Papers
[39] Aguiar-Conraria, L.; M. M. F. Martins; M. J. Soares. 2023. The Phillips Curve at 65: time for time and frequency. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, forthcoming. (Web Appendix)
[38] M.O. Ojo, L. Aguiar-Conraria, M. J. Soares. 2023. The Performance of OECD's Composite Leading Indicator. International Journal of Finance and Economics, forthcoming.
[37] Aguiar-Conraria, L., Conceição, G., Soares, M.J. 2022. How Far is Gas from becoming a Global Commodity? Energy Journal, 2022, 43(4), pp. 179–198. https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.43.4.lagu
[36] Alexandre, J.C.; Aguiar-Conraria, L. 2021. Opinion expression on hazing: has the Spiral of Silence reached the Portuguese higher education? Journal of Further and Higher Education, 45(10), pp. 1325–1341. https://doi.org/10.1080/0309877X.2020.1860205
[35] Aguiar-Conraria, L., Magalhães, P.C., Vanberg, C.A. 2020. What are the best quorum rules? A laboratory investigation. Public Choice, 185(1-2), pp. 215–231. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-019-00749-6.
[34] Aguiar-Conraria, L.; Martins, M.M.F.; Soares, M.J. 2020. Okun's Law across time and frequencies. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 116, 103897. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2020.103897.
[33] Ojo, M.O.; Aguiar-Conraria, L.; Soares, M.J. 2020. A time–frequency analysis of the Canadian macroeconomy and the yield curve. Empirical Economics, 58(5), pp. 2333–2351. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-018-1580-y
[32] Aguiar-Conraria, L.; Magalhães, P.C.; Veiga, F.J. 2019. Transparency, Policy Outcomes, and Incumbent Support. Kyklos, 72(3), pp. 357–380. https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12203.
[31] Magalhães, P.C.; Aguiar-Conraria, L. 2019. Procedural Fairness, the Economy, and Support for Political Authorities. (Web Apendix.) Political Psychology, 40(1), pp. 165–181. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12500.
[30] Aguiar-Conraria, L.; Martins, M.M.F.; Soares, M.J. 2018. Estimating the Taylor rule in the time-frequency domain. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2018, 57, pp. 122–137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.05.008.
[29] Aguiar-Conraria, L.; Soares, M.J.; Sousa, R., (2018). California's carbon market and energy prices: A wavelet analysis. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 376(2126), 20170256. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2017.0256
[28] Aguiar-Conraria, L.; Brinca, P.; Gujónsson, H.V.; Soares, M.J., 2017. Business cycle synchronization across U.S. states. B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2017, 17(1). https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2015-0158
[27] Aguiar-Conraria, L.; Magalhães, P.C.; Vanberg, C.A., 2015. Experimental evidence that quorum rules discourage turnout and promote election boycotts. Experimental Economics, 2016, 19(4), pp. 886–909. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-015-9473-9.
[26] R. Sousa, L. Aguiar-Conraria, 2014. Energy and carbon prices: A comparison of interactions in the European Union emissions trading scheme and the Western climate initiative market. Carbon Management, 6(3-4): 129–140. https://doi.org/10.1080/17583004.2015.1097007.
[25] R. Sousa, L. Aguiar-Conraria, M.J. Soares, 2014. Carbon financial markets: A time–frequency analysis of CO2 prices, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 414: 118-127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2014.06.058.
[24] Aguiar-Conraria, L.; Rodrigues, T.M.; Soares, M.J. (2014). Oil Shocks and the Euro as an Optimum Currency Area. In: Gallegati, M., Semmler, W. (eds) Wavelet Applications in Economics and Finance. Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, vol 20. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-07061-2_7
[23] Inflation rate dynamics convergence within the Euro, 2014, In: , et al. Computational Science and Its Applications – ICCSA 2014. ICCSA 2014. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 8579. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09144-0_10. (Joint with Maria Joana Soares)
[22] The Continuous Wavelet Transform: moving beyond uni- and bivariate analysis, 2014, Journal of Economic Surveys, 28: 344-375 doi: 10.1111/joes.12012. (Joint with Maria Joana Soares) The working-paper version circulated with a different title: The Continuous Wavelet Transform: A Primer, NIPE - WP 16 / 2011
[21] Aguiar-Conraria, L.; Magalhães, P.C.; Soares, M.J. 2013. The nationalization of electoral cycles in the United States: a wavelet analysis. (Web Appendix.) Public Choice, 156, 387–408. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-012-0052-8.
[20] Convergence of Economic Sentiment Cycles in the Euro Area: a time-frequency analysis, 2013, Journal of Common Market Studies, 51: 377-398, doi: 10.1111/j.1468-5965.2012.02315.x. (Joint with Manuel M. F. Martins and Maria Joana Soares)
[19] Forecasting Spanish Elections, 2012, International Journal of Forecasting 28 (4), pp. 769–776, doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.04.007.(Joint with Pedro Magalhães and Michael S. Lewis-Beck)
[18] Cycles in Politics: Wavelet Analysis of Political Time-Series, Web Appendix, 2012, The American Journal of Political Science, 56 (2), pp. 500-518, doi: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00566.x (Joint with Pedro C. Magalhães and Maria Joana Soares)
[17] The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies, 2012, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 36(12): 1950-70, doi: 10.1016/j.jedc.2012.05.008. (Joint with Manuel M. F. Martins and Maria Joana Soares)
[16] O Euro e o crescimento da economia portuguesa: uma análise contrafactual, 2012, Análise Social, 203, xlvii (2.º), 298-321. (Joint with Fernando Alexandre e Manuel Pinho)
[15] OPEC's Oil Exporting Strategy and Macroeconomic (In)Stability, 2012, Energy Economics, 34(1), pp. 132-136 doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2011.03.014. (Joint with Yi Wen)
[14] Foreign Direct Investment and Home Country Political Risk: The Case of Brazil, 2012, Latin American Research Review, 47(2), 144-165. doi: 10.1353/lar.2012.0013. (Joint with Sandra Aguiar, Mohamed Azzim Gulamhussen and Pedro Magalhães)
[13] Business Cycle Synchronization and the Euro: a Wavelet Analysis, 2011, Journal of Macroeconomics, 33(3), doi: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2011.02.005, 477 - 489. (Joint with Maria Joana Soares)
[12] Oil and the Macroeconomy: using wavelets to analyze old issues, 2011, Empirical Economics, 40(3), doi: 10.1007/s00181-010-0371-x, pp 645 - 655. (Joint with Maria Joana Soares)
[11] How quorum rules distort referendum outcomes: evidence from a pivotal voter model, 2010, European Journal of Political Economy, 26, pp. 541-557, doi: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2010.03.004. (Joint with Pedro Magalhães)
[10] Referendum Design, Quorum Rules and Turnout, 2010, Public Choice, 144 (1-2), pp 63-81, doi: 10.1007/s11127-009-9504-1. (Joint with Pedro Magalhães)
[9] Growth, Centrism and Semi-Presidentialism: Forecasting the Portuguese General Elections, 2009, Electoral Studies, 28 (2), pp. 314-321, doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2009.03.004. (Joint with Pedro Magalhães)
[8] A Note on Oil Dependence and Economic Instability, 2008, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 12, doi: 10.1017/S1365100508070429, pp. 717 - 723. (Joint with Yi Wen)
[7] A Note on the Stability Properties of Goodwin's Predator-Prey Model, 2008, Review of Radical Political Economics 40 (4), doi: 10.1177/0486613408324074, pp. 518-523.
[6] Using Wavelets to Decompose the Time-Frequency Effects of Monetary Policy, 2008, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 387, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2008.01.063 . (Joint with Maria Joana Soares and Nuno Azevedo)
[5] Understanding the Large Negative Impact of Large Oil Shocks, 2007, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 39(4), doi: 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2007.00051.x, 925–944.(Joint with Yi Wen)
[4] Capital Gains, 2006, International Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 2, 3-4, doi: 10.1111/j.1742-7363.2006.0039.x, pp.331–349. (Joint with Karl Shell)
[3] Capital Gains: Red and Blue Machines, 2005, Singapore Economic Review, 50(Special Issue No.1), doi: 10.1142/S021759080500213X, pp. 437-448. (Joint with Karl Shell)
[2] Public vs Private Schooling in an Endogenous Growth Model, 2005, Economics Bulletin, Vol. 9(10), pp. 1-6.
[1] The Adequacy of the Traditional Econometric Approach to Nonlinear Cycles, 2003, Notas Económicas, June.
Other Publications
As sondagens e os resultados eleitorais em Portugal, Boletim da Sociedade Portuguesa de Estatística, Primavera 2011, joint with Pedro Magalhães and Manuel Maria Pereira
Uma previsão dos resultados das eleições legislativas de 2009, IPSRISverbis, n. 8, Julho 2008, joint with Pedro Magalhães
Indeterminacy, Economic Fluctuations, Bubbles and Empirical Sunspots, PhD dissertation, Cornell University, 2005.
The Dynamical Decomposition of Growth and Cycles, Master thesis, Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Porto, 2000.