“Exposing And Thence Punishing Worst Polluter Nations Via Weighted Annual Per Capita Greenhouse Gas Pollution Scores: Climate Justice”
By Dr Gideon Polya
(first published as Gideon Polya, “Exposing And Thence Punishing Worst Polluter Nations Via Weighted Annual Per Capita Greenhouse Gas Pollution Scores”, Countercurrents, 19 March, 2016: https://countercurrents.org/polya190316.htm ; see also Gideon Polya, “ Revised Annual Per Capita Greenhouse Gas Pollution For All Countries – What Is Your Country Doing?”, Countercurrents, 6 January 2016: https://countercurrents.org/polya060116.htm ; ).
The latest shocking global temperature data indicate that it is now too late to avoid a catastrophic plus 2 degrees Centigrade temperature rise. Annual per capita greenhouse gas pollution per se is a flawed measure of national culpability for this because it ignores rich countries outsourcing industrial pollution to China, and impoverished countries compelled to pollute to barely survive. A better measure of culpability is weighted annual per capita greenhouse gas pollution taking relative per capita income into account, this revealing that the worst polluters on this basis include the rich Anglosphere countries of the US, UK, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Ireland.
Worsening climate emergency.
Meteorologists Dr Jeff Masters (co-founder of Weather Underground) and Bob Henson have recently commented on a shocking spike in global temperature in February 2016: “On Saturday, NASA dropped a bombshell of a climate report. February 2016 has soared past all rivals as the warmest seasonally adjusted month in more than a century of global recordkeeping. NASA's analysis showed that February ran 1.35°C (2.43°F) above the 1951-1980 global average for the month… if we add 0.2°C as a conservative estimate of the amount of human-produced warming that occurred between the late 1800s and 1951-1980, then the February result winds up at 1.55°C above average. If we use 0.4°C as a higher-end estimate, then February sits at 1.75°C above average… even if we could somehow manage to slash emissions enough to stabilize concentrations of carbon dioxide at their current level, we are still committed to at least 0.5°C of additional atmospheric warming as heat stored in the ocean makes its way into the air. In short, we are now hurtling at a frightening pace toward the globally agreed maximum of 2.0°C warming over pre-industrial levels” [1].
David Spratt (co-author with Phillip Sutton of “Climate Code Red” [2] and author of the Climate Code Red website) has commented: “The 1.35°C figure from NASA is from the norm for February for 1950-1980. The instrumental temperature record goes back to 1880 and early instrumental data and model simulations allow a reasonable estimate for the northern hemisphere for warming since 1750, which is the "pre-industrial" starting point. The record shows 0.3°C warming from ~1900 to the NASA 1950-1980 baseline, and Prof Michael Mann told Climate Code Red that the proxy data shows around another 0.3°C from 1750 to the end of the nineteenth century for the northern hemisphere. "Adding the figures together, we can estimate February 2016 as being around 1.95°C warmer than the 1750 pre-industrial level for the northern hemisphere, and 1.65°C warmer than the beginning of the twentieth century for the planet as a whole", says Mann. "It emphasises the point I have made previously that we have no carbon budget left for the 1.5°C target and the opportunity for holding to 2°C is rapidly fading unless the world starts cutting emissions hard right now” [3]. Dr Stefan Rahmstorf, from Germany's Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research commented: “We are in a kind of climate emergency now” [3].
The current El Nino phenomenon has no doubt contributed to this temperature spike but major contributors are the remorseless increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) to the highest level and at the highest rate (3.05 ppm CO2 per year) observed since records began [4, 5] and the accelerating increase in atmospheric methane (CH4) [6]. Atmospheric CO2 was increasing at about 0.9 ppm CO2 per year in 1959-1970 but the rate has steadily increased and reached 3.05 ppm per year in 2015 [4]. Atmospheric CO2 (which fluctuates seasonally) reached 400 ppm in 2013 and the peak in 2015 was 400 ppm CO2. In February 2016 it reached 404 ppm CO2 [5]. As determined from ice cores, the atmospheric CO2 concentration has been 180-280 parts per million (ppm) for the last 800,000 years (excluding the last century), during which time Homo sapiens finally evolved (glaciation at low CO2 and inter-glacial periods at high CO2) [7]. Atmospheric CH4 increased in 1983-1998 by up to 13 ppb (parts per billion) per year, increased much more slowly in the period 1999-2006 (up to 3 ppb per year, the 2001-2005 average being 0.5 ppb/year), and has increased more rapidly from 2007 onwards, reaching 12.5 ppb per year in 2014 [6]. Atmospheric CH4 increased to 1,843 ppb CH4 in December 2015 as compared to a pre-Industrial Revolution level of 700 ppb CH4 [7].
The Global Warming Potential of CH4 is 21 times that of CO2 on a 100 year time frame but is 105 times greater than that of CO2 on a 20 year time frame and taking atmospheric aerosol impacts into account [8]. The IPCC ( the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has released a succession of 5 key reports, the latest being the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 , 2013) which states that “About 450 ppm CO2-eq [is] likely to limit warming to 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels” [8]. However in 2013 atmospheric greenhouse gas expert Professor Ron Prinn of 85-Nobel-Laureate MIT stated that we had already reached 478 ppm CO2-equivalent [10]. On a 20 year time frame and considering aerosol impacts, the present CH4 contribution to atmospheric CO2-equivalent (CO2-e) is 105 x 1.843 ppm = 194 ppm CO2-e. Accordingly, the current CO2-e (CH4 + CO2) on this 20 year basis = 404 + 194 = 598 ppm CO2-e.
Urgent international action by legal action, Green Tariffs and Boycotts, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) to constrain the worst polluters.
As outlined above, it is very unlikely that we will aoid a catastrophic plus 2 degrees Centigrade temperature rise, a position espoused by many scientists [11-13]. Indeed the national proposals to the Paris Climate Change Conference failed Humanity by collectively locking in a catastrophic temperature rise of about plus 2.7 degrees C [14]. However we are obliged to urgently do everything we can to make the future for our children, grandchildren and future generations “less bad”. One major course of action by the international community is to identify the worst polluting countries and to constrain their behaviour through litigation via the International Court of Justice , prosecution of climate criminals via the International Criminal Court, Green tariffs and Boycotts, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS).
A first step in identifying the worst national polluters (the worst climate criminal nations) is by determining the “annual per capita greenhouse gas pollution” for all countries. I have made such a detailed determination that takes the huge contribution of livestock and land use into account [14], noting that World Bank analysts carefully re-evaluated the contribution of livestock production to world annual greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution and found that the world's annual total rose from 41.76 billion tonnes CO2-equivalent (CO2-e) as estimated by the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) to 63.80 billion tonnes CO2-e, with livestock production contributing over 51% of the higher figure [15].
However the approach of simply listing all countries in order “annual per capita greenhouse gas pollution” is flawed because:
(a) it does not fully take into account disproportionate use of limited global resources by rich countries in a present carbon economy;
(b) it ignores the outsourcing by rich countries of high polluting manufacturing to China and other relatively low-wage countries; and
(c) it is unfair to high GHG polluting but impoverished countries for which fossil fuels, cement, timber, deforestation and livestock are variously key components for basic economic subsistence.
A better way of assessing relative national climate criminality is to also take “annual per capita income “ into account. As described below, I have done this by multiplying the “annual per capita greenhouse gas pollution” for each country [14] by a the ratio of the “annual per capita GDP (nominal)” for each country to the world average (US$10,744) (in nearly all cases UN data, 2014)[16].
Below are listed revised annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution for all countries (tonnes CO2-e per person per year) , the world average being 63.80 billion tonnes CO2-e / 7.137 billion people in 2013 = 8.9 tonnes CO2-e per person per year. These revised estimates take the impact of methanogenic livestock and land use into account, and the data are grouped into (A) countries above the world average, and (B) countries below the world average [14].
(A) countries above the world average: Belize (366.9), Guyana (203.1), Malaysia (126.0), Papua New Guinea (114.7), Qatar (101.8), Zambia (97.5), Antigua & Barbuda (85.6), United Arab Emirates (82.4), Panama (68.0), Botswana (64.9), Liberia (55.0), Indonesia (53.6), New Zealand (53.2), Australia (52.9; 116 if including its huge GHG-generating exports), Nicaragua (51.2), Canada (50.1), Equatorial Guinea (47.5), Venezuela (45.2), Brazil (43.4), Myanmar (41.9), Ireland (41.4), United States (41.0), Cambodia (40.5), Kuwait (37.3), Paraguay (37.2), Central African Republic (35.7); Peru (34.8), Mongolia (32.2), Singapore (31.2), Bahrain (30.5), Trinidad & Tobago (29.8), Cameroon (29.5), Congo, Democratic Republic (formerly Zaire) (29.3), Côte d'Ivoire (29.1), Denmark (27.8), Brunei (27.4), Bolivia (27.3), Guatemala (26.9), Belgium (26.3), Ecuador (26.2), Estonia (25.4), Laos (25.3), Suriname (25.1), Netherlands (24.9), Libya (24.9), Nepal (24.6), Benin (24.5), Angola (23.8), Madagascar (23.7), Argentina (23.7), Uruguay (23.7)*, Luxembourg (23.6), Turkmenistan (23.5), Czech Republic (23.5), Zimbabwe (23.3), Gabon (23.1), Greece (21.9), United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (21.5), Cyprus (21.4), Congo, Republic (21.0), Spain (20.9), Finland (20.6), Israel (20.2), Norway (20.1), Colombia (19.8), Namibia (19.8), Mauritania (19.7), South Africa (19.4), Ukraine (19.1), Germany (18.6); France (17.7), Italy (17.6), Uzbekistan (17.5), Costa Rica (17.1), Sudan (16.8), Saudi Arabia (16.6), Slovenia (16.5), Azerbaijan (16.4), Russia (16.2), Sierra Leone (16.2), Slovakia (15.9), Honduras (15.8), Hungary (15.5), Kazakhstan (15.4), Portugal (15.0), Sweden (15.0), Iran (14.5), Iceland (14.2), Mexico (13.9), Oman (13.8), Malta (13.3), Austria (13.0), Poland (12.9), Jamaica (12.8), Palau (12.8), South Korea (12.7), Guinea (12.5), North Korea (12.1), Bahamas (12.1), Nigeria (11.7), Nauru (11.7), Malawi (11.7), Mali (11.6), Chad (11.6), Taiwan (11.6), Latvia (11.4), Vanuatu (11.1), Switzerland (11.0), Romania (10.9), Togo (10.9), Japan (10.7), Serbia & Montenegro (10.4), Seychelles (10.2), Bulgaria (10.1), Lebanon (9.8), Syria (9.4), Tanzania (9.3), Turkey (9.2), Barbados (9.1), Jordan (9.1), Occupied State of Palestine (9.1)*, Philippines (9.0), Guinea-Bissau (9.0);
(B) countries below the world average: Ghana (8.9), Thailand (8.7), Chile (8.7), Fiji (8.7), Belarus (8.6), Sri Lanka (8.5), Macedonia (8.5), Tonga (7.4), Croatia (7.4), China (7.4), Burkina Faso (7.3), Bosnia & Herzegovina (7.2), Kenya (7.1), Dominican Republic (7.1), Senegal (7.0), Tunisia (7.0), Algeria (6.6), Grenada (6.4), Samoa (6.2), Rwanda (6.1), El Salvador (6.0), Lithuania (5.9), Mozambique (5.8), Lesotho (5.7), Burundi (5.5), Iraq (5.5), Eritrea (5.3), St Kitts & Nevis (5.1), Uganda (5.1), Haiti (5.0), Mauritius (5.0), Albania (4.3), Dominica (4.2), Bhutan (4.1), Niger (4.1), Ethiopia (4.1), Moldova (4.0), Georgia (4.0), Yemen (3.7), Tajikistan (3.7), Afghanistan (3.6), Swaziland (3.6), Cuba (3.5), Cape Verde (3.5), Kyrgyzstan (3.4), The Gambia (3.0), St Lucia (2.9), Bangladesh (2.7), Egypt (2.6), Niue (2.6), Pakistan (2.5), Morocco (2.5), Djibouti (2.4), St Vincent & Grenadines (2.4), Armenia (2.3), Maldives (2.1), India (2.1), Cook Islands (2.1), Vietnam (1.9), São Tomé and Príncipe (1.9), Comoros (1.6), Solomon Islands (1.4), Kiribati (1.2), Tuvalu (1.2)* (* estimated from that of a similar, contiguous country) [1].
Below are listed values for each country of “weighted annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution” taking per capita GDP (nominal) into account. The “annual per capita GHG pollution” for each country (see above) has been multiplied by the ratio of the “annual per capita GDP (nominal)” for each country to the world average (US$10,744). Thus, for example, relatively poor Belize has a world-leading “annual per capita GHG pollution” of 366.9 tonnes CO2-e per person per year” which when multiplied by the ratio of the “annual per capita GDP (nominal)” for Belize (US$4,831) to that of the world (US$10,744) (i.e. US$4,831/US$10,744 = 0.450) yields a “weighted annual per capita GHG pollution” of 165.1 tonnes per person per year, with Belize now ranking 10th in the world on this basis.
(A) countries above the world average in annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution: Belize (366.9 x 0.450 = 165.1), Guyana (203.1 x 0.376 = 76.4), Malaysia (126.0 x 1.02 = 128.5), Papua New Guinea (114.7 x 0.207 = 23.7), Qatar (101.8 x 9.08 = 924.3), Zambia (97.5 x 0.160 = 15.6), Antigua & Barbuda (85.6 x 1.28 = 109.6), United Arab Emirates (82.4 x 4.09 = 337.0), Panama (68.0 x 1.18 = 80.2), Botswana (64.9 x 0.663 = 43.0), Liberia (55.0 x 0.045 = 2.5), Indonesia (53.6 x 0.325 = 17.4), New Zealand (53.2 x 4.11 = 218.7), Australia (52.9 x 5.80 = 306.8; if including its huge GHG-generating exports, 116 x 5.80 = 672.8), Nicaragua (51.2 x 0.183 = 9.4), Canada (50.1 x 4.67 = 234.0), Equatorial Guinea (47.5 x 1.90 = 90.3), Venezuela (45.2 x 1.55 = 70.1), Brazil (43.4 x 1.06 = 46.0), Myanmar (41.9 x 0.116 = 4.9), Ireland (41.4 x 4.99 = 206.6), United States (41.0 x 5.05 = 207.1), Cambodia (40.5 x 0.102 = 4.1), Kuwait (37.3 x 4.06 = 151.4), Paraguay (37.2 x 0.440 = 16.4), Central African Republic (35.7 x 0.036 = 1.3); Peru (34.8 x 0.606 = 21.1), Mongolia (32.2 x 0.386 = 12.4), Singapore (31.2 x 5.20 = 162.2), Bahrain (30.5 x 2.31 = 70.5), Trinidad & Tobago (29.8 x 1.93 = 57.5), Cameroon (29.5 x 0.131 = 3.9), Congo, Democratic Republic (formerly Zaire) (29.3 x 0.045 = 1.3), Côte d'Ivoire (29.1 x 0.144 = 4.2), Denmark (27.8 x 5.70 = 158.5), Brunei (27.4 x 3.81 = 104.4), Bolivia (27.3 x 0.291 = 7.9), Guatemala (26.9 x 0.342 = 9.2), Belgium (26.3 x 4.41 = 116.0), Ecuador (26.2 x 0.591 = 15.5), Estonia (25.4 x 1.87 = 47.5), Laos (25.3 x 0.163 = 4.1), Suriname (25.1 x 0.901 = 22.6), Netherlands (24.9 x 4.85 = 120.8), Libya (24.9 x 0.614 = 15.3), Nepal (24.6 x 0.064 = 1.6), Benin (24.5 x 0.084 = 2.1), Angola (23.8 x 0.563 = 13.4), Madagascar (23.7 x 0.042 = 1.0), Argentina (23.7 x 1.18 = 28.0), Uruguay (23.7 x 1.56 = 37.0)*, Luxembourg (23.6 x 10.85 = 256.1), Turkmenistan (23.5 x 0.841 = 19.8), Czech Republic (23.5 x 1.81 = 42.5), Zimbabwe (23.3 x 0.090 = 2.1), Gabon (23.1 x 0.96 = 22.2), Greece (21.9 x 1.99 = 43.6), United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (21.5 x 4.32 = 92.9), Cyprus (21.4 x 2.43 = 52.0), Congo, Republic (21.0 x 0.291 = 6.1), Spain (20.9 x 2.78 = 58.1), Finland (20.6 x 4.62 = 95.2), Israel (20.2 x 3.56 = 71.9), Norway (20.1 x 9.05 = 181.9), Colombia (19.8 x 0.736 = 14.6), Namibia (19.8 x 0.520 = 10.3), Mauritania (19.7 x 0.119 = 2.3), South Africa (19.4 x 0.579 = 11.2), Ukraine (19.1 x 0.273 = 5.2), Germany (18.6 x 4.46 = 83.0); France (17.7 x 3.98 = 70.4), Italy (17.6 x 3.33 = 58.6), Uzbekistan (17.5 x 0.199 = 3.5), Costa Rica (17.1 x 0.97 = 16.6), Sudan (16.8 x 0.194 = 3.3), Saudi Arabia (16.6 x 2.27 = 37.7), Slovenia (16.5 x 2.23 = 36.8), Azerbaijan (16.4 x 0.727 = 11.9), Russia (16.2 x 1.21 = 19.6), Sierra Leone (16.2 x 0.072 = 1.2), Slovakia (15.9 x 1.72 = 27.3), Honduras (15.8 x 0.228 = 3.6), Hungary (15.5 x 1.30 = 20.2), Kazakhstan (15.4 x 1.16 = 17.9), Portugal (15.0 x 2.06 = 30.9), Sweden (15.0 x 5.48 = 82.2), Iran (14.5 x 0.507 = 7.4), Iceland (14.2 x 4.84 = 68.7), Mexico (13.9 x 0.96 = 13.3), Oman (13.8 x 1.80 = 24.8), Malta (13.3 x 2.35 = 31.3), Austria (13.0 x 4.77 = 62.0), Poland (12.9 x 1.31 = 16.9), Jamaica (12.8 x 0.466 = 6.0), Palau (12.8 x 1.03 = 13.2), South Korea (12.7 x 2.62 = 33.3), Guinea (12.5 x 0.050 = 0.63), North Korea (12.1 x 0.065 = 0.79), Bahamas (12.1 x 2.07 = 25.0), Nigeria (11.7 x 0.298 = 3.5), Nauru (11.7 x 1.66 = 19.4), Malawi (11.7 x 0.032 = 0.37), Mali (11.6 x 0.065 = 0.75), Chad (11.6 x 0.088 = 1.0), Taiwan (11.6 x 2.06 = 23.9), Latvia (11.4 x 1.46 = 16.6), Vanuatu (11.1 x 0.292 = 3.2), Switzerland (11.0 x 7.95 = 87.5), Romania (10.9 x 0.94 = 10.2), Togo (10.9 x 0.060 = 0.65), Japan (10.7 x 3.38 = 36.2), Serbia & Montenegro (10.4 x 0.569 = 5.9), Seychelles (10.2 x 1.47 = 15.0), Bulgaria (10.1 x 0.733 = 7.4), Lebanon (9.8 x 0.823 = 8.1), Syria (9.4 x 0.169 = 1.6), Tanzania (9.3 x 0.089 = 0.83), Turkey (9.2 x 0.96 = 8.8), Barbados (9.1 x 1.43 = 13.0), Jordan (9.1 x 0.450 = 4.1 ), Occupied State of Palestine (9.1 x 0.262 = 2.4)*, Philippines (9.0 x 0.267 = 2.4), Guinea-Bissau (9.0 x 0.063 = 0.57), Sweden (15.0 x 5.48 = 82.2);
(B) countries below the world average in annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution: Ghana (8.9 x 0.129 = 1.1), Thailand (8.7 x 0.556 = 4.8), Chile (8.7 x 1.35 = 11.7), Fiji (8.7 x 0.476 = 4.1), Belarus (8.6 x 0.746 = 6.4), Sri Lanka (8.5 x 0.338 = 2.9), Macedonia (8.5 x 0.508 = 4.3), Tonga (7.4 x 0.383 = 2.8), Croatia (7.4 x 1.25 = 9.3), China (7.4 x 0.709 = 5.2), Burkina Faso (7.3 x 0.067 = 0.49), Bosnia & Herzegovina (7.2 x 0.451 = 3.2), Kenya (7.1 x 0.126 = 0.89), Dominican Republic (7.1 x 0.572 = 4.1), Senegal (7.0 x 0.099 = 0.69), Tunisia (7.0 x 0.397 = 2.8), Algeria (6.6 x 0.510 = 3.4), Grenada (6.4 x 0.774 = 5.0), Samoa (6.2 x 0.400 = 2.5), Rwanda (6.1 x 0.065 = 0.40), El Salvador (6.0 x 0.383 = 2.3), Lithuania (5.9 x 1.54 = 9.1), Mozambique (5.8 x 0.058 = 0.34), Lesotho (5.7 x 0.092 = 0.52), Burundi (5.5 x 0.026 = 0.14), Iraq (5.5 x 0.595 = 3.3), Eritrea (5.3 x 0.070 = 0.37), St Kitts & Nevis (5.1 x 1.44 = 7.3), Uganda (5.1 x 0.068 = 0.35), Haiti (5.0 x 0.076 = 0.38), Mauritius (5.0 x 0.926 = 4.6), Albania (4.3 x 0.432 = 1.9), Dominica (4.2 x 0.685 = 2.9), Bhutan (4.1 x 0.239 = 0.98), Niger (4.1 x 0.040 = 0.16), Ethiopia (4.1 x 0.051 = 0.21), Moldova (4.0 x 0.182 = 0.73), Georgia (4.0 x 0.381 = 1.5), Yemen (3.7 x 0.132 = 0.49), Tajikistan (3.7 x 0.104 = 0.38), Afghanistan (3.6 x 0.062 = 0.22), Swaziland (3.6 x 0.329 = 1.2), Cuba (3.5 x 0.677 = 2.4), Cape Verde (3.5 x 0.336 = 1.2), Kyrgyzstan (3.4 x 0.118 = 0.40), The Gambia (3.0 x 0.041 = 0.12), St Lucia (2.9 x 0.712 = 2.1), Bangladesh (2.7 x 0.101 = 0.27), Egypt (2.6 x 0.293 = 0.76), Niue (2.6 x 0.540 = 1.4), Pakistan (2.5 x 0.126 = 0.32), Morocco (2.5 x 0.302 = 0.76), Djibouti (2.4 x 0.169 = 0.41), St Vincent & Grenadines (2.4 x 0.621 = 1.5), Armenia (2.3 x 0.337 = 0.78), Maldives (2.1 x 0.790 = 1.7), India (2.1 x 0.148 = 0.31), Cook Islands (2.1 x 1.40 = 2.9), Vietnam (1.9 x 0.188 = 0.36), São Tomé and Príncipe (1.9 x 0.169 = 0.32), Comoros (1.6 x 0.078 = 0.12), Solomon Islands (1.4 x 0.179 = 0.25), Kiribati (1.2 x 0.152 = 0.18), Tuvalu (1.2 x 0.353 = 0.42)* (* estimated from that of a similar, contiguous country).
To readily identify the worst climate criminal nations we can now list countries in descending order of “weighted annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution” score:
(a) Above 100: Qatar (101.8 x 9.08 = 924.3), United Arab Emirates (82.4 x 4.09 = 337.0), Australia (52.9 x 5.80 = 306.8; if including its huge GHG-generating exports, 116 x 5.80 = 672.8), Luxembourg (23.6 x 10.85 = 256.1), Canada (50.1 x 4.67 = 234.0), New Zealand (53.2 x 4.11 = 218.7), United States (41.0 x 5.05 = 207.1), Ireland (41.4 x 4.99 = 206.6), Norway (20.1 x 9.05 = 181.9), Belize (366.9 x 0.450 = 165.1), Singapore (31.2 x 5.20 = 162.2), Denmark (27.8 x 5.70 = 158.5), Kuwait (37.3 x 4.06 = 151.4), Malaysia (126.0 x 1.02 = 128.5), Netherlands (24.9 x 4.85 = 120.8), Belgium (26.3 x 4.41 = 116.0), Antigua & Barbuda (85.6 x 1.28 = 109.6), Brunei (27.4 x 3.81 = 104.4).
(b) 10-100: Finland (20.6 x 4.62 = 95.2), United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (21.5 x 4.32 = 92.9), Equatorial Guinea (47.5 x 1.90 = 90.3), Switzerland (11.0 x 7.95 = 87.5), Germany (18.6 x 4.46 = 83.0); Sweden (15.0 x 5.48 = 82.2), Panama (68.0 x 1.18 = 80.2), Guyana (203.1 x 0.376 = 76.4), Israel (20.2 x 3.56 = 71.9), Bahrain (30.5 x 2.31 = 70.5), France (17.7 x 3.98 = 70.4), Venezuela (45.2 x 1.55 = 70.1), Iceland (14.2 x 4.84 = 68.7), Austria (13.0 x 4.77 = 62.0), Spain (20.9 x 2.78 = 58.1), Trinidad & Tobago (29.8 x 1.93 = 57.5), Italy (17.6 x 3.33 = 58.6), Cyprus (21.4 x 2.43 = 52.0), Estonia (25.4 x 1.87 = 47.5), Brazil (43.4 x 1.06 = 46.0), Greece (21.9 x 1.99 = 43.6), Botswana (64.9 x 0.663 = 43.0), Czech Republic (23.5 x 1.81 = 42.5), Saudi Arabia (16.6 x 2.27 = 37.7), Uruguay (23.7 x 1.56 = 37.0)*, Slovenia (16.5 x 2.23 = 36.8), Japan (10.7 x 3.38 = 36.2), South Korea (12.7 x 2.62 = 33.3), Malta (13.3 x 2.35 = 31.3), Portugal (15.0 x 2.06 = 30.9), Argentina (23.7 x 1.18 = 28.0), Slovakia (15.9 x 1.72 = 27.3), Bahamas (12.1 x 2.07 = 25.0), Oman (13.8 x 1.80 = 24.8), Taiwan (11.6 x 2.06 = 23.9), Papua New Guinea (114.7 x 0.207 = 23.7), Suriname (25.1 x 0.901 = 22.6), Gabon (23.1 x 0.96 = 22.2), Peru (34.8 x 0.606 = 21.1), Hungary (15.5 x 1.30 = 20.2), Turkmenistan (23.5 x 0.841 = 19.8), Russia (16.2 x 1.21 = 19.6), Nauru (11.7 x 1.66 = 19.4), Kazakhstan (15.4 x 1.16 = 17.9), Indonesia (53.6 x 0.325 = 17.4), Poland (12.9 x 1.31 = 16.9), Costa Rica (17.1 x 0.97 = 16.6), Latvia (11.4 x 1.46 = 16.6), Paraguay (37.2 x 0.440 = 16.4), Zambia (97.5 x 0.160 = 15.6), Ecuador (26.2 x 0.591 = 15.5), Libya (24.9 x 0.614 = 15.3), Seychelles (10.2 x 1.47 = 15.0), Colombia (19.8 x 0.736 = 14.6), Angola (23.8 x 0.563 = 13.4), Mexico (13.9 x 0.96 = 13.3), Palau (12.8 x 1.03 = 13.2), Barbados (9.1 x 1.43 = 13.0), Mongolia (32.2 x 0.386 = 12.4), Azerbaijan (16.4 x 0.727 = 11.9), Chile (8.7 x 1.35 = 11.7), South Africa (19.4 x 0.579 = 11.2), Namibia (19.8 x 0.520 = 10.3), Romania (10.9 x 0.94 = 10.2).
(c) 1-10: Nicaragua (51.2 x 0.183 = 9.4), Croatia (7.4 x 1.25 = 9.3), Guatemala (26.9 x 0.342 = 9.2), Lithuania (5.9 x 1.54 = 9.1), Turkey (9.2 x 0.96 = 8.8), Lebanon (9.8 x 0.823 = 8.1), Bolivia (27.3 x 0.291 = 7.9), Iran (14.5 x 0.507 = 7.4), Bulgaria (10.1 x 0.733 = 7.4), St Kitts & Nevis (5.1 x 1.44 = 7.3), Belarus (8.6 x 0.746 = 6.4), Congo, Republic (21.0 x 0.291 = 6.1), Jamaica (12.8 x 0.466 = 6.0), Serbia & Montenegro (10.4 x 0.569 = 5.9), China (7.4 x 0.709 = 5.2), Ukraine (19.1 x 0.273 = 5.2), Grenada (6.4 x 0.774 = 5.0), Myanmar (41.9 x 0.116 = 4.9), Thailand (8.7 x 0.556 = 4.8), Mauritius (5.0 x 0.926 = 4.6), Macedonia (8.5 x 0.508 = 4.3), Côte d'Ivoire (29.1 x 0.144 = 4.2), Dominican Republic (7.1 x 0.572 = 4.1), Cambodia (40.5 x 0.102 = 4.1), Fiji (8.7 x 0.476 = 4.1), Laos (25.3 x 0.163 = 4.1), Jordan (9.1 x 0.450 = 4.1 ), Cameroon (29.5 x 0.131 = 3.9), Honduras (15.8 x 0.228 = 3.6), Uzbekistan (17.5 x 0.199 = 3.5), Nigeria (11.7 x 0.298 = 3.5), Algeria (6.6 x 0.510 = 3.4), Iraq (5.5 x 0.595 = 3.3), Sudan (16.8 x 0.194 = 3.3), Bosnia & Herzegovina (7.2 x 0.451 = 3.2), Vanuatu (11.1 x 0.292 = 3.2), Sri Lanka (8.5 x 0.338 = 2.9), Cook Islands (2.1 x 1.40 = 2.9), Dominica (4.2 x 0.685 = 2.9), Tunisia (7.0 x 0.397 = 2.8), Tonga (7.4 x 0.383 = 2.8), Liberia (55.0 x 0.045 = 2.5), Samoa (6.2 x 0.400 = 2.5), Cuba (3.5 x 0.677 = 2.4), Occupied State of Palestine (9.1 x 0.262 = 2.4)*, Philippines (9.0 x 0.267 = 2.4), El Salvador (6.0 x 0.383 = 2.3), Mauritania (19.7 x 0.119 = 2.3), Benin (24.5 x 0.084 = 2.1), St Lucia (2.9 x 0.712 = 2.1), Zimbabwe (23.3 x 0.090 = 2.1), Albania (4.3 x 0.432 = 1.9), Maldives (2.1 x 0.790 = 1.7), Nepal (24.6 x 0.064 = 1.6), Syria (9.4 x 0.169 = 1.6), St Vincent & Grenadines (2.4 x 0.621 = 1.5), Georgia (4.0 x 0.381 = 1.5), Niue (2.6 x 0.540 = 1.4), Congo, Democratic Republic (formerly Zaire) (29.3 x 0.045 = 1.3), Central African Republic (35.7 x 0.036 = 1.3), Swaziland (3.6 x 0.329 = 1.2), Sierra Leone (16.2 x 0.072 = 1.2), Cape Verde (3.5 x 0.336 = 1.2), Ghana (8.9 x 0.129 = 1.1), Madagascar (23.7 x 0.042 = 1.0), Chad (11.6 x 0.088 = 1.0).
(d) Less than 1: Bhutan (4.1 x 0.239 = 0.98), Kenya (7.1 x 0.126 = 0.89), Tanzania (9.3 x 0.089 = 0.83), North Korea (12.1 x 0.065 = 0.79), Armenia (2.3 x 0.337 = 0.78), Morocco (2.5 x 0.302 = 0.76), Egypt (2.6 x 0.293 = 0.76), Mali (11.6 x 0.065 = 0.75), Moldova (4.0 x 0.182 = 0.73), Senegal (7.0 x 0.099 = 0.69), Togo (10.9 x 0.060 = 0.65), Guinea (12.5 x 0.050 = 0.63), Guinea-Bissau (9.0 x 0.063 = 0.57), Lesotho (5.7 x 0.092 = 0.52), Burkina Faso (7.3 x 0.067 = 0.49), Yemen (3.7 x 0.132 = 0.49), Tuvalu (1.2 x 0.353 = 0.42)* Djibouti (2.4 x 0.169 = 0.41), Kyrgyzstan (3.4 x 0.118 = 0.40), Rwanda (6.1 x 0.065 = 0.40), Haiti (5.0 x 0.076 = 0.38), Tajikistan (3.7 x 0.104 = 0.38), Malawi (11.7 x 0.032 = 0.37), Eritrea (5.3 x 0.070 = 0.37), Vietnam (1.9 x 0.188 = 0.36), Uganda (5.1 x 0.068 = 0.35), Mozambique (5.8 x 0.058 = 0.34), Pakistan (2.5 x 0.126 = 0.32), São Tomé and Príncipe (1.9 x 0.169 = 0.32), India (2.1 x 0.148 = 0.31), Bangladesh (2.7 x 0.101 = 0.27), Solomon Islands (1.4 x 0.179 = 0.25), Afghanistan (3.6 x 0.062 = 0.22), Ethiopia (4.1 x 0.051 = 0.21), Kiribati (1.2 x 0.152 = 0.18), Niger (4.1 x 0.040 = 0.16), Burundi (5.5 x 0.026 = 0.14), The Gambia (3.0 x 0.041 = 0.12), Comoros (1.6 x 0.078 = 0.12). (* Estimated from data for a similar, contiguous country. Data were not available for Timor L'este and the Federated States of Micronesia which are likely to be in the less than 1 group).
Conclusions
The worst polluters on the basis of “weighted annual capita GHG pollution” scores greater than 100 include some major rich fossil fuel producers and users (Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Australia, Canada, US, Norway, Kuwait and Brunei) and countries with major deforestation (Malaysia and Belize). Denmark, Netherlands, Singapore, Belgium and Ireland score high due to high per capita incomes and relatively high GHG pollution including land use. The surprisingly high “score” for luxury tourist destination Antigua & Barbados, similar to that of the UK, is possibly too high and derives in this analysis from a high 2000 value of “tonnes of CO2-e with land use change” in the primary data used in estimating “revised annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution” [14, 17] . It is surprising that I have only been able to find this one source of information for all countries on GHG pollution with land use considered [17] – is the world serious about tackling climate change or not? New Zealand scores high as a high per capita income country with a large methanogenic livestock population. A notable group of high polluters are Anglosphere countries including the UK itself (21.5 x 4.32 = 92.9), the formerly English-ruled Ireland (41.4 x 4.99 = 206.6), and former European-settled British colonies namely Australia (52.9 x 5.80 = 306.8; if including its huge GHG-generating exports, 116 x 5.80 = 672.8), Canada (50.1 x 4.67 = 234.0), New Zealand (53.2 x 4.11 = 218.7), United States (41.0 x 5.05 = 207.1), and UK- and US-backed Israel (20.2 x 3.56 = 71.9) – all very high scores in stark contrast to that of Occupied State of Palestine (9.1 x 0.262 = 2.4).
Countries with “weighted annual capita GHG pollution” scores in the range of 10-100 include most other Western European countries, most Eastern European countries and some other First World countries (notably Japan and South Korea) plus many other countries from around the world variously heavily involved in high polluting industries such as fossil fuels (Angola, Bahrain, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Turkmenistan, Russia, Kazakhstan, Indonesia, Libya, Peru, Azerbaijan, South Africa, and Trinidad & Tobago, ), deforestation (Panama, Guyana, Brazil, Indonesia, Peru, Papua New Guinea , Suriname, Gabon, Ecuador, and Colombia), livestock (e.g. Botswana, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay) and luxury tourism (e.g. Bahamas, Seychelles, and Barbados). Thus, for example, Botswana (64.9 x 0.663 = 43.0) is a poor, developing country with a big cattle industry.
Countries with “weighted annual capita GHG pollution” scores in the range of 1-10 include the poorest European countries, many Island states and many very poor countries with economies variously heavily involving fossil fuels (Bolivia, Iran, Nigeria, Algeria, Iraq) or significant ongoing deforestation (Nicaragua, Guatemala, Congo, Republic, Myanmar, Thailand, Côte d'Ivoire, Cambodia, Fiji, Laos, Cameroon, Honduras, Nigeria, Vanuatu, Philippines, El Salvador, Benin, Congo, Democratic Republic (formerly Zaire), Central African Republic, Sierra Leone, Ghana, and Madagascar). China (7.4 x 0.709 = 5.2) is notable in this group with a “weighted annual capita GHG pollution” score that is less than the world average value of 8.9 x 1.0 = 8.9.
At the “good” far end of the “weighted annual capita GHG pollution” spectrum are countries with scores of less than 1, this set including many African countries, some global warming-threatened Island Nations (Tuvalu, Haiti, São Tomé and Príncipe, Solomon Islands, Kiribati, and Comoros), some countries devastated by US invasion or US-backed wars (e.g. North Korea, Yemen, Haiti, Eritrea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Ethiopia) and some countries containing huge river deltas that are accordingly acutely threatened by rising sea levels due to global warming, namely Egypt, Senegal, Vietnam, Mozambique, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and the Gambia. Of these acutely threatened, mega-delta countries, Egypt, Vietnam, Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh are extremely populous nations. A sea level rise of 1 metre is predicted by 2100 [18]. David Spratt (co-author of “Climate Code Red”) writes: “In Bangladesh, a 1-metre sea level rise would inundate 15-17% of the land and threaten more than a million hectares of agricultural land. The Mekong River Commission warns that a 1-metre sea level would wipe out nearly 40% of the Mekong Delta. A 1-metre rise would flood one-fourth of the Nile Delta, forcing more than 10% of Egypt's population from their homes. Nearly half of Egypt's crops, including wheat, bananas and rice, are grown in the delta” [19]. It is an utterly unacceptable injustice that Island states and mega-delta countries with the lowest “weighted annual capita GHG pollution” scores are so acutely threatened by greedy, heartless and irresponsible countries with the highest scores.
We are badly running out of time to deal with man-made climate change, and a plus 2C temperature rise appears locked in and inevitable. However atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is remorselessly increasing to record levels at a record rate. The atmospheric level of methane (CH4) (which has a global warming potential 105 times that of CO2 on a 20 year time frame and with aerosol impacts considered), is rising at a much faster rate now (in 2014 at 12.5 parts per billion per year i.e. 12.5 ppb/year) than the average rate of increase in the first decade of the 21st century (0.5 ppb/year). The time for tolerance of climate criminal casuistry and double talk is long gone. The world must adopt a zero tolerance approach, publicly expose the worst polluting countries, and urgently constrain their behaviour through litigation via the International Court of Justice, prosecution of climate criminals via the International Criminal Court, Green tariffs and Boycotts, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS). Sensible, humane, science-informed people can (a) inform everyone they can about the global warming culprits identified here, and (b) urge and apply Boycotts, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) against all climate criminal people, politicians, parties, companies, corporations and countries disproportionately involved in the greenhouse gas pollution that so acutely threatens Humanity and the Biosphere.
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