Research

Working papers

Forward guidance and fiscal rules in HANK 

A note on simulating the effect of monetary policy changes using only forward curves as inputs 

Wage Indexation in a Cost-of-Living Crisis: Corrective versus Discretionary Fiscal Policies , with Charles de Beauffort, Gregory de Walque, Thomas Lejeune and Jolan Mohimont. 

Income inequality and the German export surplus,  Video.

Empirical DSGE model evaluation with interest rate expectations measures and preferences over safe assets , with Thomas Lejeune and Gregory de Walque

The macroeconomic effects of the Euro Area's fiscal consolidation 2011-2013: A simulation based approach, with Christian Schoder and Jan Strasky. Mentioned by Simon Wren Lewis on his blog.

Refereed publications

Rannenberg, A., 2024. Forward guidance with preferences over safe assets. IMF Economic Review, pp.1-105. 

Rannenberg, A., 2023. The rise in inequality, the decline in the natural interest rate and the increase in household debt. The International Journal of Central Banking. 

de Walque, G., Lejeune, T., Rannenberg, A. and Wouters, R., 2023. Low pass-through and international synchronization in general equilibrium: Reassessing vertical integration. Journal of International Economics, 140, p.103710. 

Lozej, M., Onorante, L. and Rannenberg, A., 2023. Countercyclical capital regulation in a small open economy DSGE model. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 27(5), pp.1230-1267. 

Rannenberg, A., 2021. State-dependent fiscal multipliers with preferences over safe assets. Journal of Monetary Economics, 117, pp.1023-1040.

 Gechert, S. and Rannenberg, A., 2018. Which fiscal multipliers are regime‐dependent? A meta‐regression analysis. Journal of Economic Surveys, 32(4), pp.1160-1182.,

Lozej, M. and Rannenberg, A., 2018. The macroeconomic effects of the LTV and LTI ratios in Ireland. Applied economics letters, 25(21), pp.1507-1511. Mentioned in the Wall Street Journal and web edition of the Irish public broadcaster RTE. 

Hallett, A.H., Rannenberg, A. and Schreiber, S., 2017. Reassessing the Impact of the US Fiscal Stimulus: The Role of the Monetary Policy Stance. International Business Research, 10(4), pp.12-31.

Gechert, S., Hallett, A. H. and Rannenberg, A. (2016) ‘Fiscal multipliers in downturns and the effects of Euro Area consolidation’, Applied Economics Letters, 23(16), pp. 1138–1140. See also the associated voxeu blogpost and CEPR Policy Insight (extended version).

Rannenberg, A., 2016. Bank leverage cycles and the external finance premium. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 48(8), pp.1569-1612.

Rannenberg, A., 2015. The Taylor principle and (in-) determinacy with hiring frictions and skill loss. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 19(5), pp.1045-1073.

Gechert, S. and Rannenberg, A., 2015. The Costs of Greece" s Fiscal Consolidation. Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung, (3), pp.47-59.

Rannenberg, A., 2009. Explaining European unemployment with a New Keynesian new growth model. Macroeconomic Policies on Shaky Foundations-Whither Mainstream Economics.

Forecasting

While working at IMK from 12/2012 to 30/04/2015, I have been in charge of most of the international part of our GDP forecast. My special focus was the EU economy, but I also cover most other important regions. I used the Niser Global Economic Model (NiGEM) to create the forecast. The forecast consists of two big forecast rounds completed in October and April and two smaller updates.