Publications
Multi-product firm price and variety response to firm-specific cost shocks” (with Sofronis Clerides and Mingzhi Xu), International Journal of Industrial Organization, 90 (2023): 102984.
Using Retail Distribution To Impute Expenditure Shares (with Robert Feenstra and Mingzhi (Jimmy) Xu), American Economic Review, vol 112.7 (2022): 2213-2236
Micro Responses to Shocks: Pricing, Promotion, and Entry (with Sofronis Clerides and Mingzhi Xu), Scandinavian Journal of Economics, vol 124. 4 (2022):
What is the Price of Tea in China? Towards the Relative Cost of Living in Chinese and U.S. Cities. (with Robert Feenstra and Mingzhi (Jimmy) Xu). The Economic Journal, 130.632 (2020): 2438-2467.
Mortgage Credit Conditions and U.S. Presidential Elections (with Charles W. Calomiris), European Journal of Political Economy, vol 64(2), June 2020
Does Altruism Matter for Remittances? (with Ganesh Seshan, Robertas Zubrickas, and Roberto Weber), Oxford Economic Papers, 2019, 70.1 (2018): 225-242.
Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Retail Prices (with Nicola Zaniboni), International Economic Review 2016.
Heterogeneous Firms, Quality, and Trade, Journal of International Economics 2015.
Local versus Producer Currency Pricing: Evidence from Disaggregated Data, International Economic Review 2012.
Goods and Services Price Inflation: Recent Behavior and Historical Relationship (with Richard Peach, and Robert Rich), Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Economic Policy Review, Vol 10(3), December 2004
Taking the Pulse of the Tech Sector: A Coincident Index of High-Tech Activity (with Bart Hobijn, and Kevin Stiroh), Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Current Issue in Economics and Finance, Vol 9(10), Oct 2003
Working Papers
Are AI Jobs Driving Up the Demand for STEM Education? Yes, but not for Women. (with Emmanouil Chatzikonstantinou and Olesia Savka), Georgetown University Qatar Working Paper (pdf)
Abstract: We combine data on degrees awarded across colleges and universities in the US with data on online job vacancies to study the impact of AI penetration in local labor markets on the demand for STEM education. We find that between 2014 and 2022 AI raised the demand for STEM in the US, overall and across all races. However, we also find that it raised the gender gap in STEM, as it raised the demand and number of degrees awarded for male-dominated STEM fields (e.g. engineering) by more than that of fields traditionally with a larger share of female students (e.g.health science). Finally, we find that for institutions with higher share of female faculty, the impact of AI on the STEM gender gap is attenuating.
The Convergence of Occupations: Evidence from Online Job Vacancies (with Emmanouil Chatzikonstantinou and Mohammed Shahmeer Ahmad), Georgetown University Qatar Working Paper (pdf)
Abstract: Recently, during further technological progress, we document reversals in wage inequality and labor mobility patterns across occupations. We argue that rapid technological progress over the past decade is transforming occupations and driving them closer together, leading to wage convergence and increased mobility. To study this, we introduce a novel measure of occupational distance based on job postings that allow us to represent each occupation as a vector of skills with corresponding weights that evolve over time and space.
We compute bilateral distances between occupations using similarity measures and find a steady decline in these distances, indicating occupational convergence. We show that this convergence has led to a decline in wage inequality across occupations and increased labor mobility. Furthermore, we find that occupations that have undergone greater transformation—measured as self-distance over time—exhibit higher wage growth and larger reductions in within-occupation inequality. The proposed methodology offers a versatile framework applicable to other groups, such as firms, cities, or industries, and enables network analysis for deeper insights into workforce dynamics.
Learning by AI: The Impact of AI Hiring on Chinese Exporters (with Chuan He, Zheming Liang, and Mingzhi Xu), Georgetown University Qatar Working Paper (pdf)
Abstract: Artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping how firms read the market. Linking China’s universe of customs shipments to millions of online job ads, we track AI hiring in sales, marketing, and analytics to build a firm-level proxy for non-production AI and map its exposure across products within firms. To structure our analysis, we introduce a model in which firms confront asymmetric information about heterogeneous consumer preferences and show that AI mitigates these frictions by sharpening firms’ ability to learn demand patterns across markets. The model predicts—and the data confirm—that AI-intensive firms fine-tune their product mix and prices with greater precision: they are more likely to export, expand their product lines, and enter new markets. Crucially, this refinement appears as narrower price dispersion but wider quantity dispersion across destinations— effects strongest for differentiated goods, larger firms, and sales to high-income economies. Together, the evidence shows that AI eases demand-side information frictions, allowing firms to optimize their global reach strategies.
Did the advent of AI offset the far-right? Evidence from US’ Elections (with Carlos Feliper Balcazar, Emmanouil Chatzikonstantinou, and Andreas Kern), Georgetown University Qatar Working Paper (draft coming soon)
Abstract: What are the political consequences of AI adoption? Despite growing interest, little re- search has investigated the electoral implications of greater AI adoption. This paper examines this question through the lens of labor market dynamics, exploring how AI-induced disruptions shape voter behavior. While AI adoption can drive economic growth and job creation, it also generates uncertainty, particularly in regions where labor market tightness is low, leading to heightened voter anxiety over job security and wages. We argue that this economic anxiety makes voters more likely to support liberal parties advocating for stronger social safety nets and labor protections. Using a novel dataset that measures AI intensity—measured as the share of online job postings requiring AI-related skills—we analyze how AI-driven changes in lo- cal labor markets influenced voting patterns in the last three U.S. presidential elections (2016, 2020, and 2024). Our findings contribute to understanding AI as not just an economic force but also a political one, shaping electoral outcomes through labor markets.
Regional (GCC) Papers
The Case for Relaunching the Gulf Monetary Union (pdf)
Abstract: Despite previous setbacks, conditions are now favorable for the Gulf Cooperation Council to complete the Gulf Monetary Union. This memo argues that economic growth, regional coordination, and shared security challenges create a historic opportunity to relaunch the monetary union initiative. A single currency would not only deepen economic integration but also bolster the Gulf’s political influence amid evolving global dynamics. The risks of acting individually — including renewed fragmentation and diminished regional stability — outweigh the costs of ceding some political autonomy. The GCC must prioritize collective action, recognizing that greater unity will enhance both their resilience and global standing.
A Grocery Price Index for GCC Countries (pdf)
Abstract: A new price index for groceries is introduced for each of the six GCC countries. The index – drawing upon prices of grocery items sold by hypermarkets in the GCC across multiple locations – provides monthly measures for the period March 2022 and October 2024. To construct the six indexes data on prices posted online by retailers for all items across eight product categories are collected each month. The constructed indexes suggest that grocery prices have been the highest in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain (10% growth over the period) and lowest in Qatar (4% growth), but year-over-year grocery inflation is converging to below 2%.
A Study of Qatar’s Airfare Cost Competitiveness (pdf)
Abstract: This paper evaluates Qatar’s airfare cost competitiveness as part of its tourism-driven economic diversification strategy. By analyzing 100 million airfares across 157 destinations between February 2023 and October 2024, the study compares point-to-point and transit flights through Doha. Results highlight a significant airfare premium for point-to-point travel to Qatar, which is 39% higher on average compared to Dubai, limiting Qatar's attractiveness as a destination. However, Doha has a competitive edge in transit flights, which are 8.1% cheaper on average than those through Dubai. A competitive stopover program is proposed to leverage transit traffic, boost tourism, and drive economic growth, inspired by successful examples in Istanbul, Dubai, and Panama City.
The Blockade Against Qatar: A Blessing in Disguise? (with Rafia AlJassim and Khalique Gharatkar), Journal of Arabian Studies, vol 11, September 2021
The Gulf Monetary Union, in the Political Economy of the Persian Gulf (edited by Mehran Kamrava; Columbia University/Herst Press), 2012 (pdf)