Research
Peer-reviewed publications:
Socio-demographic factors associated with COVID-19 vaccine uptake and refusal among Ugandan women
Globalization and Health, Vol. 19, No. 68, 2023
This study documents a low COVID-19 vaccination rate and a high willingness to get vaccinated among Ugandan women. Positive age and education gradients in vaccine uptake point to inequity in access to vaccination, potentially resulting from prioritizations of groups at particularly high risk. Refusal to be vaccinated was relatively low and systematic factors behind vaccine refusal were hardly to be found, even less so for particular reasons given for refusal.
Pregnancies and contraceptive use in four African countries during the COVID-19 pandemic
Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vol. 20, 2022
Winner of the 2022 IPUMS Global Health Research Award for papers using IPUMS PMA
The COVID-19 pandemic and the public health measures adopted in response to it have triggered plenty of speculation about the potential impact on fertility indifferent regions of the globe. This study provides evidence on the fertility response in four sub-Saharan African countries during the first year of the pandemic. Using harmonized data on women of childbearing age from the Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA) data series, this study compares pregnancy rates at the turn of the year 2020/21 to a pre-pandemic baseline. There is no indication of a general increase in pregnancy rates after the beginning of the pandemic. In some of the sample countries, pregnancy rates during this phase of the COVID-19 pandemic instead fell significantly among the youngest and the least educated women of childbearing age, respectively. The findings also indicate that over this period, rates of modern contraceptive usage rose significantly among the surveyed female populations in several sample countries.
Female labor force participation in sub-Saharan Africa: A cohort analysis
joint with Elke Loichinger, Population and Development Review, Vol. 48, No. 2, June 2022, pp. 379-411
Female labor force participation rates have been stagnating despite rising female education in sub-Saharan Africa since the turn of the millennium. Using representative and repeated census data from a heterogeneous sample of 13 sub-Saharan African countries, this paper analyzes female labor force participation from a demographic perspective. We show that enrollment in education is substantially higher among the most recent female cohorts than among the earlier-born ones. The higher enrollment mechanically depresses female labor force participation, weakening the relationship between female labor force participation and education. After taking this cohort trend into account, we find a strong and positive association between female labor force participation and female education. We further find a cohort trend toward higher female employment in the nonprimary sector and a positive association between female employment in the nonprimary sector and female education. The higher investments in education by younger female cohorts, together with the demographics of sub-Saharan African countries, have implications for a potentially arising “demographic dividend”.
International travel in times of the COVID-19 pandemic: The case of German school breaks
Economics & Human Biology, Vol. 44, January 2022, 101090
Link to article at ScienceDirect, link to open access at PMC
The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered severe global restrictions on international travel with the intention of limiting the spread of SARS-CoV-2 across countries. This paper studies the causal effect of the partial relaxation of these travel restrictions in Europe on the COVID-19 incidence in Germany during the summer months of 2020. It exploits the staggered start of the summer school breaks across German states as an exogenous shock to the travel opportunities of the population. While the school breaks also increased mobility within Germany, the event-study type regressions precisely control for domestic mobility and local COVID-19-related restrictions. The intention-to-treat effects of the relaxed travel restrictions show a significant and sizable increase of the COVID-19 incidence in German counties during the later weeks of the school breaks. Part of the increase can be attributed to a mandatory testing regime for travel returnees from high-incidence areas.
The effect of grandchildren on grandparental labor supply: Evidence from Europe
joint with Mikkel Barslund, European Economic Review, Vol. 137, August 2021, 103817
Link to fulltext
Grandparents at working age frequently take care of their grandchildren. These time transfers may constrain the formal labor supply of grandparents. Using an instrumental variable strategy and multiple waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we estimate the causal effect of grandparenthood on the labor supply of working-age grandparents in ten European countries. We find a large negative impact of grandparenthood on the employment rate of women aged 55 to 64. The effect is particularly pronounced in countries where the availability of formal childcare is low. A complier characterization reveals that the large LATE applies to a small but not selected group of potential grandmothers and may explain a substantial share of the gender gap in employment at later working age. Male labor supply does not significantly adjust in response to grandparenthood. We further find that grandmothers are more likely to transfer gifts to their children than women who are not grandmothers, whereby grandmothers substitute between time and gift transfers.
Do climate variations explain bilateral migration? A gravity model analysis
joint with Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso and Chris Muris, IZA Journal of Migration, 2015, 4:3
This paper investigates to what extent international migration can be explained by climatic variations. A gravity model of migration augmented with average temperature and precipitation in the country of origin is estimated using a panel data set of 142 sending countries for the period 1995 to 2006. We find two primary results. First, temperature is positively correlated with migration. Second, stronger changes in precipitation are also associated with aligned, but small changes in migration. Both effects are robust to various model modifications. Furthermore, we present initial explorations into the channels relating climate changes with migration via agriculture and internal conflict.
Working Papers:
Fading legacies: Human capital in the aftermath of the Partitions of Poland
EHES Working Paper No. 150, featured on Marginal Revolution
This paper studies the longevity of historical legacies in the context of the formation of human capital. The Partitions of Poland (1772-1918) represent a natural experiment that instilled Poland with three different legacies of education, resulting in sharp differences in human capital among the Polish population. I construct a large, unique dataset that reflects the state of schooling and human capital in the partition territories from 1911 to 1961. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design, I find that primary school enrollment differs by as much as 80 percentage points between the partitions before WWI. However, this legacy disappears within the following two decades of Polish independence, as all former partitions achieve universal enrollment. Differences in educational infrastructure and gender access to schooling simultaneously disappear after WWI. The level of literacy converges likewise across the former partitions, driven by a high intergenerational mobility in education. After WWII, the former partitions are not distinguishable from each other in terms of education anymore.
Ethnic favoritism and democracy: Evidence from Ghana
Available on request.
Forecasting intensive care unit demand during the COVID-19 pandemic: A spatial age-structured microsimulation model
joint with Sebastian Klüsener et al.
Available as preprint at medRxiv
We implement a spatial age-structured microsimulation model of the COVID-19 pandemic by extending the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) framework. The model accounts for regional variation in population age structure and in spatial diffusion pathways. In a first step, we calibrate the model by applying a genetic optimization algorithm against hospital data on ICU patients with COVID-19. In a second step, we forecast COVID-19-related ICU demand under alternative scenarios of COVID 19 progression reflecting different levels of NPIs. We apply the model to Germany and provide state-level forecasts over a 2-month period, which can be updated daily based on latest data on the progression of the pandemic.
Nighttime lights and subnational development: A systematic evaluation
This paper evaluates the ability of nighttime lights to proxy development at the subnational level. I construct a dataset that contains disaggregated information on human capital and electrification in a sample of developing countries. The dataset allows me to systematically vary the level of spatial aggregation and to switch between a cross-sectional and a longitudinal perspective. The results show that nighttime lights proxy subnational development in every considered spatial and temporal combination.
Skills in African labor markets and implications for migration to Europe
This paper assesses the potential for skilled labor migration from sub-Saharan Africa to Europe. It utilizes representative surveys from Ghana and Kenya to shed light on the quality and distribution of skills in the labor markets of these countries. It then uses comparable surveys from European OECD countries to assess the overlap of the African and the European skill distributions. Finally, it considers hypothetical scenarios regarding the skill level that workers in sub-Saharan Africa would need in order to qualify for migration to Europe. It is shown that European countries would have to recruit workers from the very top end of the African skill distribution to match European demands for skills.