Research

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Political Economy

[7] The nationalization of electoral cycles in the United States: a wavelet analysis, Online Appendix, forthcoming, Public Choice (Joint with Pedro Magalhães and Maria Joana Soares) (Data and Codes) (JCR-IF: 0.887)

[6] Forecasting Spanish Elections, 2012, International Journal of Forecasting 28 (4), pp. 769–776, doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.04.007.(Joint with Pedro Magalhães and Michael S. Lewis-Beck) (JCR-IF: 1.424)

[5]  Cycles in Politics: Wavelet Analysis of Political Time-Series , Web Appendix, 2012, The American Journal of Political Science, 56 (2), pp. 500-518, doi: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00566.x  (Joint with Pedro C. Magalhães and Maria Joana Soares) (Data and codes) (JCR-IF: 2.811)

[4] Foreign Direct Investment and Home Country Political Risk: The Case of Brazil, 2012, Latin American Research Review, forthcoming (Joint with Sandra Aguiar, Mohamed Azzim Gulamhussen and Pedro Magalhães) (JCR-IF: 0.333)

[3] How quorum rules distort referendum outcomes: evidence from a pivotal voter model, 2010, European Journal of Political Economy, 26, pp. 541-557, doi: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2010.03.004. (Joint with Pedro Magalhães)  (JCR-IF: 1.132)

[2] Referendum Design, Quorum Rules and Turnout, 2010, Public Choice, 144 (1-2), pp 63-81, doi: 10.1007/s11127-009-9504-1. (Joint with Pedro Magalhães) (JCR-IF: 0.878)

[1] Growth, Centrism and Semi-Presidentialism: Forecasting the Portuguese General Elections2009, Electoral Studies, 28 (2), pp. 314-321, doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2009.03.004. (Joint with Pedro Magalhães) (JCR-IF: 0.887)
 
 
Macroeconomic Dynamics

[15] The Continuous Wavelet Transform: moving beyond uni- and bivariate analysis, 2013, Journal of Economic Surveys, doi: 10.1111/joes.12012. (Joint with Maria Joana Soares) (JCR-IF: 0.986) The working-paper version circulated with a different title: The Continuous Wavelet Transform: A Primer, NIPE - WP 16 / 2011

[14] The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, forthcoming, doi: 10.1016/j.jedc.2012.05.008. (Joint with Manuel M. F. Martins and Maria Joana Soares) (JCR-IF: 0.807)

[13] Convergence of Economic Sentiment Cycles in the Euro Area: a time-frequency analysisJournal of Common Market Studies, forthcoming, doi: 10.1111/j.1468-5965.2012.02315.x. (Joint with Manuel M. F. Martins and Maria Joana Soares) (JCR-IF: 1.603)

[12] O Euro e o crescimento da economia portuguesa: uma análise contrafactual, Análise Social, 203, xlvii (2.º), 298-321. (Joint with Fernando Alexandre e Manuel Pinho)

[11] OPEC's Oil Exporting Strategy and Macroeconomic (In)Stability, 2012, Energy Economics, 34(1), pp. 132-136 doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2011.03.014. (Joint with Yi Wen) (JCR-IF: 2.538)

[10] Business Cycle Synchronization and the Euro: a Wavelet Analysis, 2011, Journal of Macroeconomics, 33(3), doi: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2011.02.005, 477 - 489. (Joint with Maria Joana Soares) (JCR-IF: 0.589)

[9] Oil and the Macroeconomy: using wavelets to analyze old issues, 2011, Empirical Economics, 40(3), doi: 10.1007/s00181-010-0371-x, pp 645 - 655. (Joint with Maria Joana Soares) (JCR-IF: 0.614)

[8] A Note on Oil Dependence and Economic Instability2008, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 12, doi: 10.1017/S1365100508070429, pp. 717 - 723. (Joint with Yi Wen) (JCR-IF: 0.420)

[7] A Note on the Stability Properties of Goodwin's Predator-Prey Model2008, Review of Radical Political Economics 40 (4), doi: 10.1177/0486613408324074, pp. 518-523. (JCR-IF: 0.450)

[6] Using Wavelets to Decompose the Time-Frequency Effects of Monetary Policy2008, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 387, doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2008.01.063, pp. 2863–2878. (Joint with Maria Joana Soares and Nuno Azevedo) (JCR-IF: 1.676)

[5] Understanding the Large Negative Impact of Large Oil Shocks2007, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 39(4), doi: 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2007.00051.x, 925–944.(Joint with Yi Wen) (JCR-IF: 1.104)

[4] Capital Gains2006, International Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 2, 3-4, doi: 10.1111/j.1742-7363.2006.0039.x, pp.331–349. (Joint with Karl Shell) (JCR-IF: 0.275)

[3] Capital Gains: Red and Blue Machines2005, Singapore Economic Review, 50(Special Issue No.1), doi: 10.1142/S021759080500213X, pp. 437-448. (Joint with Karl Shell) (JCR-IF: 0.152)

[2] Public vs Private Schooling in an Endogenous Growth Model2005, Economics Bulletin, Vol. 9(10), pp. 1-6.

[1] The Adequacy of the Traditional Econometric Approach to Nonlinear Cyclesl2003, Notas Económicas, June.

 

Other Publications

As sondagens e os resultados eleitorais em Portugal, Boletim da Sociedade Portuguesa de Estatística, Primavera 2011, joint with Pedro Magalhães and Manuel Maria Pereira

Uma previsão dos resultados das eleições legislativas de 2009, IPSRISverbis, n. 8, Julho 2008, joint with Pedro Magalhães (working-paper version)

Indeterminacy, Economic Fluctuations, Bubbles and Empirical Sunspots, PhD dissertation, Cornell University, 2005.

The Dynamical Decomposition of Growth and Cycles, Master thesis, Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Porto, 2000.