Research
Publications (Journal Articles)
[P.11] Raiders of the Lost High-Frequency Forecasts: New Data and Evidence on the Efficiency of the Fed's Forecasting, with Trace J. Levinson,
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 38:1 (2023), 88-104. Replication Data and Code. FEDS Working Paper 2020-090 Version. Preanalysis Plan. Replication Data and Code for Working Paper Version.
Introduces a new dataset of Fed staff forecasts of GDP and inflation made between Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
[P.10] Is Economics Research Replicable? Sixty Published Papers from Thirteen Journals Say "Often Not", with Phillip Li,
Critical Finance Review 11:1 (2022), 185-206. Appendix, FEDS Working Paper 2015-083 Version, CELS Slides, Replication Data and Code
Peer-reviewed economics research articles can only be replicated about half of the time using posted data and code.
[P.9] Evaluating the Conditionality of Judgmental Forecasts, with Travis J. Berge and Nitish R. Sinha,
International Journal of Forecasting 35:4 (2019) 1627-1635. FEDS Working Paper 2019-002 Version, Replication Data and Code
Corrigendum for "Evaluating the Conditionality of Judgmental Forecasts" International Journal of Forecasting 37:2 (2021) 672-674.
A method to evaluate whether conditional economic forecasts are formed optimally.
[P.8] Tax Policy Endogeneity: Evidence from R&D Tax Credits,
Economics of Innovation and New Technology 27:8 (2018), 809-833. FEDS Working Paper 2014-101 Version, Replication Data and Code
Tax incentives for research and development (R&D) spending cause firms to increase their R&D spending.
[P.7] A Replication Recipe: List Your Ingredients Before You Start Cooking,
Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 12:39 (2018), 1-8. Economics Discussion Papers, No . 2017-074, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (2017).
Pre-analysis plans are extra useful for replications.
[P.6] Measurement Error in Macroeconomic Data and Economics Research: Data Revisions, Gross Domestic Product, and Gross Domestic Income, with Phillip Li,
Economic Inquiry 56:3 (2018), 1846-1869. Appendix, FEDS Working Paper 2015-102 Version, Replication Data and Code
Economic models can produce very different results due to small errors in the input data.
[P.5] Comparing Cross-Country Estimates of Lorenz Curves Using a Dirichlet Distribution Across Estimators and Datasets, with Phillip Li and Shawn M. Martin,
Journal of Applied Econometrics 33:3 (2018), 473-478. FEDS Working Paper 2017-062 Version, Replication Data and Code
Using different statistical techniques to estimate income inequality yield largely similar estimates of inequality.
[P.4] A Preanalysis Plan to Replicate Sixty Economics Research Papers that Worked Half of the Time, with Phillip Li,
American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 107:5 (2017), 60-64. Replication Data and Code
Peer-reviewed economics research articles can only be replicated about half of the time using posted data and code.
[P.3] Banking Consolidation and Small Firm Financing for Research and Development,
Applied Economics 49:1 (2017), 51-65. FEDS Working Paper 2016-029 Version, Replication Data and Code
The consolidation of banks leads to less financing available for small firms that want to undertake research and development (R&D).
[P.2] The Accuracy of Forecasts Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee, with Tyler J. Hanson,
Journal of Economics and Business 83 (2016), 23-43. FEDS Working Paper 2015-062 Version
The Fed staff forecasts of the U.S. economy over the next six months are accurate.
[P.1] Inter-Industry Strategic R&D and Supplier-Demander Relationships,
Review of Economics and Statistics 95:2 (2013), 491-499. Replication Data and Code
Research and development (R&D) spending is more closely related between industries linked in the supply chain.
Working Papers
[W.5] Does it Pay to Send Multiple Pre-Paid Incentives? Evidence from a Randomized Experiment, with Joanne W. Hsu, Eva Ma, Kate Bachtell, and Micah Sjoblom. FEDS Working Paper 2024-023.
To encourage survey participation, send respondents one amount of money with no strings attached.
[W.4] Shake me the money!, with Francesco Porcelli and Riccardo Trezzi.
Public financing of reconstruction after an earthquake can result in no actual rebuilding because money is wasted.
[W.3] Politicians Avoid Tax Increases Around Elections, with Linda R. Cohen, Amihai Glazer, and Urbashee Paul. Preanalysis Plan.
Politicians avoid both enacting and implementing new taxes in an election year.
[W.2] The Fed's Asymmetric Forecast Errors. FEDS Working Paper 2018-026, Replication Data and Code
The Fed staff are worse at forecasting a recession than an expansion.
[W.1] Nothing is Certain Except Death and Taxes: The Lack of Policy Uncertainty from Expiring "Temporary" Taxes, FEDS Working Paper 2018-041 Version
People expect extensions of temporary taxes.
Other Articles
[O.7] Changes in U.S. Family Finances from 2019 to 2022: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances, with Aditya Aladangady, Jesse Bricker, Sarena Goodman, Jacob Krimmel, Kevin B. Moore, Sarah Reber, Alice Henriques Volz, and Richard A. Windle. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, October 18, 2023. https://doi.org/10.17016/8799.
[O.6] Greater Wealth, Greater Uncertainty: Changes in Racial Inequality in the Survey of Consumer Finances, with Aditya Aladangady and Jacob Krimmel, FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, October 18, 2023.
Families feel more pessimistic about the economy even when their wealth and income go up, especially non-White families.
[O.5] Changes in U.S. Family Finances from 2016 to 2019: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances, with Neil Bhutta, Jesse Bricker, Lisa J. Dettling, Sarena Goodman, Joanne W. Hsu, Kevin B. Moore, Sarah Reber, Alice Henriques Volz, and Richard A. Windle. Federal Reserve Bulletin 106:5 (September 2020).
[O.4] Disparities in Wealth by Race and Ethnicity in the 2019 Survey of Consumer Finances, with Neil Bhutta, Lisa J. Dettling, and Joanne W. Hsu, FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, September 28, 2020. Urban Institute Slides. Replication Code.
For every $100 held by the median White family, the median Black family has $13 and the median Hispanic family has $19.
[O.3] The Branch Puzzle: Why Are There Still Bank Branches? with Elliot Anenberg, Serafin Grundl, Kevin B. Moore, and Richard Windle, FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, August 20, 2018.
People (still) like physical bank branches.
[O.2] Where’s the Money Going? The Importance of Accounting for Rent Payments in Measuring a Household’s Financial Obligations, with Joanne W. Hsu, Sarah J. Pack, and Michael G. Palumbo, FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, June 20, 2018.
Rent payments, not just debt payments, are important for a household's financial position.
[O.1] Measuring the Benefits of Public Energy Research, Development and Demonstration Programs, with Linda R. Cohen and Joaquin Artes, Consulting Report for the Public Interest Energy Research Program (2011).
Engineering Work (my pre-economist days)
Enhanced Vision System for Boeing 737 Business Jets (BBJs)
The EVS capability enhances situational awareness for pilots during approach, landing, taxi and takeoff by presenting an image of the external environment on the Head-up Guidance System and head-down displays. The system uses an infrared sensor to improve the pilots' view of the runway in various conditions including bad weather. This helps pilots to avoid terrain and, early in an approach, to clearly identify the runway and any obstructions. It also assists pilots with "black hole" approaches to airports not equipped with precision landing aids and with landing and maneuvering at unfamiliar airports (Boeing press release from October 18, 2010).