This Figure plots the variation of intraday price moves (left) alongside our quote volatility metric (right) we propose during two recent liquidity-induced crises. The left plot shows the time series dynamics for Nikkei 225 index futures price in green and QV in orange around the August 5, 2024 Japanese crash. The right plot shows the time series for FTSE 100 futures price in blue and QV in coral for around the UK Gilt crisis that started on the 26th of September 2022. We compute Quote Volatility form order book data for each contract. QV consists of summing up the increments in quote price changes at each best ask and the best bid over short time intervals. The data is extracted from LSEG Refinitiv for the front month futures contracts.
In a recent contribution, we use ratios we propose in Bogoev and Karam (2017) to detect the dynamics prior to systemic liquidity crises in high frequency setting. The sample period includes Covid-19 selloffs, flash crashes, UK Gilt crises and recent Japanese August 2024 crash using the most liquid futures contracts. The Figure plots the order book metric we propose, namely Quote Volatility (QV), alongside the price moves of futures indices. As shown here, QV develops and increases persistently with the rapid intraday price declines around the Japanese August 2024 crash, and UK gilt crisis back in September 2022. While the causes for the large price moves in these two events differ, respective markets have experienced extreme selling pressure due to the rapid sell-offs in high frequency setting. Liquidity evaporates from the order books leading to an increase in liquidity risk premium. Market sentiment was already on edge due to the uncertainty, either related to the economy for the UK September 2022 crises, or the global fears/geopolitical tensions/slowdown in the US economy and the reverse in carry trades for the August 2024 crises. We show that QV as a quote oscillator, provides information on the fact that order books are heavy sell at these times. This could signal opportunities to buy and potential reversals. We further suggest that intraday momentum-trading, which consists in trading in the same direction of the price moves, make markets more fragile at these illiquid times. A real-time monitoring of our ratios could allow a timely intervention to mitigate liquidity risks and reduce panic selling and risk of contagion across markets, thus enhancing market stability in highly uncertain times.