Aslihan Arslan's Home Page

Aslihan Arslan, PhD 

About me: I am an Economist at the Agrifood Economics and Policy (ESA) division of Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations (UN).  Since 2024, I lead the research and  writing team of the FAO Flagship Publication "The State of Food and Agriculture" - the oldest Flagship publication of the UN.  I have 15 years of experience in conducting policy relevant applied economics research on a wide range of topics. I have published many articles on agricultural productivity, rural poverty, climate smart agriculture, agrifood systems transformation, youth employment, migration, and climate change. Prior to re-joining FAO, I have worked as a senior economist at the Research and Impact Assessment (RIA) division of IFAD, where I led numerous impact assessments and IFAD’s corporate impact reporting using a unique approach. I have also co-lead IFAD’s flagship publication called Rural Development Report on Investing in Rural Youth in 2019. Between 2011 and 2016, I has worked as a Natural Resource Economist at the Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA) of FAO, where I focused primarily creating evidence on Climate Smart Agriculture in Zambia, Viet Nam and Malawi. Before my UN career, I have worked as a Post-Doctoral Research Economist at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in Germany, where I conducted research on migration, inequality and poverty, as well as the impacts of trademarking on Ethiopian coffee prices.

I received my PhD at the Agricultural and  Resource Economics, UC Davis in December 2007.  My dissertation is titled "Farmers' Subjective Valuation of Subsistence Crops: The Case of Traditional Maize in Mexico", which is an investigation into the subjective values of traditional maize varieties for smallholders in rural Mexico using theoretical and empirical modeling. 

Selected Projects

The State of Food and Agriculture reports of FAO.  

Climate Smart Agriculture: Capturing the Synergies between Mitigation, Adaptation and Food Security

Between 2011 and 2017, I have worked (as part of the Economic and Policy Innovations for Climate Smart Agriculture (EPIC) team at the Agricultural Development Division (ESA) of FAO) on a  project funded by the European Commission designed to support national efforts on climate smart agriculture (CSA) in order to capture the synergies between mitigation, adaptation and food security in Malawi, Zambia and Vietnam. This project addressed knowledge and data gaps through use of existing data and the targeted collection, analysis, and modelling of new information and data in order to inform practices, policies, and strategies with the best possible evidence that is relevant to specific country contexts.  It provided a holistic approach to multiple objectives (food security, mitigation and adaptation) to better align policies and achieve greater cooperation and coordination across national enabling means and action. It created impetus for global action on CSA to support the development of national climate-smart strategies that can guide nationally-led action and provide a basis for mobilizing international support -- for example by generating knowledge and experience that could be fed back into the UNFCCC process, especially for the design of enabling mechanisms for CSA that are currently under development.  

Migration, remittances and inequality: 

During my Post Doc at IFW, I have worked on a DFG funded research project analyzing the dynamics between migration, remittances and inequality in rural Mexico. Empirical literature on the effects of migration on inequality delivered conflicting results.  This project analyzed these dynamic linkages using novel panel data  (ENHRUM) with an extensive coverage of migration histories from farm households in rural Mexico.  It was a collaborative project with J. Edward Taylor and  extended his previous research on the same topic based on cross-sectional data. 

In one of the two recent papers we find that migrant networks grew significantly, inducing remittances to switch from being an unequalising income source to being equalising between 2002 and 2007.  This provides supporting evidence for the migration diffusion hypothesis both at the regional and national levels.  Our fixed effects analysis at the village level, however, shows no clear relationship between village migrant networks and inequality.  We find that the growth of remittances in these villages included significant re-ranking and pro-poor components making it hard to detect changes in inequality at the village level.

The second recent paper in this project investigates the implications of whole household migration (i.e. attrition) for the studies of income distribution and poverty using panel data.  I am also working with a PhD Student related to this project (Marcus Boehme) on a paper that will analyze the impacts of remittances on the investment behavior of both recipient and non-recipient households in rural Mexico with special emphasis on selection.

A novel "value capture" strategy for fine coffee: Trademarks:

The Trademarking and Licensing Initiative of the Ethiopian Government is a brand management strategy that aims to improve the recognition of Ethiopian fine coffees and increase farmers' incomes from Sidamo, Harar and Yirgacheffe coffees.  This research analyzes the effects of the Trademarking and Licensing Initiative on the export prices of Sidamo, Harar and Yirgacheffe coffees as compared to coffees from other origins.  During the early stages of the Initiative, Ethiopian government was involved in a court case with Starbucks at the USPTO regarding the trademarking of "Sidamo."  Ethiopian government engaged in a public relations campaign to raise awareness for the Initiative and urge Starbucks to sign the licensing agreement, which was widely publicized in the international media especially after Oxfam organized a public campaign. This paper evaluates the effect of these "interventions" on the export prices of trademarked Ethiopian coffees. We find that the prices of the trademarked coffees increased by about 10% relative to the non-trademarked coffees following these interventions. The magnitude of this change is comparable with the farm gate prices reported in the literature.  Here is a poster and the working paper of this published work. 

Selected Publications/Working Papers

Arslan, A., Ranuzzi, E., O’Neill, M., Ricciardi, V., Lowder, S. & Vaz, S. 2025. Revealing complementarities across farm scales in global food production – Background paper for The State of Food and Agriculture 2025. FAO Agricultural Development Economics Working Paper 25-13. Rome, FAO.

Lowder, S., Arslan, A., Cabrera Cevallos, C.E., O’Neill, M. & de la O Campos, A.P. 2025. A global update on the number of farms, farm size and farmland distribution – Background paper for The State of Food and Agriculture 2025. FAO Agricultural Development Economics Working Paper 25-14. Rome, FAO.

Adong, A., Kornher, L., Chichaibelu, B.B. & Arslan, A. 2024. The hidden costs of coffee production in Eastern African value chains – Background paper for The State of Food and Agriculture 2024. FAO Agricultural Development Economics Working Paper 24-06. Rome, FAO.

Songsermsawas, T., Mabiso, A., Arslan, A., Chiarella, C. and Savastano, S. 2023. Agricultural value chains and food security in the Pacific: Evidence from Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands. Global Food Security, 39: 100719.

Singh, Sabina, and others (2022). Effective of life skills training interventions for the empowerment of women in developing countries: A systematic review. IEU learning paper (July). Songdo, South Korea: Independent Evaluation Unit, Green Climate Fund.

Sibhatu, K.T., Arslan, A. and Zucchini, E. 2022. The Effect of Agricultural Programmes on Dietary Diversity and Food Security:  Insights from the Smallholder Productivity Promotion Programme in Zambia. Food Policy, 113: 102268

Arslan, A., Cavatassi, R. and Hossain, M. 2022. Food systems and structural and rural transformation: a quantitative synthesis for low and middle income countries, Food Security, 14: 293–320.

Arslan, A., Floress, K., Lamanna, C., Lipper, L., Rosenstock, T.S. 2022. A meta-analysis of the adoption of agricultural technology in Sub-Saharan Africa. PLOS Sustain Transform 1(7): e0000018.

Egger, E., Arslan, A. and Zucchini, E. 2021. Does Connectivity Reduce Gender Gaps in Off-farm Employment? Evidence from 12 Low- and Middle-Income Countries. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy. DOI: 10.1002/aepp.13189

Arslan, A., Tschirley, D. E., Di Nucci, C. and Winters, P. 2021: Youth Inclusion in Rural Transformation, The Journal of Development Studies, 57:4, 537-543, DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2020.1808199

Arslan, A., Tschirley, D. and Egger E. 2021. Rural Youth Welfare along the Rural-urban Gradient: An Empirical Analysis across the Developing World. The Journal of Development Studies, 57:4, 544-570, DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2020.1808197

Dolislager, M., Reardon, T., Arslan, A., Fox, L., Liverpool-Tasie, S., Sauer, C. and Tschirley, D. 2021. Youth and Adult Agrifood System Employment in Developing Regions: Rural (Peri-urban to Hinterland) vs. Urban. The Journal of Development Studies, 57:4, 571-593, DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2020.1808198

Alfani, F., Arslan, A., McCarthy, N., Cavatassi, R., and Sitko, N. 2021. Climate resilience in rural Zambia: Evaluating farmers’ response to El Niño-induced drought. Environment and Development Economics, 26(5-6), 582-604. DOI:10.1017/S1355770X21000097

Weinreb, A., Stecklov, G. and Arslan, A. 2020. Effects of changes in rainfall and temperature on age and sex-specific patterns of rural-urban migration in sub-Saharan Africa. Population and Environment, 42: 219–254. DOI: 10.1007/s11111-020-00359-1

Arslan, A., Floress, K., Lamanna, C., Lipper, L., Asfaw, S. and Rosenstock, T. 2020. The adoption of improved agricultural technologies - A meta-analysis for Africa. IFAD Research Series Nr. 63. Rome: IFAD. https://www.ifad.org/en/web/knowledge/publication/asset/42041675

Bravo-Ureta, B., Higgins, D., and Arslan, A. 2020. Irrigation infrastructure and farm productivity in the Philippines: A Stochastic Meta-Frontier analysis. World Development, vol. 135, 105073, DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105073.

Arslan, A., Tschirley, D. and Egger E. 2019. What drives rural youth welfare? The role of spatial, economic, and household factors.  IFAD Research Series Nr. 42 and Background paper for the IFAD-Rural Development Report 2019, Rome, Italy.

Dolislager, M., Reardon, T., Arslan, A., Fox, L., Liverpool-Tasie, S., Sauer, C. and Tschirley, D. 2019. Youth agrifood system employment in developing countries: a gender-differentiated spatial approach. IFAD Research Series Nr. 43 and Background paper for the IFAD-Rural Development Report 2019, Rome, Italy.

Higgins, D. and Arslan, A. 2019. Can climate resilient infrastructure stimulate inclusive rural transformation? Evidence from Southwest Bangladesh. Mimeo.

Bravo-Ureta, B., Higgins, D., and Arslan, A. 2018. Irrigation infrastructure and farm productivity in the Philippines: A Stochastic Meta-Frontier analysis. Under revision in World Development. 

Higgins, D., Arslan, A. and Winters, P. 2018. What role can small-scale irrigation play in promoting inclusive rural transformation? Evidence from the Irrigated Rice Production Enhancement Project in the Philippines. Revised and resubmitted to the Journal of Development Studies. 

Arslan, A., Cavatassi, R., Alfani, F., McCarthy, N., Lipper, L., and Kokwe, M. 2018. Diversification Under Climate Variability as Part of a CSA Strategy in Rural Zambia, The Journal of Development Studies, 54:3, 457-480, DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2017.1293813

Arslan, A., Belotti, F. and Lipper, L. 2017. Smallholder productivity and weather shocks: Adoption and impact of widely promoted agricultural practices in Tanzania. Food Policy 69:68-81.

Kalamatila, R.; Lungu, O. I.; Shitumbanuma, V. and Arslan, A. 2017. Evaluation of selected soil fertility parameters for improvement of fertilizer recommendations in Zambia. The International Journal of Multi-Disciplinary Research. Paper-ID: CFP/375/2017. 

Mason-D’Croz, D.; Vervoort, J.; Palazzo, A.; Islam, S.; Lord, S.; Helfgott, A.; Havlik, P.; Peou, R.; Sassen, M.; Veeger, M.; van Soesbergen, A.; Arnell, A.; Stuch, B.; Arslan, A. and Lipper, L. 2016. Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia. Environmental Modelling Software, 83: 255-270.

Asfaw, S., McCarthy, N., Lipper, L. Arslan, A. and Cattaneo, A. 2016. What determines farmers’ adaptive capacity? Empirical evidence from Malawi. Food Security. DOI 10.1007/s12571-016-0571-0. 

Arslan, A., Belotti, F., Asfaw, S., Karfakis, P. and Lipper, L. 2015. “Welfare impacts of climate shocks: evidence from Tanzania,” Forthcoming FAO-ESA Working Paper.

Asfaw, S., Mortari, A., Arslan, A., Karfakis, P. and Lipper, L. 2015. “Welfare Impact of Climate Shocks in Uganda.” Forthcoming FAO-ESA Working Paper. (Also contributed paper submitted for Oral Presentation to IAAE conference in Milan)

Arslan, A., McCarthy, N., Lipper, L., Asfaw, S. and Cattaneo, A. and Kokwe, M. 2015. “Climate Smart Agriculture? Assessing the Adaptation Implications in Zambia,” Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 66, No. 3, pp. 753–780

Arslan, A., Belotti, F. and Lipper, L. 2015. “Smallholder productivity under climatic variability: Adoption and impact of widely promoted agricultural practices in Tanzania,” (Revise & Resubmit in Food Policy).

Arslan, A., Cavatassi, R., McCarthy, N., Lipper, L. and Kokwe, Misael. 2015. “Diversification as CSA? Climate shocks, vulnerability to poverty and diversification in Zambia,” Forthcoming FAO-ESA Working Paper.

Arslan, A., McCarthy, N., Lipper, L., Asfaw, S. and Cattaneo, A. 2014. “Adoption and intensity of adoption of conservation farming practices in Zambia,” Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, Vol. 187, pp. 72–86.

Brodt, Sonja; Kendall, Alissa; Mohammadi, Yaser; Arslan, Aslihan; Yuan, Juhong; Lee, In-Sung and Linquist, Bruce. 2014. “Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions in California rice production.” Field Crops Research; Vol. 169: 89-98.

Aslihan Arslan and J. Edward Taylor (2012). "Transforming Rural Economies: Migration, Income Generation and Inequality in Rural Mexico," Journal of Development Studies, 48:8, 1156-1176

Arslan, A. and Taylor, J.E. 2011. "Whole household migration, inequality and poverty in rural Mexico." Kiel Working Paper No. 1742, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (under revision).

Arslan, A. 2011. "Shadow vs. Market Prices in Explaining Land Allocation: Subsistence Maize Cultivation in Rural Mexico." Food Policy, Vol. 36(5), pp. 606-614. (Previous version: Kiel Working Paper No. 1469)

Arslan, A. and Reicher, C.P. 2011.  "The Effects of the Coffee Trademarking Initiative and Starbucks Publicity on Export Prices of Ethiopian Coffee." Journal of African Economies, Vol. 20(5): 704-736.  (Previous version: Kiel Working Paper No. 1606)

Arslan, A. and Taylor, J.E. 2010. "Village level inequality, migration and remittances in rural Mexico: How do they change over time?" Kiel Working Paper No. 1622, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

Arslan, Aslihan. 2010. "Conservation and Utilization of Durum Wheat Landraces in Ethiopia: Incentives, Constraints and Opportunities."  CIMMYT Consultancy Report. (Forthcoming in the CIMMYT Socioeconomics and Policy Working Paper Series)

Arslan, A., Effenberger, A., Luecke, M. and Mahmoud, T. Omar.  2009. "International Labor Migration and Remittances Beyond the Crisis: Towards Development-friendly Migration Policies." Kiel Policy Brief, No.10.

Arslan, A. and Taylor, J.E. 2009.  "Farmers' Subjective Valuation of Subsistence Crops: The Case of Traditional Maize in Mexico." American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 91(4), pp. 956-972.

Teaching and Advising

2009 - 2011:  

Advisor for Marcus Boehme, PhD Student. "Analysis of Migration, Remittances and Investment Behaviour in Rural Mexico Using Panel Data."

2009 - 2010: 

Advisor for Zuzanna Studnicka, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Advanced Studies Program. "Caste and Gender in the Labor Market: Evidence from India"

Mentor of Rhoda Mofya-Mukuka: PhD at the University of Kiel and AWARD (African Women in Agricultural Research and Development) Fellow. "Value Chain Determinants of Coffee Producer Prices: Focus on Zambia and Tanzania."

2008 - 2009: 

Advisor for Paula Nagler, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Advanced Studies Program. "South-South Cooperation in Development Projects "

Advisor for Samyukta Bhupatiraju, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Advanced Studies Program. "Caste Discrimination and Differential Access to Jobs in India"

2008           

Lecturer: "Economics of Development" course at University of California, Davis. (Winter Quarter)

Conferences & Workshops

Presentations

Migration, remittances and inequality in rural Mexico: How do they change over time?

        - Final Conference of the Transnationality of Migrants (TOM) Network, Venice, September, 2010.

The Effects of the Coffee Trademarking Initiative and Starbucks Publicity on  Export Prices of Ethiopian Coffee. (Poster)

        - Sixth Annual Conference of the German Development Economics Research Committee, Hannover,                  June 2010.

        - GEWISOLA Conference, Gesellschaft fuer Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues, Kiel,             October 2009.

Farmers' Subjective Valuation of Subsistence Crops: The Case of Traditional Maize in Mexico.

        - Agrar- und Ernaehrungsoekonomisches Kolloquium, Christian Albrechts University, Kiel, November,                2008.

        - IFPRI Brown Bag Seminar, Washington DC, October 2007.

        - Mini-Symposium on Markets, Crop Diversity and Farm Welfare, 26th IAAE Conference, Australia, August         2006.

        - Pacific Conference for Develoment Economics, University of California, Berkeley, April 2006.

        - Doctoral Student Conference, Association of Pacifc Rim Universities, University of Oregon, Eugene,                 August 2005.

Shadow vs. Market Prices in Explaining Land Allocation: Subsistence Maize Cultivation in Rural Mexico. (Poster)

        - Poverty, Equity and Growth Network (PEGNet) Conference, Accra, September 2010.

Organization

Rethinking Agriculture: Thought for Food, Session at the Global Economics Symposium, Ploen, 2009.

Meeting the Rising Global Demand for Food, Session at the Global Economics Symposium, Istanbul, 2010.

Women as Foundation for Rural Development Policy, Session at the Global Economics Symposium, Istanbul, 2010.