Research

Working Papers

• "Trade Policy as an Exogenous Shock: Focusing on the Specifics.,"  ( Revisions Requested:  Journal of Political Economy. Updated June 2025.)  

-with John Lopresti

• • • NBER w33127

      • First Draft, Upjohn Institute "Trade Policy as an Exogenous Shock: Focusing on the Specifics"

Support:  Upjohn Institute ECRA, NSF #2314696

• "AVE Tariffs are a Misleading Measure of Tariff Policy"   (Updated: March 2026) 

  • This manuscript was previously titled The GATT vs. Inflation: Tokyo Drift.

-with James Lake and John Lopresti

Support:  NSF #2314696

• • • NBER w34429

• "Aggregate and Firm Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, In Real Time.," (May 2020)

-with Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari, and Peter K. Schott.

• • • NBER w26950

Press:  Financial Times (6.9.2020); Bank Underground (6.9.2020); Macrohive (4.8.2020)

Pre-Published:  COVID-19 Economics, Issue 4. 14 April 2020

Grants

 Tariffs and Economic Development in the USA: New Evidence from a New Dataset of US Product-Level Tariffs, 1789 - Present

-NSF  #2314696

Published/Accepted Articles

• "Trade and US Inequality in the Tokyo Round,." -with James Lake and John Lopresti

  • The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2026 

    • NBER w34785

• "Using Equity Markets to Infer Exposure to Trade Liberalization.," with Mihai Ion, John Lopresti, and Peter K. Schott

   Journal of International Economics, 152, November 2024.

• "Exports, Investment and Policy Uncertainty.," with Mihai Ion and John Lopresti.

Canadian Journal of Economics, 52, No. 3,  August 2019.

• "Import Competition and Internal Migration.," with John Lopresti and Peter McHenry  (online appendix)  

Review of Economics and Statistics, 101, pp. 44-59, March 2019.

• "Import Exposure and Human Capital Adjustment: Evidence from the U.S.," with John Lopresti. (online appendix)

Journal of International Economics, 100, pp. 50-60, May 2016.

Work in Progress

• ``US Tariff Policy Since 1789.'' in prerparation for the Journal of Economic Perspectives Symposium on Tariff Policy.

  • with Miguel Acosta, Lydia Cox,  John Lopresti, Christopher Meissner, Martin Rotemberg, and Sharon Traiberman.

• "Tariff Policy: The First and Second Moments," 

  • with  James Lake, John Lopresti,  and Zihan Zhang

• "The Aggregate(d) Effects of Tariff Policy"

  • with Miguel Acosta, Lydia Cox,  James Lake, John Lopresti, and Stefano Lord Medrano

• "Trade Shocks: The Next Generation," 

  • with  James Lake, John Lopresti,   Mine Senses

• "Trade in the House: Import Exposure and the Politics of Trade.,"   

  • with Jackson Howell and John Lopresti

• "Trade Networks," 

  • with Will Olney

Projects in Hiatus

• "Teaching Profit Maximization: A Historical MLB Draft and Simulation Exercise."

• "Learning About Product Quality: Automotive Recalls and Country Reputations."