Refereed Publications- "Culture, Work Attitudes and Job Search: Evidence From the Swiss Language Border", joint with Beatrix Eugster, Rafael Lalive, and Josef Zweimüller, Journal of the European Economic Association (2017) 15(5): 1056-1100. (WP version)
Abstract:
Unemployment varies across space and in time. Can attitudes toward work explain some of these differences? We study job search durations along the Swiss language border, sharply separating Romance language speakers from German speakers. According to surveys and voting results, the language border separates two social groups with different cultural background and attitudes toward work. Despite similar local labor markets and identical institutions, Romance language speakers search for work almost seven weeks (or 22%) longer than their German speaking neighbors. This is a quantitatively large effect, comparable to a large change in unemployment insurance generosity.
- "Asymmetry of Individual and Aggregate Inflation Expectations: A Survey", joint with Nikola Mirkov, The Manchester School (2017) doi:10.1111/manc.12190
Abstract:
We conducted a simple, anonymous survey at the beginning of 2014, asking around 200
economists worldwide to report their medium‐term expectations about US inflation.
A significant share of respondents revealed asymmetric inflation expectations with
sizeable deviation from symmetry. We obtain an aggregate distribution that is moderately
skewed to the right and show that the aggregate skewness is mostly driven by disagreement
among respondents and not by asymmetry of their subjective distributions. In fact,
ignoring individual asymmetry changes little in terms of mean and variance of the
aggregate distribution.
- "Parental Leave and Mothers' Careers: The Relative Importance of Job Protection and Cash Benefits", joint with Rafael Lalive, Analia Schlosser, and Josef Zweimüller, Review of Economic Studies (2014) 81 (1): 219-265. (WP version)
Abstract:
Job protection and cash benefits are key elements of parental leave (PL) systems. We study how these two policy instruments affect return-to-work and medium-run labor market outcomes of mothers of newborn children. Analyzing a series of major PL policy changes in Austria, we find that longer cash benefits lead to a significant delay in return-to-work, particularly so in the period that is job-protected. Prolonged parental leave absence induced by these policy changes does not appear to hurt mothers' labor market outcomes in the medium run. We build a non-stationary model of job search after child-birth to isolate the role of the two policy instruments. The model matches return-to-work and return to same employer profiles under the various factual policy configurations. Counterfactual policy simulations indicate that a system that combines cash with protection dominates other systems in generating time for care immediately after birth while maintaining mothers' medium run labor market attachment.
- "The Demand for Social Insurance: Does Culture Matter?", joint with Beatrix Eugster, Rafael Lalive, and Josef Zweimüller. Economic Journal 121(556), 413-448, November 2011. (WP version)
Abstract:
Does culture shape the demand for social insurance against risks to
health and work? We study this issue across language groups in
Switzerland where a language border sharply separates social groups at identical
actual levels of publicly provided social insurance. We find
substantially stronger support for expansions of social insurance among
residents of French, Italian or Romansh-speaking language border
municipalities compared with their German-speaking neighbours in
adjacent municipalities. Informal insurance does not vary enough to
explain stark differences in social insurance but differences in
ideology and segmented media markets potentially contribute to the
discrepancy in demand for social insurance.
Work in Progress- "Motherhood Timing and the Child Penalty: Bounding the Returns to Delay", with Aniko Biro and Steven Dieterle: CEPR DP
Abstract:
We use administrative data from Austria to analyze labor market returns to delaying motherhood. We exploit delays due to pregnancy loss to provide bounds on the returns that account for imperfect instruments and selection into the sample for mothers that suffer a loss. Our results suggest small effects of delay on earnings, employment, and firm quality---in contrast with the prior literature. The lower bounds suggest little difference in earnings trajectories around the first birth. This raises the possibility that much of the return may come from delaying the "child penalty" rather than changing how the career responds to children.
- "Child Penalties Across Countries: Evidence and Explanations", with Henrik Kleven, Camille Landais, Johanna Posch, and Josef Zweimüller: WP
Abstract:
This paper provides evidence on child penalties in female and male earnings in different countries. The estimates are based on event studies around the birth of the first child, using the specification proposed by Kleven et al. (2018). The analysis reveals some striking similarities in the qualitative effects of children across countries, but also sharp differences in the magnitude of the effects. We discuss the potential role of family policies (parental leave and child care provision) and gender norms in explaining the observed differences.
- "Working Moms, Childlessness, and Female Identity": CEPR DP, LIEPP WP
Abstract:
In this paper I provide empirical evidence that the strength of beliefs regarding the harm children suffer when their mothers work plays an important role in explaining gender gaps in labor market outcomes and fertility trends. I exploit a unique setting in Switzerland and compare outcomes of one cohort of Swiss women born in the 1950s either into the French or German ethno-linguistic group. This allows me to compare outcomes of women exposed to different norms regarding working mothers while holding constant typical confounding factors such as composition, labor market opportunities, and work-family policies. Consistent with the strong belief that children suffer with working mothers in the German region, I find that German-born women are 15-25% less likely to work as mothers and 20-20% more likely to remain childless compared to their French-born peers. Only the extensive margins show marked differences and especially among the highly educated. I argue that an identity framework along the lines of Akerlof and Kranton (2000) can rationalize these patterns in a tractable way.
- "Child penalty, child care, and parental leave in Austria", with Johanna Posch and Josef Zweimüller
- "Fertility and the Nazis", with Josef Zweimüller
- "The Contribution of Doctors to Health Care Spending: Evidence from Austria", with Sebastian Findeisen and Josef Zweimüller
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