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"Drivers of COVID-19 in U.S. counties: A wave-level analysis" (with Baum, C., Otero, J., Henry, M.). Economics and Human Biology, 58, 2025.
"Agglomeration and Skills: Explaining Regional Wage Disparities in Colombia" (with Londoño, D.). Regional Science Policy & Practice, 17 (10), 2025.
"Drivers of Economic Abuse: An Analysis of the Colombian Case" (with Céspedes-Báez, L., Ennis, G.). Violence Against Women. https://doi.org/10.1177/10778012251338372.
"Predicting Diabetes Mellitus Metabolic Goals and Chronic Complications Transitions—Analysis Based on Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning Models" (with C., Colmenares-Mejia, Rodriguez, P., Lochmuller, C., Atehortúa, S., Camacho-Cogollo, Martinez, J., Rincón J., Céspedes, Y. Morales-Mendoza, E., Isaza-Ruget, M., ). PLOS One, 20(4), e0321258.
Nightlight, landcover and buildings: understanding intracity socioeconomic differences (with Varela, D)
Monitoring patterns of segregation and inequality at small area geographic levels is extremely costly. However, the increased availability of data through nontraditional sources such as satellite imagery facilitates this task. This paper assess the relevance of data from nightlight and day-time satellite imagery as well as building footprints and localization of points of interest for mapping variability in socioeconomic outcomes, i.e., household income, labor formality, life quality perception and household informality. The outcomes are computed at a granular level by combining census data, survey data, and small area estimation. The results reveal that non traditional sources are important to predict spatial differences socio-economic outcomes. Furthermore, the combination of all sources creates complementarities that enable a more accurate spatial distribution of the studied variables.
Occupational downgrading of Venezuelan migrants in Colombia: Do work permits Improve occupational mobility? (with Mondragón, A., Sarango, A.)
Immigration policies prioritize labor market integration, aiming for high employment rates and leveraging migrant skills to enhance host country productivity. However, migrants often face entry barriers and human capital misallocation. This article examines the occupational downgrading of Venezuelan migrants in Colombia and assesses the impact of work permit policies on mitigating this trend. Our empirical findings highlight significant occupation downgrading, prompting an exploration of the role of work permits. The analysis indicates that permits have expanded employment prospects for migrants who were previously unemployed or engaged in blue-collar jobs, mainly for females and the youngest population. While permits do not significantly reduce occupation downgrading they are associated with more formal job search mechanisms. Moreover, our findings show no significant impact of work permits on the intensity of routinization; instead, there is an increase in the intensity of non-routine analytic and interactive tasks among the youngest workers. This suggests that permits could be complemented with additional instruments to enhance migrant matching in the labor market.
Barriers to the Integration of Venezuelan Migrants and Refugees in Colombia (with Ardila, L., Dávalos, M.)
Integration migrants has become a central challenge and opportunity for public policy in the medium term, to mitigate the impacts and maximize the benefits. This study explores the factors that enhance or reduce barriers to accessing opportunities. Based on data from the Migration Pulse (MP) survey, our analysis finds that access to information, contact networks, and documents for migratory status regularization play an important role in facilitating access to services and improving this group’s employability. Thus, the findings show the interrelationship between integration policies and their complementarity, such as those related to healthcare access and the regularization process. Overall, the results provide evidence supporting the convenience of place-based policies.
Fiscal policy and informality in Colombia (with F. Jaramillo, M. Gomez)
This paper studies how informality reacts to fiscal policy instruments. We develop an analytical framework with a dual labor market with frictions, where the formal sector, in contrast to the informal sector, produces with technology using capital and pay taxes. We calibrate the model for the Colombian economy and quantify to what extent a decrease in payroll taxes is effective to create formal jobs in a context where government compensates for the reduction in revenues by using other fiscal instruments, such as reducing expenditure or increasing other taxes, e.g., consumption or capital income taxes.
“Family protocols: determinants and their impact on governance and firm performance” (with Guzman, A., Melis, A., and Trujillo, M.).
“Drivers of COVID-19 waves in U.S. counties, 2020-2022” (with Otero, J., Baum, C., and Henry, M.).
“The next bus out: Urban public transportation and multidimensional poverty in Cartagena” (with Gomez, Y.)
“Assessing the Unequal Impacts of AI on the Colombian Labor Market” (with with Caiza-Guamán, P., Sarango-Iturralde, A., Gil, M., and Acosta D.)
“Drivers of economic abuse: an analysis of the case of Colombia” (with Ennis, G., and Cespedes, L.)
“Polarization, automation and informality in Colombia” (with Sarango-Iturralde, A., Jaramillo, F., and Desdoigts, A.)
"Drivers of COVID-19 in U.S. counties: A wave-level analysis" (with Baum, C., Otero, J., Henry, M.). Economics and Human Biology, 58, 2025.
"Agglomeration and Skills: Explaining Regional Wage Disparities in Colombia" (with Londoño, D.). Regional Science Policy & Practice, 17 (10), 2025.
"Drivers of Economic Abuse: An Analysis of the Colombian Case" (with Céspedes-Báez, L., Ennis, G.). Violence Against Women. https://doi.org/10.1177/10778012251338372.
"Predicting Diabetes Mellitus Metabolic Goals and Chronic Complications Transitions—Analysis Based on Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning Models" (with C., Colmenares-Mejia, Rodriguez, P., Lochmuller, C., Atehortúa, S., Camacho-Cogollo, Martinez, J., Rincón J., Céspedes, Y. Morales-Mendoza, E., Isaza-Ruget, M., ). PLOS One, 20(4), e0321258.
"An application of natural language processing for hypoglycemic event identification in patients with diabetes mellitus" (with Camacho-Cogollo, J., Patino, C., Lochmuller, C., Colmenares-Mejia, C., Rozo, N., Isaza-Ruget, M., Rodriguez, P.). Healthcare Analytics, 7, 2025.
"Regional disparities in amenities and the life satisfaction of internal migrants" (with Guevara-Rosero, G., Sarango-Iturralde, A.). Journal of Regional Research, 2024.
"The external effects of public housing developments on informal housing: The case of Medellín, Colombia" (with Posada, H., Londoño, D.) . Papers in Regional Science, 103 (1), 2024.
"Exploratory analysis of the determinants of informality in emerging and frontier economies: an institutional approach via PLS-SEM" (with Buitrago, R., Garzon, J.) . Development Studies Research, 11 (2), 2024.
"Transit infrastructure and informal housing: Assessing an expansion of Medellín's Metrocable system" (with Posada, H.). Transport Policy, 128, p. 209-228, 2022.
"Distribution Regression in Duration Analysis: An Application to Unemployment Spells" (with Delgado, M., and Sant'Anna, P.). Econometrics Journal, 25 (3), p. 675–698 , 2022. . [Replication files]
"Measuring the Contribution of the Bioeconomy: The Case of Colombia and Antioquia" (with Alviar, M., Ramírez-Gómez, L., Villegas-Velásquez, S. ). Sustainability, 13, 2353, 2021.
“Exporters’ agglomeration and the survival of export flows: empirical evidence from Colombia” (with Argüello, R., and Valderrama, D.). Review of World Economics, 156, p. 703-729, 2020.
“Predicting early career productivity of PhD economists: Does advisor-match matter?” (with Otero, J., and Winkelmann, R.). Scientometrics, 122, p. 429-449, 2020.
Beyond the Mincer Equation: The Internal Rate of Return to Higher Education in Colombia (with Guataquí, J, Guerra, J, and Maldonado D.). Education Economics, 22, No 3, p. 328-344, 2014.
Differences in Motivations and Academic Achievement (with Gamboa, L., and Rodriguez, M.). Lecturas de Economía, No 78, p. 9-44, 2013.
The Cyclical Behavior of Bank Capital Buffers in an Emerging Economy: Size Do Matters (with Gómez, J., Murcia, A., and Tenjo-Galarza, F.). Economic Modelling, Vol 29, No 5, p. 1612-1617, 2012.
A Simple Test of Momentum in Foreign Exchange Markets (with Gómez, J.). Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Vol. 48, No 5, p. 69-81, 2012.
Structural Determinants of Trade Union Membership in Colombia (with Guataquí, J., and Rodríguez, M.). Perfil de Coyuntura Económica, 17, p. 31-50, 2011.
Statistical Inference for Testing Gini Coefficients: An Application for Colombia (with Gamboa, L., and Otero, J.). Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Vol 28, No 62, p. 226-238, 2010.
The Profile of Labor Informality in Colombia (Guataquí, J., and Rodríguez, M., in Spanish). Perfil de Coyuntura Económica, 16, p. 91-115, 2010.
The Competing Risk of Acquiring and Being Acquired: Evidence for Colombia’s Financial Sector (with Gómez, J.). Economic Systems, Vol 34, No 4, p. 437-449, 2010.
Factor Shares and Growth Accounting in Colombia (1984-2005): A New Growth Accounting Methodology (with Zuleta, H., Parada, J., and Campo, J., in spanish). Desarrollo y Sociedad, 65, p. 71-121, 2010.
Country Risk Ratings and Financial Crises 1995-2001: A Survival Analysis (with Bonilla, L., and Roa, M.). The Review of Business Journal, Vol 30, No 1, p.33-45, 2009.
Effects of the Labor Reform: More Work and Less Employees? (with Guataquí, J., in Spanish). Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Vol 27, No 60, p. 46-79, 2009.
Determinants of Mergers and Acquisitions in the Colombian Banking Sector. 1990-2007 (with Gómez, J., in Spanish). Revista de Economía del Rosario, Vol 12, No 1, p. 45-65, 2009.
Whom is Unemployment Affecting? Analysis of Incidence Rate in Colombia (with Guataquí, J., and Forero, N., in Spanish). Lecturas de Economía, No 70, p. 109-136, 2009.
The New Methodology of Household Surveys and the Continuity of the Urban Labor Market Series in Colombia (with Posada, C., and Arango, L., in Spanish). Desarrollo y Sociedad, No 61, p. 207-248, 2008.
An Application of Majorization Order on a Production-Inventory Problem (with Laniado, H., and Castañeda, D., in Spanish). Revista de Ingeniería de la Universidad de Antioquia, No 39, p. 112-117, 2007.
Production-Inventory Model with Non-Production Time Proportional to Production Time (with Laniado, H., in Spanish). Ingeniería y Ciencia, Vol 2, No. 3, p. 51-64, 2006.
Unpaid care and domestic work in Colombia (with V. Ospina-Cartagena) MPRA Paper 100917, University Library of Munich, Germany, 2020.
Distribution Regression in Duration Analysis: An Application to Unemployment Spells (with Delgado, M., and Sant'Anna, P.). Papers 1904.06185, arXiv.org, 2019.
Counterfactual Analysis Using Censored Duration Data (with Delgado, M.). UC3M Working papers. Economics 2782, 2018.
Remittances and Labor Supply in the Northern Triangle (with D. Sousa, L.). Policy Research Working Paper Series 8597, The World Bank, 2018.
Young Innovative Firms, Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities and Technological Misallocation (with Gomez, J., and Valencia, O.). Documentos de Trabajo No 200. Facultad de Economía, Universidad del Rosario, 2017.
Oaxaca-Blinder Type Counterfactual Decomposition Methods for Duration Outcomes. Documentos de Trabajo No 183. Facultad de Economía, Universidad del Rosario, 2016.
Information Externalities and Export Duration at the Firm Level (with Arguello, R., and Valderrama, D.). Documentos de Trabajo No 147. Facultad de Economía, Universidad del Rosario, 2013.
Effect of Tax Policy in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model with Informal Sector: An application for Colombia (with Gómez, M., and Jaramillo, F., in Spanish). Documentos de Trabajo No 139. Facultad de Economía, Universidad del Rosario, 2013.
Deepening, Openness and Closure of Export Markets at Sectoral Level in Colombia: Estimation of Trade Margins across Economic Cycle (with Arguello, R., and Valderrama, D., in Spanish). Documentos de Trabajo No 131. Facultad de Economía, Universidad del Rosario, 2013.
Access to Computer and Academic Achievement. Where is it Best: at Home or at School? (with Gamboa, L.). Discussion Paper No 47. Center for Studies on Inequality and Development, 2011.
An Analysis of the Relationship between Wages in the Public and Private Sector in Colombia: A Panel Data Approach (with Otero, J., and Gamboa, L.). Documentos de Trabajo No 97. Facultad de Economía, Universidad del Rosario, 2011.
Job Satisfaction in a Developing Country: Exploring the Work-Family Rivalry (with Gamboa, L., and Rodríguez, M.). Documentos de Trabajo No 93. Facultad de Economía, Universidad del Rosario, 2011.
Evidence of Induced Innovation in US Sectoral Capital’s Shares (with Young, A., and Zuleta, H.). Documentos de Trab+ajo No 80. Facultad de Economía, Universidad del Rosario, 2010.
Factor shares at the sector level, Colombia 1990-2005 (with Young, A., and Zuleta, H.). Documentos de Trabajo No 76. Facultad de Economía, Universidad del Rosario, 2009.
Retirement Saving in Colombia: Patterns and Determinants (with Guataquí, J., and Rodríguez, M., in Spanish). Documentos de Trabajo No 72. Facultad de Economía, Universidad del Rosario, 2009.
Estimations of Labor Income Determinants in Colombia Considering Employees and Self-employed as Different Groups (with Guataquí, J., and Rodríguez, M., in Spanish). Documentos de Trabajo No 70. Facultad de Economía, Universidad del Rosario, 2009.
Wage Structure and Segmentation in Colombian Labor Market: An Analysis for the Seven Main Cities, 2001-2005 (with Mesa, D., and Roa, M., in Spanish). Documentos de Trabajo No 52. Facultad de Economía, Universidad del Rosario, 2008.
Inflation and Unemployment in Colombia: NAIRU and Unemployment Rate Compatible with Inflation Targeting, 1984-2005 (with Posada, C., and Arango, L., in Spanish), Borradores de economía, No 453, Banco de la República, 2007.
Do Instability Stop the Economic Growth? (with Posada, C., and Morales, C., in Spanish). Borradores de economía, No 442, Banco de la República, 2007.
Is the Quantity of Money important?: Inflation Targeting and Quantity Theory of Money (with Posada, C., in Spanish). Borradores de economía, No 403, Banco de la República, 2006.
Labor Income Share and Biased Technical Change (with Baez, J., and D. Sousa, L.). In: When Growth Is Not Enough: Explaining the Rigidity of Poverty in the Dominican Republic. Editors: Carneiro, F., and Sirtaine, S., eds.. World Bank Publications, 2017.
Inflation and Unemployment in Colombia: NAIRU and Unemployment Rate Compatible with Inflation Targeting, 1984-2005 (with Posada, C., and Arango, L., in Spanish). In: El Mercado Colombiano en Colombia: Hechos, Tendencias e Instituciones. Editors: Banco de la República –Central Bank of Colombia–. 2013.
The Colombian Pension System: Challenges and Reform Perspectives (in Spanish). LaboUR,2024.
Who Are the Green Workers in Colombia? (in Spanish). LaboUR, 2023.
X-ray of the Labor Market for Healthcare Professionals (in Spanish). LaboUR, 2023.
Youth Labor Market in Colombia: Progress, Challenges, and Perspectives (in Spanish). LaboUR, 2022.
Labor Market for People with Disabilities (in Spanish). LaboUR, 2022.
Wage Gap in Colombia: A Comparative Study of Population Groups (in Spanish). LaboUR, 2022.
Service Contracts: What Is the Problem? (in Spanish). LaboUR, 2022.
Overview of Minimum Wage Negotiations for 2021 (in Spanish). LaboUR, 2020.
Gender Wage Gap in Colombia (in Spanish). DANE, 2020.
Imputation of Informality Status for Employed Workers in Colombia for March and April 2020 (in Spanish). DANE, 2020.
Informality, mobility and COVID-19 (in Spanish). Proantioquia, 2020.
The effect of lockdown measures on employment and economic activity during COVID-19 containment in Antioquia (in Spanish). Proantioquia, 2020.
Vulnerability of the Colombian labor market to COVID19 (in Spanish). LaboUR, 2020.
An overview fof the minimum wage 2019 bargaining in Colombia (in Spanish). LaboUR, 2018.
Challenges and Structure of Informality in Colombia (in Spanish). LaboUR, 2018.
Patterns of job satisfaction in Colombian urban labor market (in Spanish). LaboUR, 2018.
Characterization of recent Venezuelan immigrants (in Spanish). LaboUR, 2017.
Inactivity and unemployment of young population in Colombia (in Spanish). LaboUR, 2017.
An overview fof the minimum wage 2017 bargaining in Colombia (in Spanish). LaboUR, 2016.