Research

Abstract: Statutory tariff rates may overstate the tariffs actually paid due to evasion and avoidance. We develop a novel method to estimate tariff compliance and apply it to the 2018 trade war, when several countries imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports. Estimated compliance falls by 25 percentage points after tariff increases; a one percentage point tariff increase reduces compliance by 1 to 2 percentage points. Compliance is lower for intermediate goods, which often qualify for duty-free treatment, and for differentiated products, whose valuation is more difficult to verify. The decline accounted for approximately $3.5 billion in foregone tariff revenue in 2019.

Abstract: While prior evidence suggests that school choice lottery winners have lower adult criminality, there is little evidence on how school choice lotteries impact non-applicants. We leverage variation in actual lottery winners, conditional on expected lottery winners, to link the displacement of middle school peers to adult criminal outcomes. We find that non-applicant, lower-risk boys are more likely to be arrested as adults when lottery applicants from their neighborhood do not attend their assigned middle school. Our estimated effects of an applicant's departure on students left behind are similar in magnitude to the positive effects experienced by a lottery winner.

Abstract: Governments increasingly use changes in tax rules to combat evasion. We develop a general approach to point-identify tax compliance along with supply and demand elasticities. Identification requires data on prices and quantities, variation in tax policy, and a demand or supply shifter. We illustrate our approach using data on Airbnb collection agreements, where taxes are enforced by shifting the statutory burden away from hosts and onto renters via the platform. We find that taxes are paid on roughly zero to 1.6 percent of Airbnb transactions prior to enforcement.

Abstract: The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) schedule and lump-sum disbursement can create significant labor supply responses. I estimate labor supply responses to tax credit disbursements using a regression kink design. Among single workers, credits increase labor supply around the time that tax credits are disbursed at the first and second kinks in the EITC schedule but reduce labor supply on the intensive margin at the third kink. There is some evidence of heterogeneous responses among married women, including an increase in labor supply near the third kink, although findings in the sample of married women appear less robust.

Abstract: We study the effects of San Francisco’s Airbnb registration requirement, which is cooperatively enforced by Airbnb, on listing availability, nights booked, and booking prices. At the property-level, we find that the policy reduced Airbnb availability by 20 to 27%, nights booked by 22 to 31%, and increased booking prices by 3.3% relative to properties in untreated cities in the surrounding area. Using data aggregated to the Census tract level, we show that the effects are largest in the most Airbnb-dense neighborhoods. In addition, commercial listings experience larger decreases in supply and bookings than relatively casual listings, and similar increases in booking prices. We estimate that the enforcement of San Francisco’s registration policy reduced nights booked by 27,182 per month and hosts’ revenue by over $5 million per month. Moreover, we find a corresponding reduction in long-term housing prices in San Francisco, providing suggestive evidence that the policy improved affordability of long-term housing.

Abstract: One major criticism of Universal Basic Income is that unconditional cash transfers discourage recipients from working. Evidence to date has largely relied on targeted and/or conditional transfer programs. However, it is difficult to draw conclusions from such programs because universal transfersmay induce a positive demand shock by distributing cash to a large portion of the population, which may in turn offset any negative labor supply responses. We estimate the causal effects of universal cash transfers on short-run labor market activity by exploiting the timing and variation in size of a longrunning unconditional and universal transfer: Alaska’s Permanent Fund Dividend. We find evidence of both a positive labor demand and negative labor supply response to the transfers. Small negative effects on the number of hours worked are found for women, especially those with young children. In contrast, we find an increase in the probability of employment for males in the months following the distribution. Altogether, a $1,000 increase in the per-person disbursement leads to a 0.8 percent labor market contraction on an annual basis.

Abstract: Language immersion education uses a non-English language for a significant portion of instruction. One goal is to develop bilingual

students, which many argue provides cognitive benefits. Using data from school choice lotteries, I estimate the effect of random assignment

to a language immersion school on achievement in math and reading. Winning the lottery has a statistically significant positive effect on math scores, and a positive but statistically insignificant effect on reading. Several peer and school characteristics are ruled out as non-language based alternative explanations for the higher math scores of lottery winners.

Abstract: Tax enforcement is especially costly when market participants are difficult to observe.The benefits of enforcement depend crucially on preenforcement compliance. We derive an upper bound on pre-enforcement compliance from the pass-through of newly enforced taxes. Using data on Airbnb listings and the platform’s voluntary collection agreements, we find that taxes are paid on, at most, 24% of Airbnb transactions prior to enforcement. We also find that demand for Airbnb listings is inelastic, driving three key insights: the tax burden falls disproportionately on renters, the excess burden is small, and tax enforcement is relatively ineffective at reducing local Airbnb activity.

Abstract: Two-way dual language (DL) classrooms enroll students of two different language backgrounds and teach curriculum in both

languages. I estimate the effect of attending a DL school on student achievement using school choice lotteries from Charlotte-Mecklenburg School District in North Carolina, finding local average treatment effects of 0.04 and 0.05 standard deviations per year in math and reading, respectively. Attending a DL school increased test scores for English learners (ELs) and for non-ELs by a similar magnitude. The positive effects of winning the lottery to attend a DL school are substantially larger than the average effect of assignment to other magnet schools, and several peer and school characteristics are ruled out as explanations for the increased test scores. There is no statistically significant evidence that attending a DL school changed the probability of having EL status throughout elementary school.

Abstract: Recent research has documented the relatively poor performance of boys, especially those from single-mother households, on a number of outcomes. Differences in noncognitive skills are often cited as a main contributing factor. However, we still know little about the underlying mechanisms driving differences in noncognitive skills and other outcomes. This article provides empirical evidence that parental time investments, defined as the amount of time that parents spend participating in activities with their child, change differentially by child gender following a transition from a two-parent to single-mother household. Boys experience larger investment reductions following the change in household structure, which may help facilitate previously documented gender gaps in noncognitive skills for those in single-mother households. Boys lose an estimated additional 3.8 hours per week in fathers’ time investments, nearly 30%of average weekly paternal investments across the sample. The difference is increasing with age, concentrated in leisure and entertainment activities, with little to no evidence that mothers increase investments in boys relative to girls after such transitions.

Abstract: We examine residential relocation and opting out of the public school system in response to school choice lottery outcomes.We show that rising kindergartners and sixth graders who lose a school choice lottery are 6 percentage points more likely to exit the district or change neighborhood schools (20% to 30% increase) andmake up 0.14 to 0.35 standard deviations in average school test scores between lottery assignment and attendance the following year. Using hedonic-based estimates of land prices, we estimate that lottery losers pay a 9% to 11% housing price premium for access to a school with a 1 standard deviation higher mean test score.

Abstract: This paper explores the effect of a paired lab course on students’ course outcomes in non-majors introductory biology at the University of Alaska Anchorage. We compare course completion and final grades for 10,793 students (3736 who simultaneously enrolled in the lab and 7057 who did not). Unconditionally, students who self-select into the lab are more likely to complete the course and to earn a higher grade than students who do not. However, when we condition on observable course, academic, and demographic characteristics, we find much of this difference in student performance outcomes is attributable to selection bias, rather than an effect of the lab itself. The data and discussion challenge the misconception that labs serve as recitations for lecture content, noting that the learning objectives of science labs should be more clearly articulated and assessed independent of lecture course outcomes.