Literature on USDA reports since 1980
What do we know about the accuracy and impact of USDA reports in the corn market?
Publications
Kalli, S., B. Karali, Y. Liu, and M. Gopinath. “Return and Volatility Spillovers Among Major Cotton Markets.” Agribusiness: An International Journal, in press.
Karali, B., O. Isengildina-Massa, and S.H. Irwin. “Is Being Bold Better? Industry Expectations of USDA Corn and Soybean Production Estimates.” Agricultural Economics, in press.
Goswami, A., and B. Karali. 2025. “Effects of Growing-season Weather on the Dynamic Relationships between Biofuel Feedstocks.” Energy Economics 148:108581.
Zhang, S., S. Ferreira, and B. Karali. 2025. “Understanding Public Acceptability of Climate Policies in Europe.” Climate Policy 25(5):725-740.
Augustin, J., M. Gopinath, B. Karali, and Y. Rao. 2025. “Joint Prediction of U.S. Rice Yields and Methane Emissions: A Machine Learning Approach.” IEEE Access 13:70018-70048.
Adenauer, M., M.K. Adjemian, S. Arita, W. Brorsen, J. Cooper, G. Goh, B. Karali, M.L. Mallory, W. Thompson, and J. Yu. 2025. “Impacts of Unilateral U.S. Carbon Policies on Agricultural Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Commodity Markets.” Environmental Research Letters 20(2):024022.
Yoon, B., and B. Karali. 2025. “Efficiency in the Early Stages of Carbon Markets: The Case of the Korean Emissions Trading Scheme.” Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 61(1):125-141.
Isengildina-Massa, O., B. Karali, and S.H. Irwin. 2024. “Are USDA Forecasts Optimal? A Systematic Review.” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 56(3):496-527.
Isengildina-Massa, O., B. Karali, and S.H. Irwin. 2024. "What Do We Know about the Value and Market Impact of USDA Reports?" Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 46(2):698-736.
Yang, Y., and B. Karali. 2024. “A Multivariate Quantile Approach for Testing Asymmetric Price Transmission in a Joint Production Process.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 49(2):371-391.
Goswami, A., B. Karali, and M.K. Adjemian. 2023. "Hedging with Futures during Nonconvergence in Commodity Markets." Journal of Commodity Markets 32:100364.
Goswami, A. and B. Karali. 2022. "The Impact of Fundamentals on Volatility Measures of Agricultural Substitutes." Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics Policy 54(4):723-768.
Goswami, A., M.K. Adjemian, and B. Karali. 2022. "The Impact of Futures Contract Storage Rate Policy on Convergence Expectations in Domestic Commodity Markets." Food Policy 111:102301.
Yang, Y. and B. Karali. 2022. “How Far is too Far for Volatility Transmission?” Journal of Commodity Markets 26:100198.
Liu, H., S. Ferreira, and B. Karali. 2021. “Hurricanes as News? Assessing the Impact of Hurricanes on the Stock Returns of Energy Companies.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 66:102572.
Zhao, C., G. Colson, B. Karali, and G.P. Philippidis. 2021. “Drop-in Ready Jet Biofuel from Carinata: A Real Options Analysis of Processing Plant Investments.” GCB-Bioenergy 13(10):1624-1635.
Isengildina-Massa, O., B. Karali, T.H. Kuethe, and A.L. Katchova. 2021. “Joint Evaluation of the System of USDA's Farm Income Forecasts.” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 43(3):1140-1160.
Isengildina-Massa, O., X. Cao, B. Karali, S.H. Irwin, M.K. Adjemian, and R. Johansson. 2021. “When does USDA Information have the Most Impact on Crop and Livestock Markets?” Journal of Commodity Markets 22:100137.
Isengildina-Massa, O., B. Karali, and S.H. Irwin. (2020) “Can Private Forecasters Beat USDA? Analysis of Relative Accuracy of Crop Acreage and Production Forecasts.” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 52(4):545-561.
Houser, M. and B. Karali. (2020). “How Scary are Food Scares? Evidence from Animal Disease Outbreaks.” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 42(2):283-306.
Karali, B., S.H. Irwin, and O. Isengildina-Massa. (2020). “Supply Fundamentals and Grain Futures Price Movements.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 102(2):548-568.
Karali, B., O. Isengildina-Massa, and S.H. Irwin. (2019). “The Changing Role of USDA Inventory Reports in Livestock Markets.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 44(3):591-604.
Payne, N., B. Karali, and J.H. Dorfman. (2019). “Can Cattle Basis Forecasts Be Improved? A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach.” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 51(2):249-266.
Karali, B., S. Ye, and O.A. Ramirez. (2019). “Event Study of the Crude Oil Futures Market: A Mixed Event Response Model.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 101(3):960-985.
Karali, B., O. Isengildina-Massa, S.H. Irwin, M.K. Adjemian, and R. Johansson. (2019). “Are USDA Reports Still News to Changing Crop Markets?” Food Policy 84:66-76.
Wu, X., J.H. Dorfman, and B. Karali. (2018). “The Impact of Data Frequency on Market Efficiency Tests of Commodity Futures Prices,” Journal of Futures Markets 38(6):696-714.
Karali, B., K. McNew, and W.N. Thurman. (2018). “Price Discovery and the Basis Effects of Failures to Converge in Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures Markets.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 43(1):1-17.
Isengildina-Massa, O., B. Karali, and S.H. Irwin. (2017). “Do Markets Correct for Smoothing in USDA Crop Production Forecasts? Evidence from Private Analysts and Futures Prices.” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 39(4):559-583.
Xian, H., G. Colson, B. Karali, and M.E. Wetzstein. (2017). “Do Nonrenewable-Energy Prices Affect Renewable-Energy Volatility? The Case of Wood Pellets.” Journal of Forest Economics 28:42-48.
Valizadeh, P., B. Karali, and S. Ferreira. (2017). “Ripple Effects of the 2011 Japan Earthquake on International Stock Markets.” Research in International Business and Finance 41:556-576.
Ye, S. and B. Karali. (2016). “The Informational Content of Inventory Announcements: Intraday Evidence from Crude Oil Futures Market.” Energy Economics 59:349-364.
Xian, H., B. Karali, G. Colson, and M.E. Wetzstein. (2015). “Diesel or Compressed Natural Gas? A Real Options Evaluation of the U.S. Natural Gas Boom on Fuel Choice for Trucking Fleets.” Energy 90(2):1342-1348.
Ferreira, S. and B. Karali. (2015). “Do Earthquakes Shake Stock Markets?” PLoS ONE, 10(7): e0133319. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0133319.
Dorfman, J.H. and B. Karali. (2015). “A Nonparametric Search for Information Effects from USDA Reports.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 40(1):124-143.
Karali, B. and O.A. Ramirez. (2014). “Macro Determinants of Volatility and Volatility Spillover in Energy Markets.” Energy Economics 46:413-421.
Dorfman, J.H. and B. Karali. (2014). “The Pattern of Price Linkages Among Commodities.” Journal of Futures Markets 34(11):1062-1076.
Deak, Z. and B. Karali. (2014). “Stock Market Reactions to Environmental News in the Food Industry.” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics46(2):209-225.
Lima, D., G. Colson, B. Karali, B. Guerrero, S. Amosson, and M.E. Wetzstein. (2013). “A New Look at the Economic Evaluation of Wind Energy as an Alternative to Electric and Natural Gas Powered Irrigation.” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 45(4):739-751.
Isengildina-Massa, O., B. Karali, and S.H. Irwin. (2013). “When do the USDA Forecasters Make Mistakes?” Applied Economics 45(36):5086-5103.
Karali, B. and G. J. Power. (2013). “Short- and Long-Run Determinants of Commodity Price Volatility.” American Agricultural Journal of Economics 95(3):724-738.
Gonzalez, A.O., B. Karali, and W.E. Wetzstein. (2012). “A Public Policy Aid for Bioenergy Investment: Case Study of Failed Plants.” Energy Policy 51:465-473.
Schnake, K.N., B. Karali, and J.H. Dorfman. (2012). “The Informational Content of Distant-Delivery Futures Contracts.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 37(2):213-228.
Karali, B. (2012). “Do USDA Announcements Affect the Comovements Across Commodity Futures Returns?” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 37(1):77-97.
Mullen, J., U. Bekchanov, B. Karali, D. Kissel, M. Risse, K. Rowles, and S. Collier. (2011). “Assessing the Market for Poultry Litter in Georgia: Are Subsidies Needed to Protect Water Quality?” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 43(4):553-568.
Karali, B. (2011). “What Drives Daily Volatility in Lumber Futures Markets?” Forest Science 57(5):379-392.
Karali, B., G.J. Power, and A. Ishdorj. (2011). “Bayesian State-Space Estimation of Stochastic Volatility for Storable Commodities” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 93(2):434-440.
Dorfman, J.H., and B. Karali. (2010). “Do Farmers Hedge Optimally or by Habit? A Bayesian Partial-Adjustment Model of Farmer Hedging.” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 42(4):791-803.
Karali, B., and W.N. Thurman. (2010). “Components of Grain Futures Price Volatility.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 35(2):167-182.
Karali, B., J.H. Dorfman, and W.N. Thurman. (2010). “Delivery Horizon and Grain Market Volatility.” Journal of Futures Markets 30(9):846-873.
Karali, B., J.H. Dorfman, and W.N. Thurman. (2010). “Do Volatility Determinants Vary Across Futures Contracts? Insights from a Smoothed Bayesian Estimator.” Journal of Futures Markets 30(3):257-277.
Karali, B., and W.N. Thurman.(2009). “Announcement Effects and the Theory of Storage: An Empirical Study of Lumber Futures.” Agricultural Economics 40(4):421-436.
Work in Progress
“How Accurate are USDA South American Corn and Soybean Production Forecasts?” with Olga Isengildina-Massa and Scott Irwin.
“Cognitive Biases in Industry Forecasts of USDA Reports: Implications for Price Reactions and Market Surprise Measures.” with Olga Isengildina-Massa and Scott Irwin.
“Investor Sentiments in Agricultural Commodity Markets.” with Raghav Goyal.
“Do USDA Reports Distort the Stock Market’s Response to Earnings Announcements?” with Anil Banstola.
“The Role of USDA Reports on Extreme Price Movements in Agricultural Substitutes.” with Yao Yang.
“Climate Change or COVID-19? Uncovering the Main Catalyst of Lumber Price Surge.” with Jameson Augustin.
“Environmental Cognitive Dissonance and Subjective Well-Being.” with Shouyu Zhang and Susana Ferreira.
“The Role of ETFs in Price Discovery in Agricultural Commodity Markets.” with Raghav Goyal.