Aslihan Arslan's Home Page

Aslihan Arslan, PhD

About me: I am a Senior Economist at the Rsearch and Impact Assessment division of the International Fund for Agricultural Development. I lead multiple research projects related to agricultural productivity, climate resilience, rural out migration and climate change mitigation potential of agricultural practices promoted by IFAD and others. I also lead a number of impact assessments of IFAD projects related to these themes. I was one of the co-leads of the 2019 RDR on Investing in Rural Youth. Prior to joining IFAD in 2017, I worked as a Natural Resource Economist at the Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA) of FAO, where I worked primarily on Climate Smart Agriculture. Before FAO, I worked as a post-doctoral research economist at the Poverty Reduction, Equity and Development group of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in Kiel, Germany. Mr research there covered various topics related to agricultural and rural development, migration, inequality, and poverty. I received my PhD at the Agricultural and Resource Economics, UC Davis in December 2007. My dissertation is titled "Farmers' Subjective Valuation of Subsistence Crops: The Case of Traditional Maize in Mexico" (full copy below).

Here is my full CV.

Selected Projects

Climate Smart Agriculture: Capturing the Synergies between Mitigation, Adaptation and Food Security

I am currently working (as part of the Economic and Policy Innovations for Climate Smart Agriculture (EPIC) team at the Agricultural Development Division (ESA) of FAO) on a a three year project funded by the European Commission designed to support national efforts on climate smart agriculture (CSA) in order to capture the synergies between mitigation, adaptation and food security in Malawi, Zambia and Vietnam. This project will narrow knowledge and data gaps through use of existing data and the targeted collection, analysis, and modelling of new information and data in order to inform practices, policies, and strategies with the best possible evidence that is relevant to specific country contexts. It will provide a holistic approach to multiple objectives (food security, mitigation and adaptation) to better align policies and achieve greater cooperation and coordination across national enabling means and action. One of the main goals of the project is to support the development of national climate-smart strategies that can guide nationally-led action and provide a basis for mobilizing international support -- for example by generating knowledge and experience that could be fed back into the UNFCCC process, especially for the design of enabling mechanisms for CSA that are currently under development.

On-farm diversification and productivity in rural Mexico: an adaptation strategy to climate change?

with Justin Kagin, UC Davis

Mexico is the center of origin and diversity of maize. Understanding how farmers' incentives for on-farm diversity are changing with changes in the global food markets and climate is key to efficient policy design for conservation of agricultural biodiversity both on- and off-farm. The role of on-farm diversification in helping farmers to manage climate risk has long been recognized in the literature (Fafchamps 1992; Smale et al. 1998). As climate change threatens to decrease the productivity and increase the variability of production, smallholders face new challenges to adapt their agricultural practices to climate change. This has also implications for food security, especially for smallholders who also depend on their production for food. This project uses novel nationally representative household panel data and matched historical climate data from rural Mexico to assess the role of on-farm diversification in production and the variability thereof, paying special attention to traditional maize production systems. We also investigate whether and how the role of diversification in production depends on different levels of exposure to climate risk. Rich panel data allow us to control for a range of socio-economic and agro-ecological variables, as well as for unobserved heterogeneity at the household level. The results have implications for the design of policies that support smallholder adaptation to climate change and food security.

An extension of the first part of the project will analyze how migration out of rural Mexican communities changes the cropping patterns in general and affects on-farm conservation of traditional maize varieties.

Note: This project is a natural extension of my PhD research both conceptually and empirically. You can find the full version of my dissertation titled "Farmers' Subjective Valuation of Subsistence

Crops: The Case of Traditional Maize in Mexico" is here: Thesis_main.pdf

Migration, remittances and inequality:

I have worked on a DFG funded reserach project analyzing the dynamics between migration, remittances and inequality in rural Mexico. Empirical literature on the effects of migration on inequality delivered conflicting results. This project analyzed these dynamic linkages using novel panel data (ENHRUM) with an extensive coverage of migration histories from farm households in rural Mexico. It was a collaborative project with J. Edward Taylor and extended his previous research on the same topic based on cross-sectional data.

In one of the two recent papers we find that migrant networks grew significantly, inducing remittances to switch from being an unequalising income source to being equalising between 2002 and 2007. This provides supporting evidence for the migration diffusion hypothesis both at the regional and national levels. Our fixed effects analysis at the village level, however, shows no clear relationship between village migrant networks and inequality. We find that the growth of remittances in these villages included significant re-ranking and pro-poor components making it hard to detect changes in inequality at the village level.

The second recent paper in this project investigates the implications of whole household migration (i.e. attrition) for the studies of income distribution and poverty using panel data. I am also working with a PhD Student related to this project (Marcus Boehme) on a paper that will analyze the impacts of remittances on the investment behavior of both recipient and non-recipient households in rural Mexico with special emphasis on selection.

A novel "value capture" strategy for fine coffee: Trademarks:

The Trademarking and Licensing Initiative of the Ethiopian Government is a brand management strategy that aims to improve the recognition of Ethiopian fine coffees and increase farmers' incomes from Sidamo, Harar and Yirgacheffe coffees. This research analyzes the effects of the Trademarking and Licensing Initiative on the export prices of Sidamo, Harar and Yirgacheffe coffees as compared to coffees from other origins. During the early stages of the Initiative, Ethiopian government was involved in a court case with Starbucks at the USPTO regarding the trademarking of "Sidamo." Ethiopian government engaged in a public relations campaign to raise awareness for the Initiative and urge Starbucks to sign the licensing agreement, which was widely publicized in the international media especially after Oxfam organized a public campaign. This paper evaluates the effect of these "interventions" on the export prices of trademarked Ethiopian coffees. We find that the prices of the trademarked coffees increased by about 10% relative to the non-trademarked coffees following these interventions. The magnitude of this change is comparable with the farm gate prices reported in the literature. Here is a poster and the working paper of this published work.

Selected Publications/Working Papers

Arslan, A., Tschirley, D. and Egger E. 2019. What drives rural youth welfare? The role of spatial, economic, and household factors. IFAD Research Series Nr. 42 and Background paper for the IFAD-Rural Development Report 2019, Rome, Italy.

Dolislager, M., Reardon, T., Arslan, A., Fox, L., Liverpool-Tasie, S., Sauer, C. and Tschirley, D. 2019. Youth agrifood system employment in developing countries: a gender-differentiated spatial approach. IFAD Research Series Nr. 43 and Background paper for the IFAD-Rural Development Report 2019, Rome, Italy.

Higgins, D. and Arslan, A. 2019. Can climate resilient infrastructure stimulate inclusive rural transformation? Evidence from Southwest Bangladesh. Mimeo.

Bravo-Ureta, B., Higgins, D., and Arslan, A. 2018. Irrigation infrastructure and farm productivity in the Philippines: A Stochastic Meta-Frontier analysis. Under revision in World Development.

Higgins, D., Arslan, A. and Winters, P. 2018. What role can small-scale irrigation play in promoting inclusive rural transformation? Evidence from the Irrigated Rice Production Enhancement Project in the Philippines. Revised and resubmitted to the Journal of Development Studies.

Arslan, A., Cavatassi, R., Alfani, F., McCarthy, N., Lipper, L., and Kokwe, M. 2018. Diversification Under Climate Variability as Part of a CSA Strategy in Rural Zambia, The Journal of Development Studies, 54:3, 457-480, DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2017.1293813

Arslan, A., Belotti, F. and Lipper, L. 2017. Smallholder productivity and weather shocks: Adoption and impact of widely promoted agricultural practices in Tanzania. Food Policy 69:68-81.

Kalamatila, R.; Lungu, O. I.; Shitumbanuma, V. and Arslan, A. 2017. Evaluation of selected soil fertility parameters for improvement of fertilizer recommendations in Zambia. The International Journal of Multi-Disciplinary Research. Paper-ID: CFP/375/2017.

Mason-D’Croz, D.; Vervoort, J.; Palazzo, A.; Islam, S.; Lord, S.; Helfgott, A.; Havlik, P.; Peou, R.; Sassen, M.; Veeger, M.; van Soesbergen, A.; Arnell, A.; Stuch, B.; Arslan, A. and Lipper, L. 2016. Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia. Environmental Modelling Software, 83: 255-270.

Asfaw, S., McCarthy, N., Lipper, L. Arslan, A. and Cattaneo, A. 2016. What determines farmers’ adaptive capacity? Empirical evidence from Malawi. Food Security. DOI 10.1007/s12571-016-0571-0.

Arslan, A., Belotti, F., Asfaw, S., Karfakis, P. and Lipper, L. 2015. “Welfare impacts of climate shocks: evidence from Tanzania,” Forthcoming FAO-ESA Working Paper.

Asfaw, S., Mortari, A., Arslan, A., Karfakis, P. and Lipper, L. 2015. “Welfare Impact of Climate Shocks in Uganda.” Forthcoming FAO-ESA Working Paper. (Also contributed paper submitted for Oral Presentation to IAAE conference in Milan)

Arslan, A., McCarthy, N., Lipper, L., Asfaw, S. and Cattaneo, A. and Kokwe, M. 2015. “Climate Smart Agriculture? Assessing the Adaptation Implications in Zambia,” Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 66, No. 3, pp. 753–780

Arslan, A., Belotti, F. and Lipper, L. 2015. “Smallholder productivity under climatic variability: Adoption and impact of widely promoted agricultural practices in Tanzania,” (Revise & Resubmit in Food Policy).

Arslan, A., Cavatassi, R., McCarthy, N., Lipper, L. and Kokwe, Misael. 2015. “Diversification as CSA? Climate shocks, vulnerability to poverty and diversification in Zambia,” Forthcoming FAO-ESA Working Paper.

Arslan, A., McCarthy, N., Lipper, L., Asfaw, S. and Cattaneo, A. 2014. “Adoption and intensity of adoption of conservation farming practices in Zambia,” Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, Vol. 187, pp. 72–86.

Brodt, Sonja; Kendall, Alissa; Mohammadi, Yaser; Arslan, Aslihan; Yuan, Juhong; Lee, In-Sung and Linquist, Bruce. 2014. “Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions in California rice production.” Field Crops Research; Vol. 169: 89-98.

Aslihan Arslan and J. Edward Taylor (2012). "Transforming Rural Economies: Migration, Income Generation and Inequality in Rural Mexico," Journal of Development Studies, 48:8, 1156-1176

Arslan, A. and Taylor, J.E. 2011. "Whole household migration, inequality and poverty in rural Mexico." Kiel Working Paper No. 1742, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (under revision).

Arslan, A. 2011. "Shadow vs. Market Prices in Explaining Land Allocation: Subsistence Maize Cultivation in Rural Mexico." Food Policy, Vol. 36(5), pp. 606-614. (Previous version: Kiel Working Paper No. 1469)

Arslan, A. and Reicher, C.P. 2011. "The Effects of the Coffee Trademarking Initiative and Starbucks Publicity on Export Prices of Ethiopian Coffee." Journal of African Economies, Vol. 20(5): 704-736. (Previous version: Kiel Working Paper No. 1606)

Arslan, A. and Taylor, J.E. 2010. "Village level inequality, migration and remittances in rural Mexico: How do they change over time?" Kiel Working Paper No. 1622, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

Arslan, Aslihan. 2010. "Conservation and Utilization of Durum Wheat Landraces in Ethiopia: Incentives, Constraints and Opportunities." CIMMYT Consultancy Report. (Forthcoming in the CIMMYT Socioeconomics and Policy Working Paper Series)

Arslan, A., Effenberger, A., Luecke, M. and Mahmoud, T. Omar. 2009. "International Labor Migration and Remittances Beyond the Crisis: Towards Development-friendly Migration Policies." Kiel Policy Brief, No.10.

Arslan, A. and Taylor, J.E. 2009. "Farmers' Subjective Valuation of Subsistence Crops: The Case of Traditional Maize in Mexico." American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 91(4), pp. 956-972.

Teaching and Advising

2009 - cont.:

Advisor for Marcus Boehme, PhD Student. "Analysis of Migration, Remittances and Investment Behaviour in Rural Mexico Using Panel Data."

2009 - 2010:

Advisor for Zuzanna Studnicka, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Advanced Studies Program. "Caste and Gender in the Labor Market: Evidence from India"

Mentor of Rhoda Mofya-Mukuka: PhD at the University of Kiel and AWARD (African Women in Agricultural Research and Development) Fellow. "Value Chain Determinants of Coffee Producer Prices: Focus on Zambia and Tanzania."

2008 - 2009:

Advisor for Paula Nagler, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Advanced Studies Program. "South-South Cooperation in Development Projects "

Advisor for Samyukta Bhupatiraju, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Advanced Studies Program. "Caste Discrimination and Differential Access to Jobs in India"

2008

Lecturer: "Economics of Development" course at University of California, Davis. (Winter Quarter)

Conferences & Workshops

Presentations

Migration, remittances and inequality in rural Mexico: How do they change over time?

- Final Conference of the Transnationality of Migrants (TOM) Network, Venice, September, 2010.

The Effects of the Coffee Trademarking Initiative and Starbucks Publicity on Export Prices of Ethiopian Coffee. (Poster)

- Sixth Annual Conference of the German Development Economics Research Committee, Hannover, June 2010.

- GEWISOLA Conference, Gesellschaft fuer Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues, Kiel, October 2009.

Farmers' Subjective Valuation of Subsistence Crops: The Case of Traditional Maize in Mexico.

- Agrar- und Ernaehrungsoekonomisches Kolloquium, Christian Albrechts University, Kiel, November, 2008.

- IFPRI Brown Bag Seminar, Washington DC, October 2007.

- Mini-Symposium on Markets, Crop Diversity and Farm Welfare, 26th IAAE Conference, Australia, August 2006.

- Pacific Conference for Develoment Economics, University of California, Berkeley, April 2006.

- Doctoral Student Conference, Association of Pacifc Rim Universities, University of Oregon, Eugene, August 2005.

Shadow vs. Market Prices in Explaining Land Allocation: Subsistence Maize Cultivation in Rural Mexico. (Poster)

- Poverty, Equity and Growth Network (PEGNet) Conference, Accra, September 2010.

Organization

Rethinking Agriculture: Thought for Food, Session at the Global Economics Symposium, Ploen, 2009.

Meeting the Rising Global Demand for Food, Session at the Global Economics Symposium, Istanbul, 2010.

Women as Foundation for Rural Development Policy, Session at the Global Economics Symposium, Istanbul, 2010.