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Research Interest
Asset pricing, Macro-finance models, Macroeconomics, DSGE modeling
Published Papers
Asset Pricing with Costly and Delayed Firm Entry, with Lorant Kaszab and Katrin Rabitsch, Macroeconomic Dynamics (2023) (wp version)
Asset Pricing with Free Entry and Exit of Firms, with Lorant Kaszab and Katrin Rabitsch, Economics Letters (2022)
Interest Rate Rules and Inflation Risks in a Macro-Finance Model , with Roman Horvath and Lorant Kaszab, Scottish Journal of Political Economy (2021)
Fiscal Policy and the Nominal Term Premium , with Roman Horvath and Lorant Kazsab, Journal of Money Credit and Banking (2021), replications files, paper
Equity Premium and Monetary Policy in a Model with Limited Asset Market Participation, with Roman Horvath and Lorant Kazsab, Economic Modelling (2021)
The Determinants of Fiscal Multipliers Revisited , with Katrin Rabitsch, Lorant Kaszab and Roman Horvath, Journal of Macroeconomics (2020)
Survey of Research on Financial Sector Modeling within DSGE Models: What Central Banks Can Learn from It, with F. Brazdik and M. Hlavacek, Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, 2012
Work in Progress
Maršál and Perkowski. 2025. "Generative AI as Routine-Biased Technical Change? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Central Banking." Under review. Available online at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5228176
Earlier version: The impact of Generative AI on productivity in central banking: Evidence from the National Bank of Slovakia with Patryk Perkowski
short video summary
Abstract
We report the results of a field experiment at the National Bank of Slovakia that examined the productivity impacts of generative AI in central banking. We randomized employees of the central bank to complete workplace tasks with and without the use of generative AI. We find that access to generative AI leads to large productivity gains, both in terms of quality of work and also efficiency measured in time. We find that the positive productivity benefits of generative AI are found throughout the distribution of participants. Moreover, generative AI has positive productivity impacts not only for the majority of generalist tasks, but also specialist tasks which require subject-matter expertise. While generative AI enhances the performance of all employees, its impacts are uneven. Employees who initially performed at lower levels experienced the most significant improvements in work quality, indicating that AI can help close performance gaps and elevate lower performers to the level of their higher-performing peers. In this way, generative AI has an equalizing effect on the quality of work. However, in terms of time efficiency, the benefits are not as evenly distributed. High-performing employees, already completing tasks faster, disproportionately benefit from the time-saving advantages of AI, thereby widening the gap in efficiency between top and lower performers. This suggests that while generative AI reduces disparities in work quality, it introduces inequalities in time efficiency by enabling the fastest workers to further accelerate their productivity. We conclude by discussing the implications of these findings for the adoption of generative AI in central banking and the broader context of skill-biased technological change.
Gen AI improves productivity of all employees but helps lower performing employees more (narrowing the distribution).
Gen AI makes all employees faster but higher performing employees benefit more (widening the distribution).
Working Papers
Generative AI at work: Survey evidence from three Central Banks, with Patryk Perkowski, September 2024, Under review.
From Linear to Nonlinear: Rethinking Inflation Dynamics in the Calvo Pricing Mechanism, with Katrin Rabitsch, September 2023. Previous (and very different) versions of this work have been circulated under the titles 'Undesired Consequences of Calvo Pricing in a Nonlinear World' and 'Trend inflation meets macro-finance: the puzzling behavior of price dispersion', NBS Working paper 6/2019, or WU Economics Working Paper #304, 2020.
Undesired Consequences of Calvo Pricing in a Nonlinear World, with Katrin Rabitsch and Lorant Kaszab, Earlier version circulated as 'Trend inflation meets macro-finance: the puzzling behavior of price dispersion', NBS Working paper 6/2019., online appendix, replication files
Various versions of the paper were at: ICMAIF 2022 in Rethymno; ECOS 2021 in Brno; CEF 2019 in Ottawa; EconMod 2019, Portugal; National Bank of Slovakia research seminar, 2019; Czech Economic Society and Slovak Economic Association Meeting, 2019, Brno; 4th CESEEnet research workshop, Vienna, 2019; DSGE Workshop at National Bank of Ukraine, 2018; WU seminar presentation, 2019
Government Spending and Term Structure of Interest Rates , with Lorant Kaszab and Roman Horvath
Various versions of the paper were presented at: SED 2018, CEF 2018, EconMod 2018, 9th RCEA Macro-Money-Finance Workshop Waterloo, MMF 2016 Bath UK, World Finance Conference NYC, National Bank of Lithuania July 2016 (invited), International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance, Crete, 2016, Young Economist's Meeting, Brno 2016, VI Workshop on Institutions, Individual Behavior and Economic Outcomes in Alghero 2015, Slovak Economic Association Meeting in Kosice 2015, Research Seminar at NBS, 11th International conference “Challenges of Europe”, Croatia 2015
Yield Curve Dynamics and Fiscal Policy Shocks, with Adam Kucera and Evzen Kocenda
Explaining Bond and Equity Premium Puzzles Jointly in a DSGE Model, with Lorant Kaszab
[MNB WP 1/2015 ]
The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Small Open Economy
This is very much work in progress. The very first version is basically my MA thesis, [IES WP 2011], one attempt of brief digression comes with Roman Horvath [FinMap 2014]
Others
Costs and Benefits of Czech Economic Transformation: Macroeconomic Approach (with Adam Kucera), Europolity . 2015, Vol. 9 Issue 1, p113-135. 23p.
Reviewer
Economic Inquiry
Journal of Economic Policy Reform
Czech Journal of Economics and Finance
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