030.
(h) Temperature change (oC): 0.30 (1992) to 0.90 (2016), +200% overall, +83.3% per decade, 0.0033 per year; + 0.95 oC by 2030.
(i) (a). Human population (billion individuals): 5.50 (1992) to 7.45 (2016), + 35.5% overall, +14.8% per decade, 0.081 per year; 8.58 billion human individuals in 2030.
(i) (b). Ruminant population (billion individuals): 3.25 (1992) to 3.90 (2014), +20.0% overall, +9.1% per decade, +.03 per year; 4.38 billion ruminant individuals in 2030 [2, 3].
2019 WARNING FIGURE 1 DATA.
Figures 1 and 2 of the 2019 Ripple et al. warning paper [1] sets out trends in 24 areas within a 40 year period from 1979 to 2019. Because the changes were quasi-linear as a function of time one could reasonably extrapolate the data to 2030 to (a) roughly estimate the seriousness of the situation in a mere decade’s time , (b) compare the data with that of the prior 2017 study, and (c) provide absolute estimates for the various parameters. Most trends were in the wrong direction except for those asterisked (*).
Figure 1 (a). Human population (billions): 4.35 (1979) to 7.65 (2018), +75.9% overall, +19.5% per decade, + 0.085 billion per year, and an estimated 9.07 billion human population in 2030 (assuming an average increase of +84.6 million per year, noting that the increase in population was linear over the period 1979-2018).
Comments. This result is similar to that of the 2017 paper (8.58 billion) [2].The UN Population Division World Population Prospects 2019 estimates a human population of 8.55 billion in 2030 [4]. Drastic decrease in population is required for cessation of the present appalling level of ecosystem destruction (ecocide) that is associated with catastrophic species loss (speciescide) and leading to omnicide and terracide. If we take world coral as a “canary in the coal mine” then the 320 ppm CO2 at which coral reefs started to decline [5] was reached in 1965 [6], at which time the world’s population was 3.340 billion as compared to the present 7.5 billion [4]. One can therefore plausibly suggest that given the present carbon economy the world’s population needs to roughly halve for a safe and sustainable environment for all peoples and all species [7] . However a number of climate scientists and demographers have variously estimated a 0.5-1.0 billion sustainable human population in 2100 with this implying 10 billion premature deaths in a Climate Genocide this century [8-11]. UN Population Division projections show that this century the population of rich Europe will fall from 742 million (2018) to 653 million (2100) whereas the population of impoverished Africa will explode from 1,274 million (2018) to 4,468 million (2100) [4]. However in terms of relative carbon footprint, the per capita GDP (nominal) is $25,596 for Europe versus $1,753 for Africa (2016), this translating to a total GDP of $19.3 trillion for Europe and $2.2 trillion for Africa [12]. For carbon footprint equality the European population would need to decrease 10-fold or the African per capita income would have to increase 10-fold. However Professor Dabo Guan (School of International Development, University of East Anglia, UK) (2016) has commented thus on inescapable limits to growth: “For everyone in the world to have an American lifestyle, we would need seven planets, and three to live as Europeans” [13]. Clearly the rich European population is not declining fast enough and the impoverished African population is expanding impossibly.
*Figure 1 (b). Total fertility (births per woman): 3.78 (1979) to 2.70 (2008) to 2.44 (2017). Births per woman per decade were 0.37 (1979-2008) to 0.24 (2008-2017) and an average of 0.35 (1979-2017) (about – 10.9% per decade, -1.1% per year and 0.035 per year). Extrapolation from the 2008-2017 trend of – 0.024 per year yields 2.13 average births per woman in 2030.
Comments. Births per woman per decade fell into 2 quasi linear periods of 1979-2008 and 2008-2017, with the rate in the latter period being 64.9% of that in the earlier period. This is a useful trend but it disguises a continuing resource-utilization disaster in which (a) the GDP per capita is about 10 times greater in low birth rate, rich and mainly European countries than in impoverished, Developing World countries (minus China) [7, 12], and (b) while many prosperous countries have attained or are approaching zero population growth (ZPG), some areas (notably Africa) are out of control as discussed above for Figure 1 (b). The replacement fertility rate depends upon the death rate and thus is 2.1 in rich Developed World (zero avoidable mortality annually from deprivation) and about 3.0 in Developing countries (minus China) in which avoidable deaths from deprivation total 15 million each year [14, 15].
Figure 1 (c). Ruminant livestock (billion individuals): 2.86 billion (1979) to 3.93 billion (2017) (+ 8.72% per decade, +0.87% per year and +0.028 per year), noting an apparent, short, low-growth period in the middle 1990s. Assuming the 1979-2017 average trend yields a value from extrapolation of 4.29 billion individual ruminants in 2030.
Comments. The ratio of livestock to human individuals has decreased from 0.66 (1979) to 0.52 (2017) but is predicted to flatten to 0.48 (2030) (presumably as more Chinese join the meat-eating middle class). However ruminant livestock are methanogenic and methane (CH4) has a Global Warming Potential (GWP) relative to the same mass of CO2 of 105 on a 20 year time frame taking aerosols into account [16], this being 5 times higher than the 21 with a 100 year timeframe [17, 18]. When World Bank analysts took land use and a 20 year-based GWP for CH4 into account, the global annual greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution rose from 41.8 gigatonnes CO2-equivalent (Food and Agricultural Organization, FAO) to 63.8 gigatonnes CO2-equivalent [19]. One notes that Figure 1 (k) confusingly cites the 2018 global CO2 emissions as 34 gigatonnes CO2-equivalent per year [1]. The German WBGU (that advises the German Government) (2009) and the Australian Climate Commission (2013) have estimated that no more than 600 billion tonnes of CO2 can be emitted between 2010 and zero emissions in 2050 if the world is to have a 75% chance of avoiding a catastrophic 2C temperature rise [20, 21]. However the upwardly revised estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution properly taking land use and methane (CH4) into account means an annual GHG pollution of 63.8 Gt CO2-equivalent and hence 638 GtCO2-equivalent over the next decade i.e. the world will have exceeded this Terminal Carbon Pollution Budget by 2020. Of course, one can well ask whether you would board a plane with a 75% chance of it crashing. A major imperative (as indeed perceived by Ripple et al [1]) is for the word to adopt a vegetarian diet [22]. Australia is among world leaders in 15 areas of climate criminality, including export of methanogenically-derived meat [23, 24]. Climate criminal Australians (and other rich, meat-eating Westerners) would be well-advised to adopt vegetarianism or, failing that, urgently return to the up to 65,000 years old Indigenous Australian cultures that supplemented their sustainably-derived diets with non-methanogenic kangaroo meat [25].
Figure 1 (d). Per capita meat production (kg per year): 30 (1979) to 44 (2018) (+11% per decade, +1.1% per year, +0.36 per year ) . This yields an estimated 62.3 kg per capita in 2030, noting that the remarkably linear progression from 1979 onwards gives greater confidence to this extrapolation.
Comments. This remarkable rise in per capita meat production contrasts with the roughly static ratio of livestock to human individuals (Figure 1 (c) [1] data considered above). This data reflects (a) the meat eating of the growing middle classes of the Developing World (including China) and (b) the rise in chicken production (especially in Asia). Chicken meat production in 2014- 2023 will increase at 2.3% per year to 134.5 million tonnes in 2023. By way of comparison, the growth rates are 1.2% per year for beef and pig meat, 2.3% per year for sheep meat and 1.6% per year for meat overall [26]. The conversion efficiency (kg grain to produce 1 kg gain in live weight) is as follows herbivorous farmed fish (e.g. carp, tilapia, catfish; less than 2), chicken (2), pork (4), and beef (7). In 2003, 37% of the world grain harvest, or nearly 700 million tons, was used to produce animal protein [27]. A vegetarian diet is a must for an increasingly resource-challenged Humanity [22].
Figure 1 (e). World GDP (trillion current US$/year). The data appear to fall into to 2 successive upward linear phases with an upward inflection in about 2000: 10.0 (1979) to 32.5 (1998) and 37.5 (2001) to 86.3 (2018), with growth rates of $1.18 trillion per year and $2.87 trillion per year, respectively, and an overall growth of + 80.5% /10 years ( +8.1% per year and +$1.96 trillion per year). Assuming that the latter faster rate applies over the next dozen years (+ $2.87 trillion per year), one can predict a World GDP of $120.7 trillion in 2030.
Comments. As discussed in relation to Figure 1 (a) [1] above, there needs to be a halving of population, and a consequent halving of the global economy through economic de-growth (negative economic growth). The major burden of such negative economic growth would have to be borne by rich Western countries to allow the global South to achieve a modest increase to permit a modestly decent life and cessation of the horrendous Global Avoidable Mortality Holocaust in which 15 million people die avoidably each year from imposed deprivation [15].
Figure 1 (f). Global tree cover loss (million hectares per year): The data fall into 2 successive upward linear phases with an apparent short low-rate period in the late 2000s: 14 (2001) to 18 (2005) and 18 (2010) to 27.5 (2018) with corresponding rates of loss of 1.0 and 1.2 million hectares per year, respectively. Extrapolation using the latter faster latter rate yields an estimated loss rate of 41.9 million hectares of tree cover loss per year by 2030.
Comments. This asserted tree loss would be happening in biodiverse tropical forests. However Xiao-Peng Song and colleagues in a 2018 paper in the prestigious journal Nature: “We analyse 35 years’ worth of satellite data and provide a comprehensive record of global land-change dynamics during the period 1982–2016. We show that—contrary to the prevailing view that forest area has declined globally, tree cover has increased by 2.24 million km2 [224 million hectares] (+7.1% relative to the 1982 level [3.155 million hectares]. This overall net gain is the result of a net loss in the tropics being outweighed by a net gain in the extratropics. Global bare ground cover has decreased by 1.16 million km2 [116 million hectares] (−3.1), most notably 2009-2018 in agricultural regions in Asia. Of all land changes, 60% are associated with direct human activities and 40% with indirect drivers such as climate change” [28]. One Tree Planet states: “Scientists have always speculated about how trees can help end the current climate crisis, but the question has always been how many. A new study from the Crowther Lab out of Swiss University ETH Zurich, has finally come up with an answer: 1 trillion more trees on Earth could sequester more than 60% of anthropogenic carbon emissions… Other technology like direct-air capture or CO2 separation have proven to be comparatively ineffective and far exceed the costs of just planting more trees. In their study titled The Global Tree Restoration Potential, Crowther Lab determined our planet could support 4.4 billion hectares of continuous tree coverage. With current global tree coverage sitting around 2.8 billion hectares, that means Earth could sustain 1.6 billion more hectares of forest. Of those 1.6 billion hectares, Crowther Lab discovered just under a billion hectares, excluding land occupied by agriculture and cities (about 1 trillion trees worth), inherently suitable for supporting reforestation efforts - that’s a land area almost the size of China” [29].
Figure 1 (g). Brazilian Amazon forest loss (millions hectares per year) was in the range 1-3 million hectares per year in the period 1988-2008 (very scattered data) and then fell to about 0.7- 0.9 million hectares per year in the period 2009-2018 (- 24.3% /10 years, -2.4% per year).
Comments. One could tentatively assume that Brazil might keeps to this rate of Amazon forest destruction of about 1 million hectares per year by 2030, increased by the current burning of the Amazon forest under neoliberal and neofascist President Jair Bolsonaro and decreased by the consequent international outcry.
Figure 1 (h). Energy consumption (Gt oil equivalent/year). Annual oil, coal and gas exploitation increased in a quasi-linear fashion from 1979-2018 with overall increases of +11.9%/decade, + 22.5%/decade and +30.1% /decade, respectively. Oil usage rose from 3.0 Gt oe (1979) to 4.6 Gt oe (2018), coal rose from 1.8 Gt oe (1979) to 3.9 Gt oe (2018) and gas rose from 1.1 Gt oe (1979) to 3.2 Gt oe (2018). Extrapolation based on these numbers would indicate usage in 2030 totalling 6.2 Gt oe for oil, 5.73 Gt oe for coal and 5.0 Gt oe (gas).
Oil ((CH2)n) is oxidized thus on combustion: (CH2)n + 1.5n O2 -> nCO2 + nH20 i.e. 14 Gt oil yields 44 Gt CO2 and 1 Gt oil yields 3.14 Gt CO2. Accordingly, CO2 from burning oil, coal and gas in 2030 is projected to be 19.5 Gt CO2 (oil), 18.0 Gt CO2 (coal), 15.7 Gt CO2 (gas) and 53.2 Gt CO2 in total, as compared to the figures for 2018 of 14.4 Gt CO2 (oil), 12.2 Gt CO2 (coal) and 10.0 Gt CO2 (gas) with a total of 36.6 Gt CO2 (similar to the 34.0 Gt CO2-equivalent of emissions in 2018 according to Figure 1(k)). Solar and wind use started to increase substantially in about 2000, and by 2018 had reached 0.45 Gt oe/year (Gt 1.4 Gt CO2 emissions replaced in 2018) (+373%/decade) i.e. solar and wind renewable energy was only 3.7% of the total energy mix in 2018.
Comments. Public comments about the serious threat of global warming due to greenhouse gases (GHGs) like CO2 have been made publicly by scientists since the mid-1980s. It is accordingly quite shocking that oil, coal and gas usage has nevertheless s remorselessly increased at a constant rate over this 40 year period. Indeed in 2017 the pro-coal Treasurer (and now present PM) of climate criminal Australia, Scott Morrison, brought a lump of coal into Parliament, idiotically declaring “This is coal. Don’t be afraid. Don’t be scared” [30]. A slightly more optimistic assessment of this bleak data is that annual coal use remained constant at 3.85 Gt oe (12.1 Gt CO2) per year in the period 2011-2018, suggesting that global coal use, if not decreasing, may actually be finally flattening out. Further on the positive side, Frontier Group reports (2019): “America produces almost five times as much renewable electricity from the sun and the wind as in 2009, and currently wind and solar energy provide nearly 10 percent of our nation’s electricity” [31]. Renewable Energy reports re China (2019): “Power generation from renewable energy sources reached 1,870 TWh in 2018, an increase of 170 TWh and making up 26.7 percent of the country’s total. Hydro contributed 1,200 TWh (up 3.2 percent), wind – 366 TWh (up 20 percent), PV – 177.5 TWh (up 50 percent) and biomass – 90.6 TWh (up 14 percent)” [32]. Of course many companies, towns, cities and countries have already achieved 100% renewable energy [33]. The Germany-based Energy Watch Group: “The new study by the Energy Watch Group and [Finnish] LUT University is the first of its kind to outline a 1.5°C scenario with a cost-effective, cross-sectoral, technology-rich global 100% renewable energy system that does not build on negative CO2 emission technologies. The scientific modelling study simulates a total global energy transition in the electricity, heat, transport and desalination sectors by 2050. It is based on four and a half years of research and analysis of data collection, as well as technical and financial modelling by 14 scientists. This proves that the transition to 100% renewable energy is economically competitive with the current fossil and nuclear-based system, and could reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the energy system to zero even before 2050” [34].
Figure 1 (i). Air transport (billion passengers carried per year) was biphasic linear, rising from 0.6 (1979) -> 1.60 (2000) (0.048 per year) to 2.3 (2007) -> 4.0 (2017) (0.170 per year) with a transition in the 2000s (overall + 63.3% per decade). Extrapolating from the most recent, faster rate of change in 2007-2017 yields an estimated 6.2 billion passengers carried per year in 2030.
Comments. This peripatesis is a scandalous profligacy. Thus, for example, I am domiciled in remote Melbourne Downunder in the Southern Hemisphere en route to Antarctica but am interviewed by a progressive North American radio station by Skype for free. Indeed Australia’s Nobel Prize-winning writer Patrick White commented thus on public events to celebrate the bicentenary of the British invasion of Australia in 1788: “They are flogging camels from East to West and from West to East, and running from City to Surf and from Surf to City. Why don’t they just stay home, cook themselves a nice meal and curl up with a good book?”. One notes that our climate heroine, 16 year old Greta Thunberg, recently travelled from Sweden to New York to attend the 2019 UN Climate Summit on a high-technology yacht. Energy use in megajoules per person per kilometre (MJ/passenger-km) is about 0.1 (bicycle), 0.2 (walking person), 1 (train), plane (2) , and car (5) (a 2 tonne car transporting an 80kg person is highly inefficient) [35].
*Figure 1(j). Total institutional assets divested (trillion US dollars) linearly increased from 0.2 (2014) to 7.5 (2018), an average of $1.8 billion /year (+28,100,000 % per decade for the period 2013 to 2018). Extrapolating from this linear increase yields an estimate of $28.9 trillion in assets divested in 2030.
Comments. To put this excellent outcome in context, world GDP was $86.3 trillion in 2018, extrapolates to $120.7 trillion in 2030 (see discussion about Figure 1 (e) [1] above), and thus total institutional assets divested as a per cent of GDP are estimated to rise from 8.7% in 2014 to 23.9% in 2010. These divestment decisions are not “political’ or “ideological” as the climate change denialist Trumpists assert (notably in climate criminal Coalition-ruled Australia) but are made not just for saving the planet and “corporate image” reasons but also for critical, hard-headed, market-based reasons connected with avoidance of “stranded assets” e.g. coal reserves that will be unusable if a proper Carbon Price is applied [36-41]. Thus the fundamental 3 Laws of Thermodynamics state (1) the energy of a closed system remains constant, (2) the entropy (disorder, chaos, lack of information content) increases to a maximum, and (3) zero entropy for a perfect crystal at absolute zero. Polya’s 3 Laws of Economics correspondingly declare that (1) Profit equals Price minus Cost of Production, (2) deception about Cost of Production rises to a maximum, and (3) no jobs, production, price or profit on a dead planet [42]. The extraordinary deception about the Cost of Production in the World’s present Carbon Economy is illustrated by the determination by International Monetary fund (IMF) that the average global Carbon Price is presently a paltry circa $2 per tonne CO2-equivalent [43, 44] whereas Dr Chris Hope of 90-Nobel Laureate Cambridge University has estimated a damage-related Carbon Price of $200 per tonne CO2-equivalent [45]. The resultant global Carbon Debt (to be inescapably met by future generations) is about $200 trillion and increasing at about S$10 trillion per year [37].
Figure 1(k), CO2 emissions (gigatonnes CO2 equivalent per year), showed a triphasic linear increase from 18.0 (1979) to 22.5 (1997) (0.25 per year) , through 22.5 (1997) to 30.0 (2009) (0.63 per year) and thence 30.0 (2009) to 34.0 (2018) (0.44 per year). The overall increase was +17.9% per decade, 1.7% per year). Extrapolating using the most recent rate of 0.44 gigatonnes CO2-equivalent per year yields emissions of 39.3 gigatonnes CO2 equivalent per year in 2030.
Comments. As discussed above (Figure 1 (c)), when World Bank analysts took land use and a 20 year-based GWP for CH4 into account, the global annual greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution rose from 41.8 gigatonnes CO2-equivalent (Food and Agricultural Organization, FAO) to 63.8 gigatonnes CO2-equivalent [19]. Applying a correction factor of 63.8/41.8 = 1.5 to the data of Ripple et al. (2019) gives a present rate of increase of GHG pollution of 0.44 x 1.5 = 0.66 gigatonnes CO2-equivalent per year. Applying this revised rate of increase to an estimated annual GHG pollution of 63.8 gigatonnes CO2-equivalent in 2009 provides a revised estimate of 69.7 Gt CO2-equivalent per year in 2018 and 77.7 Gt CO2-equivalent per year in 2030. On this basis we can see that the 2010 onwards Terminal Carbon Pollution Budget for a 75% chance of avoiding +2C was exceeded in 2018 (602 Gt CO2-equivalent emitted in the period 2010-2018).
Figure 1(l), Per capita emissions (tonnes CO2 equivalent per year) fell from 4.23 (1979) to 3.83 (1997) ( - 0.022 per year) , then rose from 3.83 (1997) to 4.47 (2010) (+ 0.049 per year) and have remained roughly constant at 4.50 since 2006) (the overall average being 2.15% per decade, 0.2% per year ). One could guess than if the post-2006 trend continues then per capita emissions would remain at about 4.5 tonnes CO2 equivalent per person per year in 2030 i.e. with increases in GHG pollution (Figure 1 (k) ) matching an increase in population (Figure 1(a) ).
Comments. As discussed above in relation to Figure 1 (k), these per capita emissions estimates understate actual GHG pollution with land use and CH4 properly considered. Thus taking such considerations into account increases annual GHG pollution from 41.8 gigatonnes CO2-equivalent per year to 63.8 gigatonnes CO2-equivalent per year in 2009 [19] and a world average GHG pollution in 2009 of 63.8 gigatonnes CO2-equivalent per year /6.9 billion = 9.2 tonnes CO2-equivalent per person [46, 47]. Annual per capita greenhouse gas pollution per se is a flawed measure of national culpability for this because it ignores rich countries outsourcing industrial pollution to China, and impoverished countries compelled to pollute to barely survive. A better measure of culpability is weighted annual per capita greenhouse gas pollution taking relative per capita income into account, this revealing that the worst polluters on this basis include the rich Anglosphere countries of the US, UK, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Ireland [47].
*Figure 1(m). GHG emissions covered by carbon pricing (%) rose linearly from 3.0 (2007) to 15.0 (2017) (+ 1.2% per year) (with an overall increase of 256% per decade or 25.6% per year). Extrapolating this linear increase yields 30.6% of GHG emissions covered by carbon pricing in 2030.
Comments. Of course the crucial matter is the magnitude of the carbon pricing. Thus Dr Chris Hope of 90-Nobel-Laureate University of Cambridge has estimated a damage-related Carbon Price of $200 per tonne CO2-equivalent [44] whereas the IMF recently estimated that the global average Carbon Price is a paltry circa $2 per tonne CO2-equivalent [43, 44].
Figure 1(n). Carbon Price ($ per tonne CO2 emissions) was assertedly about 53 (1990-2005) and then decreased to a steady circa about 15 (2012-2018) (overall -33% per decade, -3.3% per year).
Comments. I have no idea how they arrived at these estimates. Thus as discussed above in relation to Figure 1(j), the IMF in 2019 noted an average global Carbon Price of about $2 per tonne CO2-equivalent [43, 44].
Figure 1(o). Fossil fuel subsidies (billion US$ per year) increased from 440 (2010) to 550 (2012) (+55/year), thence decreased from 550 (2012) to 260 (- 73 /year) and then increased from 260 (2016) to 430 (+85/year). The overall change was -1.08% per decade (-0.1% per year).
Comments. Again it is not clear how exactly these numbers were arrived at but one assumes that they are an amalgam of such things as transport subsidies and tax relief components. However the IMF recently stated that the global average Carbon Price is a mere $2 per ton of CO2 [43, 44] as compared to the estimated damage-related Carbon Price of $200 per tonne CO2 [45]. The difference - $198 per tonne CO2 – represents a huge direct subsidy of fossil fuel. In 2018 the carbon emissions were 69.7 gigatonnes per year (properly taking land use and CH4 into account (see discussion re Figure 1(k)) and thus the subsidy in 2018 (ignoring transport subsidies and tax relief) was $198 per tonne CO2 x 69.7 gigatonnes CO2 per year = $13,800 billion per year or about 35 times greater than the mean fossil fuel subsidy of about $400 per year claimed in Figure 1(o).
2019 WARNING FIGURE 2 DATA.
Figure 2(a). Carbon dioxide (CO2 parts per million) rose from 339 (1980) to 407 (2018) for an average of 1.79 ppm CO2 per year (+ 4.98% per decade, +0.5% per year) and an extrapolation-derived 427 ppm CO2 in 2030.
Comments. Numerous climate scientists, coral scientists , biologists and science-informed commentators argue that we need to draw down atmospheric CO2 from the present deadly and dangerous 410 parts per million to the pre-Industrial Revolution level of about 300 ppm CO2 for a safe and sustainable planet for all peoples and all species [48, 49]. Thus, for example, coral scientists inform us that world coral started dying when the atmospheric CO2 reached 320 ppm CO2 and that a return to about 300 ppm CO2 is needed for sustainability of world coral reefs [48-51]. However while it is technically possible in all kinds of ways to drawdown atmospheric CO2 to 300 ppm CO2, the cost of doing so is enormous [41, 52-54]. Professor James Hansen (of 96 Nobel Laureate Columbia University): “One ppm of CO2 is 2.12 billion tons of carbon or about 7.77 billion tons of CO2. Recently Keith et al. (2018) achieved a cost breakthrough in carbon capture, demonstrated with a pilot plant in Canada. Cost of carbon capture, not including the cost of transportation and storage of the CO2, is $113-232 per ton of CO2. Thus the cost of extracting 1 ppm of CO2 from the atmosphere is $878-1803 billion. In other words, the cost, in a single year, of closing the gap between reality and the IPCC scenario that limits climate change to +1.5°C is already about $1 trillion. And that is without the cost of transporting and storing the CO2, or consideration of whether there will be citizen objection to that transportation and storage. This annual cost will rise rapidly, unless there is a rapid slowdown in carbon emissions… cost of CO2 storage… has been estimated as $10-20/tCO2” [52].Taking Professor Hansen’s data, and including his estimates of the cost of transport and storage of CO2, indicates that this “best so far” cost of atmospheric CO2 draw-down is $123-252/tCO2. Accordingly, the upper estimate of the cost of reducing the atmospheric CO2 by 1 ppm = 1 ppm x 7.77 billion ton CO2/ppm x $252/ton CO2 = $1,958 billion. Thus the upper estimate of the cost of the present 1.79 ppm /year increase in atmospheric CO2 is about $3,500 billion. Of course the GHGs include not just CO2 but also methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) [17]. While the atmospheric CO2 is presently about 412 ppm CO2, the CO2-equivalent (taking other GHGs into account) is about 500 ppm CO2-equivalent [55].
Figure 2(b). Methane (CH4 parts per billion) increased in a quasi-linear fashion from 1648 (1984) to 1854 (2017) for an average of 6.2 ppb per year (+3.65% per decade, 0.37% per year). Extrapolating from this average yields 1,935 ppb CH4 in 2030.
Comments. There are huge amounts of CH4 present as frozen H2O -CH4 clathrates in the Arctic tundra and Arctic ocean sea bed . It is estimated that 50 Gt of CH4 will be released in the Arctic in coming decades [56]. The Global Warming Potential (GWP) of CH4 on a 20 year time frame and with aerosol impacts considered is 105 times that of CO2 [16]. The German WBGU (2009) and the Australian Climate Commission (2013) have estimated that no more than 600 billion tonnes of CO2 can be emitted between 2010 and zero emissions in 2050 if the world is to have a 75% chance of avoiding a catastrophic 2C temperature rise [20, 21]. The 50 Gt (billion tonnes) CH4 in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is thus equivalent to 50 billion tonnes CH4 x 105 tonnes CO2-equivalent/tonne CH4 = 5,250 tonnes CO2-e or about nine (9) times more than the world’s Terminal Carbon (GHG) Pollution Budget. We are doomed unless we can stop this Arctic CH4 release [57]. CO2 and CH4 are the major GHG contributors to the atmospheric 500 CO2-equivalent [59].
Figure 2 (c). Nitrous oxide (N2O parts per billion) increased in a quasi-linear fashion from 301 (1979) to 331 (2018) for an average of 0.77 ppb per year (+2.46% per decade, +0.28% per year). Using this average, extrapolation yields a 2030 value of 340 ppm N2O .
Comments. N2O is derived from oxidation of nitrogenous agricultural fertilizers and has a Global Warming Potential (GWP) relative to the same mass of CO2 of 289 on a 20-year time frame (298 on a 100 year time frame) [17]. Nitrous oxide (N2O, “laughing gas”), like other GHGs, is not a laughing matter.
Figure 2(d). Surface temperature change (oC) increased in a quasi-linear fashion from 0.21 (1979) to 0.91 (2018) for an average of 0.18 oC per decade (0.018 oC per year). Conservatively extrapolating this 4-decade trend yields + 1.13 oC in 2030.
Comments. The global average surface temperature increase relative to 1880 is about +1.1 oC but according to the IPCC it will reach 1.5 oC in 10 years’ time on the present pollution trajectory []. Indeed David Spratt and Ian Dunlop: “Another example [of scientific reticence] is the recent IPCC 1.5°C report, which projected that warming would continue at the current rate of ~0.2°C per decade and reach the 1.5°C mark around 2040. However the 1.5°C boundary is likely to be passed in half that time, around 2030, and the [catastrophic] 2°C boundary around 2045, due to accelerating anthropogenic emissions, decreased aerosol loading and changing ocean circulation conditions” [58]. Burning sulphur-containing coal generates sulphur dioxide (SO2) which forms global dimming sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere – on cessation of coal burning, the washing out of sulphate aerosols from the atmosphere will result in a rapid increase in temperature. Paleoclimatologist and Earth scientist Dr Andrew Glikson (2019: “The planetary consequences of injecting > 910 billion tons CO2 into the atmosphere are playing in real time. The Arctic Circle is suffering from an unprecedented number of wildfires in the latest sign of a climate crisis… As the globe warms, to date by a mean of near ~1.5 oC, or ~2.0oC when the masking effects of sulphur dioxide and other aerosols are considered, and by a mean of ~2.3oC in the Polar Regions, the expansion of warm tropical latitudes and the polar-ward migration of climate zones ensue in large scale droughts in subtropical latitudes such as in inland Australia and southern Africa” [59].
Figure 2 (e). Minimum Arctic sea ice (million km2) decreased from 7.4 (1979) to 4.5 (2018) for an average of –0.074 km2 per year (- 11.7% per decade, -1.2% per year ). Extrapolation using this 4 decade average yields 3,612km2 by 2030. If this rate of loss was maintained then there would be zero (0) minimum (Summer) sea ice in 2076.
Comments. The melting of the high albedo (reflectivity) Arctic sea ice generates black, low albedo sea which absorbs more solar radiation, warms and thence melts more sea ice in a positive feed-back loop. In addition, broken ice enables further sea ice break-up in storms. I painted a huge painting called “Terra” that included the Arctic and Antarctic polar ice caps [60], but unfortunately the Arctic ice cap will be gone in coming decades. The Arctic summer sea ice will be gone before 2050 with Professor James Anderson of Harvard University predicting that the summer sea ice will disappear in the 2020s [61]. This sea ice loss has a big ecological impact (notably on polar bears) and the warming of the Arctic Ocean impacts ocean currents.
Figure 2(f). Greenland ice mass decrease (gigatonnes, Gt) was quasi-linear and went from – 200 Gt (2003) to -3,700 Gt (2016) for an average of -269 Gt per year (-2,610 Gt per decade as estimated by the paper). Extrapolating yields an ice loss of 7,466 Gt by 2030.
Comments. The Guardian has summarized consonant recent research findings (2019): “Greenland lost about 280bn tons of ice per year between 2002 and 2016, enough to raise the worldwide sea level by 0.03 inches annually. If all of Greenland’s vast ice sheet, 3km thick in places, was to melt, global sea levels would rise by seven meters, or more than 20ft, drowning most coastal settlements. The rate of loss hasn’t been even, however, with the ice melting four times faster in 2013 compared with 2003’ [62].
Figure 2(g). Antarctic ice mass change (gigatons) decreased quasi-linearly from -150 (2002) to – 1,750 (2018) for an average loss of -100 Gt per year (-1,230 Gt per decade estimated by the paper). Assuming an average loss of -100 Gt ice per year , extrapolation yields -2,950 Gt ice by 2030.
Comments. Madeleine Stone writing in National Geographic (2019): “The frozen mountains and icy plains of Antarctica hold enough water to raise global sea levels nearly 200 feet. Thankfully, over three-quarters of the continent is girded by ice shelves, the floating extensions of glaciers that protect the land-bound ice behind them… in rapidly-melting parts of West Antarctica, “upside down rivers” of warm water are gnawing away at the ice shelves’ weak spots from below… [blue] lakes are bad news for ice. Because of their dark color, they absorb more of the sun’s energy, triggering further warming. And under certain conditions, clusters of lakes can drain rapidly into the ice below them, causing it to break apart in a process known as “lake-induced hydrofracturing”… many of them [East Antarctica blue lakes] seemed to be clustered in regions of ice shelves that could be vulnerable to collapse via hydrofracturing” [63]. Georgia Rose Grant and Timothy Naish writing in Phys.Org (2019): “We know that our planet has experienced warmer periods in the past, during the Pliocene geological epoch around three million years ago. Our research, published today, shows that up to one third of Antarctica's ice sheet melted during this period, causing sea levels to rise by as much as 20 meters above present levels in coming centuries… The Pliocene was the last time atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were above 400 parts per million and Earth's temperature was 2°C warmer than pre-industrial times.” [64]. The melting of Antarctic sea ice has the successive ecological impacts of a decrease in ice-associated phytoplankton, a decrease in krill and thence a decrease in krill-eating whales and penguins [65, 66]. Most of the Earth’s ice resides in the East and West Antarctic ice sheets that comprise about 90 percent of Earth’s fresh water in 26.5 million cubic kilometers of ice, and that if melted would raise sea level by 60 meters [67, 68]. Some scientists fear that the tipping point for long-term and irreversible West Antarctic ice sheet melting may have been reached [69].
Figure 2(h). Glacier thickness change (meter of water equivalent) was -1 (1979) to -21 (2018) for an overall average change of -0.15 /year . The quasi-linear change in the 2100s was -14 (2010) to -21 (2018) , this yielding a change of -0.88 meters per year. Using the latter estimate , extrapolation yields a decrease by 2030 of 31.6 meters.
Comments. Glaciers are melting around the world [70]. The tipping point for long-term, centuries time-frame and irreversible West Antarctic ice sheet melting may have already been reached [69].
Figure 2(i). Ocean heat content change (1022 joules) monotonically increased from 0 (1979) to 21.75 (2016) for a change of 0.59 per year (+ 6.18 x 1022 joules per decade). However the change was quasi-linear from 7.75 (2000) to 21.75 (2016) for a change of 0.875 per year. Extrapolating this latter rate yields an increase in ocean heat content by 2030 of 34.0 x 1022 joules .
Comments. 90% of the extra heat has ended up in the ocean. We have great trouble grasping large and small numbers . Thus 1 joule is the heat needed to raise the temperature of 1 g of water by 0.24 °C [71] (e.g. roughly the warming of the dregs of a glass of cold water in 10 seconds at room temperature). 34.0 x 1022 joules is the energy of 10 million 1 megaton thermonuclear bombs [72]. The Guardian has estimated that the total heat taken up by the oceans in the last 150 years is equivalent to about 5 Hiroshima size (10 kiloton) atomic bombs exploding per second [73].
Figure 2(j). Ocean acidity measured as pH (log10 of H+ concentration in moles per litre) declined in a linear fashion from pH 8.114 (1979) to pH 8.064 (2017) i.e. by 0.0013 pH per year (+4.12% acidity increase per decade, +0.4% acidity increase per year). Extrapolation yields a pH of 8.047 in 2013.
Comments. Ocean acidification impacts all ocean organisms with calcareous exoskeletons. About one-third of the carbon dioxide (CO2) released into the atmosphere as a result of human activity has been absorbed by the oceans, where it partitions into the ionized forms of carbonic acid, this leading to ocean acidification, one of the major threats to marine ecosystems and particularly to calcifying organisms such as corals (animals with photosynthetic zooanthellae symbionts) , foraminifera (single-celled eukaryote amoeboid protists with a calcareous external shell ), coccolithophores (photosynthetic algae that generate calcareous plates) and lobster, crab, shrimp and krill crustaceans with food chain implications) [17].
Figure 2 (k). Sea level change relative to the 20-year mean (mm) increased linearly from – 34 (1993) to + 46 (2017) to give a rise of 3.33 mm per year (+31.4 mm per decade or +3.14 per year according to the paper). Extrapolation yields a sea level rise in 2030 of 89 mm (relative to that in 2005) and 123 mm (relative to that in 1993).
Comments. US NOAA Climate.org: “Since the start of the satellite sea level record in 1993, the average rate of sea level has been about one-eighth of an inch (3.1 mm) per year. The rising water level is mostly due to a combination of meltwater from glaciers and ice sheets and thermal expansion of seawater as it warms… Scientists are very confident that global mean sea level will rise at least 8 inches (0.2 meter), but no more than 6.6 feet (2.0 meters) by 2100, depending on the energy decisions we make” [74]. At the present about +1.1C low-lying Island Nations and low-lying parts of mega-delta nations (e.g. Bangladesh and India) are already being devastated by a combination of higher sea level, warming-exacerbated and energized severe storms and storm surges [75, 76]. US Climate Central has estimated that 190 million people will be living in areas that are projected to be below the high-tide mark in 2100, and that 110 million people are presently living in these lands, protected by sea walls [77, 78].
Dr Andrew Glikson (an Earth and paleo-climate research scientist at Australian National University, Canberra, Australia) (2009): “For some time now, climate scientists warned that melting of subpolar permafrost and warming of the Arctic Sea (up to 4 degrees C during 2005–2008 relative to the 1951–1980) are likely to result in the dissociation of methane hydrates and the release of this powerful greenhouse gas into the atmosphere (methane: 62 times the infrared warming effect of CO2 over 20 years and 21 times over 100 years) … The amount of carbon stored in Arctic sediments and permafrost is estimated as 500–2500 Gigaton Carbon (GtC), as compared with the world’s total fossil fuel reserves estimated as 5000 GtC. Compare with the 700 GtC of the atmosphere, which regulate CO2 levels in the range of 180–300 parts per million and land temperatures in a range of about – 50 to + 50 degrees C, which allowed the evolution of warm blooded mammals. The continuing use of the atmosphere as an open sewer for industrial pollution has already added some 305 GtC to the atmosphere together with land clearing and animal-emitted methane. This raised CO2 levels to 387 ppm CO2 to date [412 ppm CO2 in 2019] , leading toward conditions which existed on Earth about 3 million years (Ma) ago (mid-Pliocene), when CO2 levels rose to about 400 ppm, temperatures to about 2–3 degrees C and sea levels by about 25 +/- 12 metres” [79]. The atmospheric CO2 has now reached about 410 ppm CO2 [5, 6]..
Figure 2 (l). Area burned in the United States (million hectares per year) involves very scattered data. However , assuming the authors’ quasi-linear best fit involving an increase from 0.9 (1983) to 3.2 (2018) , one can estimate an increase of 0.066 million hectares per year (+ 44.1% per decade, +4.4% per year). Extrapolating from this average yields an estimate of 4.0 million hectares burned in 2030.
Comments. In 2019 alone there have been massive forest fires in California, the Amazon and continent-wide in Australia. The Guardian Australia: “The link between rising greenhouse gas emissions and increased bushfire risk is complex but, according to major science agencies, clear. Climate change does not create bushfires but it can and does make them worse. A number of factors contribute to bushfire risk, including [elevated] temperature, fuel load, dryness, [and] wind speed and [decreased] humidity… The year coming into the 2019-20 summer has been unusually warm and dry for large parts of Australia. Above-average temperatures now occur most years and 2019 had the fifth-driest start to the year on record, and the driest since 1970. Australia recorded its hottest month in January 2019, its third-hottest July and its hottest October day in some areas, among other temperature records” [80]. Phys.org has listed 10 ways in which climate change can variously make wildfires worse: (1) hot, dry, windy weather, (2) more plant fuel, (3) change of plant species to more flammable, dryness-compatible species, (4) last-drop transpiration by thirsty plants, (5) more lightning, (6) differential warming of the Arctic and a weakened jet stream (this sinking drier and hotter air), (7) the periodic El Nino events lead to decreased rainfall, increased temperatures and increased fire risk in Indonesia and eastern Australia, (8) increase in the intensity of bushfires to unstoppable, (9) increased winter survival of pine beetles with increased flammable dead wood in Canadian boreal forests, (10) positive feedback from increased CO2 -> increased warming -> increased forest fires -> increased CO2 - > increased warming -> … [81]. The link between global warming and more forest fires has been documented by expert scientists for many years (e.g. see [82]).
In Australia the risk of bushfires has been decreased by fuel reduction burning of forest undergrowth, but with global warming the “fire seasons” have been extending into winter, and fuel reduction burning has been increasingly limited because of conditions being too impossibly wet or too dangerously dry. The rational alternative is large-scale mechanical harvesting of undesirable undergrowth, scrub and grasslands with subsequent profitable conversion of this cellulosic biomass into biochar (carbon, C) through renewable energy-driven anaerobic pyrolysis at 400-700C. The biochar can be either simply safely sequestered underground or used to add carbon to improve arable soils. It is estimated that potential biochar from existing agricultural and forestry waste is equivalent to annual carbon pollution from industry (12 Gt C per year) [83]. Such harvesting for biochar production would be profitable (circa $200 per tonne biochar) and would avoid the disastrous positive feedback loop from uselessly burning biomass (indeed such biomass could be harvested and used to generate renewable energy). In Australia unharvested grasslands are presently burning (and burning homes) while desperate farmers in drought-ravaged Eastern Australia are going broke paying for feed for their otherwise starving [methanogenic] livestock.
Figure 2(m). Extreme weather/climate/hydrological events (numbers per year) have been monotonically increasing in a tri-phasic quasi-linear fashion from 200 (1980) to 400 (1994) (an increase of 14.3 events per year), a constant of circa 400 per year in the period 1994-2004, and then a linear increase from 440 (2004) to 800 (2019) (an increase of 32.7 events per year) (+ 43.8% per decade and +4.4% per year overall). Assuming an increase of 32.7 events per year , extrapolation yields 1,160 events in 2030 or more than 3 such events per day.
Figure 2 (n). Annual losses due to weather/climate/hydrological events ($billions) and excluding 2 exceptional outlier events, increased in a quasi-linear fashion from 20 (1980) to 196 (2018) for a rate of 4.63 per year (+83.7% per decade, 8.4% per year). Extrapolation yields an annual cost of $2,452 billion in 2030.
Comments. These estimates of annual costs of pollution are in reality huge under-estimates. Thus we should be decreasing atmospheric CO2 pollution rather than increasing it. In the discussion about Figure 2(a) the upper estimate of the cost of reversing a 1 ppm increase in atmospheric CO2 is about $1,958 billion. Accordingly the cost of reversing the present annual increase of 1.79 ppm CO2 is $3,500 billion. The upper estimate of draw-down of atmospheric CO2 from the present observed monthly mean of 412 ppm CO2 to a safe and sustainable 300 ppm CO2 is 412 ppm CO2 x $1,958 per ppm CO2 = $807 trillion or about the 2 times the accumulated wealth of the world [86, 87]. Approaching the problem from the estimate of a damage-related carbon price of $200 per tonne CO2 [45], one can estimate that the World has a Carbon Debt of about $200 trillion that is increasing at about $10 trillion per year. Australia has a Carbon Debt of $5 trillion that is increasing at $400 billion per year and at $40,000 per head per year for under-30 year old Australians [37]. This is an inescapable Carbon Debt that will have to be repaid by future generations. Unlike conventional debt (that can be variously evaded by default, bankruptcy, or printing money), this enormous Carbon Debt is inescapable. Thus unless sea walls are built, cities, towns and arable land will be inundated, and unless forests are protected by instant dousing of ignition points, global forests will disappear in unstoppable fire storms. In general, unless this Carbon Debt is met by requisite protective measures, human assets from homes, buildings and infrastructure to farms and forests will be uninsurable.
What needs to be urgently done.
This Second Warning to the World [1] concludes with suggested actions under 6 headings that are summarized below [with my numerically-based amplifications comments appended].
(1). Energy. There should be a rapid transition away from dirty energy (coal, oil, gas and other carbon fuels) to 100% renewable energy, with this associated with assistance to developing economies , cessation of fossil fuel exploitation, and application of proper Carbon Prices.
Comment. There must be a rapid transition within about 10 years to 100% renewable energy, coupled with cessation of fossil fuel exploitation, carbon fuel-based public and private transport, and of deforestation and land clearing. The environmental and social cost of carbon pollution should be “fully borne” by the polluters with a damage-related Carbon Price of $200 per tonne CO2-equivalent).
(2). Short-lived pollutants. Short-lived pollutants such as methane (CH4), deadly carbon particles (e.g. PM2.5) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) need to be eliminated.
Comment. Major sources of CH4 (notably anaerobic swamps from deforestation and methanogenic livestock), deadly carbon particulates (from carbon fuel burning including fossil fuel burning and forest fires) and man-made HFCs (as well as other man-generated GHGs such as SF6 and NF3) must be eliminated. 8 million annual pollution deaths from the long-term impacts of air pollution will be progressively eliminated in coming decades through elimination of all carbon fuel burning. The relatively long-term GHG pollutant CO2 must be urgently drawn down from the present damaging and dangerous 412 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere to yield a circa 300 ppm CO2 that is a safe and sustainable for all peoples and all species [48, 49].
(3). Nature. “We must protect and restore Earth's ecosystems. Phytoplankton, coral reefs, forests, savannas, grasslands, wetlands, peatlands, soils, mangroves, and sea grasses contribute greatly to sequestration of atmospheric CO2” [1].
Comment. The presently ongoing and massive speciescide and ecocide of the Anthropocene Era is associated with an extinction rate 100-1,000 times greater than normal [91] and heads the world towards man-made omnicide and terracide. Any species is irreplaceable and accordingly priceless. There must be cessation of deforestation and land clearing with massive re-afforestation and ecosystem restoration. Dr Andre Balmford and colleagues have stated that “We estimate that the overall benefit:cost ratio of an effective global program for the conservation of remaining wild nature is at least 100:1”[92].
(4). Food. “Eating mostly plant-based foods while reducing the global consumption of animal products” [1].
Comment. There must be global vegetarian diet and replacement of cow-derived milk with plant substitutes (soybean and almond milk). The deadly food-for-fuel Biofuel Genocide obscenity must be stopped. Food adequacy involves cessation of global inequity, population growth, economic growth, GHG pollution, sea level rise, soil salinization, deforestation and damaging land use.
(5). Economy. “Our goals need to shift from GDP growth and the pursuit of affluence toward sustaining ecosystems and improving human well-being by prioritizing basic needs and reducing inequality” [1].
Comment. There must be rapid halving of economic output (economic de-growth) with the burden overwhelmingly borne by the rich global North to permit the global South [7]. “For everyone in the world to have an American lifestyle, we would need seven planets, and three to live as Europeans” [13].
(6). Population. “Still increasing by roughly 80 million people per year, or more than 200,000 per day (figure 1a–b), the world population must be stabilized—and, ideally, gradually reduced—within a framework that ensures social integrity.” [1].
Comment. The rich European population is declining, but not fast enough, and the impoverished African population is expanding impossibly. The world population needs to halve as soon as possible [7]. Present projections are for a sustainable human population of only 0.5-1.0 million by 2100 [8].
Final comments.
The 2019 “World scientists’ warning of a climate emergency” [1] sets out disastrous, quasi-linear trends in 21 out of 24 “parameter versus time plots” variously covering the 1979-2019 time period. The only hopeful trends were decline in human fertility (Figure 1(b)), an increase in institutional divestment from fossil fuels (Figure 1(j) and an increase in GHG emissions covered by carbon pricing (Figure 1(m)). Because these trends were quasi-linear it was possible to plausibly extrapolate to estimate levels of all these parameters in 2030.
Despite scientists being aware of the greenhouse effect for 150 years, and having warned politicians of the increasing seriousness of global warming since the mid-1980s, the World is now in a dire situation in which catastrophic plus 2C temperature rise is now effectively unavoidable [93-99]. Thus paleoclimatologist and earth scientist Dr Andrew Glikson: “As the globe warms, to date by a mean of near ~1.5 oC, or ~2.0oC when the masking effects of sulphur dioxide and other aerosols are considered, and by a mean of ~2.3oC in the Polar Regions” [59].
Nevertheless decent people are obliged to do everything they can to make the future “less bad’ for future generations. Eminent physicist Professor Stephen Hawking has succinctly warned [my emphasis added]: “We see great peril if governments and societies do not take action NOW to render nuclear weapons obsolete and to prevent further climate change” [93, 94].
What can people do? Informed by the science [1], decent people around the world must (a) inform everyone they can about the worsening Climate Emergency, Climate Genocide and Intergenerational Inequity, (b) urge a climate revolution (peaceful and non-violent of course) with hundreds of millions out in the streets inspired by the likes of teenage activist Greta Thunberg, and (c) urge and apply Boycotts, Divestment and Sanctions against all people, politicians, parties, collectives, corporations and countries disproportionately involved in the worsening Climate Genocide that is presently set to kill 10 billion people this century en route to a sustainable human population of merely 0.5-1.0 billion in 2100 [8].
References.
[1]. William Ripple et al.., “World scientists’ warning of a climate emergency”, BioScience, 5 November 2019: https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/biz088/5610806 .
[2]. William J. Ripple et al., 15,364 signatories from 184 countries, “World scientists’ warning to Humanity: a second notice”, Bioscience, 13 November 2017: https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/bix125/4605229 .
[3]. Gideon Polya, “Over 15,000 scientists issue dire warning to humanity on catastrophic climate change and biodiversity loss”, Countercurrents, 20 November 2017: https://countercurrents.org/2017/11/20/over-15000-scientists-issue-dire-warning-to-humanity-on-catastrophic-climate-change-and-biodiversity-loss/ .
[4]. UN Population Division: https://population.un.org/wpp/DataQuery/.
[5]. US NOAA, “Monthly average Maua Loa CO2”: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ .
[6]. US NOAA, “Full Mauna Loa CO2 record”: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/full.html .
[7]. Gideon Polya, “How much negative carbon emissions, negative population growth & negative economic growth is needed to save Planet?” Countercurrents, 28 November 2018: https://countercurrents.org/2018/11/how-much-negative-carbon-emissions-negative-population-growth-negative-economic-growth-is-needed-to-save-planet .
[8]. “Climate Genocide”: https://sites.google.com/site/climategenocide/ .
[9]. “Are we doomed?”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/are-we-doomed .
[10]. “Too late to avoid global warming catastrophe”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/too-late-to-avoid-global-warming .
[11]. “Nuclear weapons ban, end poverty & reverse climate change”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/nuclear-weapons-ban .
[12]. “List of countries by GDP (nominal) per capita”, Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita .
[13]. Irene Banos Ruiz , “China’s new love affair with dogs – as pets, not food – presents environmental problems”, DW, 21 June 2016: https://www.dw.com/en/chinas-new-love-affair-with-dogs-as-pets-not-food-presents-environmental-problems/a-19197523 .
[14]. “Zero population growth”, Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_population_growth.
[15]. Gideon Polya, “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950”, this including an avoidable mortality-related history of every country since Neolithic times and now available for free perusal on the web: http://globalbodycount.blogspot.com.au/2012/01/body-count-global-avoidable-mortality_05.html .
[16]. Drew T. Shindell , Greg Faluvegi, Dorothy M. Koch , Gavin A. Schmidt , Nadine Unger and Susanne E. Bauer , “Improved Attribution of Climate Forcing to Emissions”, Science, 30 October 2009:
Vol. 326 no. 5953 pp. 716-718: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/326/5953/716 and Fig.2: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/326/5953/716.figures-only .
[17]. “2011 climate change course”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/2011-climate-change-course .
[18]. “Gas is not clean energy”: https://sites.google.com/site/gasisnotcleanenergy/ .
[19]. Robert Goodland and Jeff Anfang. “Livestock and climate change. What if the key actors in climate change are … cows, pigs and chickens?”, World Watch, November/December 2009: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/6704/c7a0777c82357704d82b9ae8007c1197cb07.pdf?_ga=2.187734888.1597394103.1556059730-1006954717.1556059730 .
[20]. WBGU, “Solving the climate dilemma: the budget approach”: http://www.ecoequity.org/2009/10/solving-the-climate-dilemma-the-budget-approach/ .
[21]. Australian Climate Commission, “The critical decade 2013: a summary of climate change science, risks and responses”, 2013, p7: http://climatecommission.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/The-Critical-Decade-2013-Summary_lowres.pdf .
[22]. Gideon Polya, “Vegetarianism can help save Planet”, MWC News, 24 January 2011: http://mwcnews.com/focus/analysis/8188-vegetarianism-can-help-save-planet.html .
[23]. Gideon Polya, “Millions join Global School Climate Strike – we are running out of time”, Countercurrents, 22 September 2019: https://countercurrents.org/2019/09/millions-join-global-school-climate-strike-we-are-running-out-of-time .
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