Oral Argumentation: Blog Post #2
The second stage – presentation of arguments to the Court
The second stage – presentation of arguments to the Court
As I continue through the data collection phase of my research, I'm taking a moment to reflect on the process which has brought me here. The political environment of America is very different than it was several months ago; yet, in many ways, it is very similar – the underlying power structures which have allowed for the current political moment remain fundamentally unchanged. One of the most contentious of these structures, of course, remains the Supreme Court. While most decisions pass unnoticed, high-profile decisions the Court hands down immediately garner significant media attention. Popular liberal news outlets still lambast decisions from months ago, a rare staying power in a world of instantaneous news and constantly churning trend cycles. In the context of a politicized Court which is largely recognized as such, the relevance of Court decision-making analysis becomes apparent. My research ultimately aims to take aim at the validity of "originalism", tracing its prevalence from 1953 onwards.
Supreme Court Database
Working Personal Data Spreadsheet
The hurdles I have overcome thus far primarily relate to sifting through a massive array of past Court data in order to include only relevant case data. I systematically whittled 8500 rows of data on cases down to 6800, removing all which did not include written opinions, a lengthy manual process. After this, I utilized systematic random sampling to identify which cases I would hand-code. As of writing this post, I have hand-coded approximately half of my corpus. The case data I utilized comes from the Supreme Court Modern Database by the University of Washington School of Law, pictured to the left (top). How this data looks in my spreadsheet is also pictured to the left (bottom). Here, a highlighted row indicates one of my randomly sampled cases, while the dark line demarcates a case term.
My primary challenge that I currently face is the loss of my research mentor due to unexpected circumstances. While my mentor and I were supposed to meet to discuss my project previously, as far back as November of first semester, these meetings ultimately fell through. Thus, I face the loss of my mentor with no prior assistance from them. It may resultantly be more difficult for me to launch and properly utilize the R software on my own. If I find that I am unable to, I will resort to hand-coding more cases for a larger sample size, and utilizing only this data in my study.
When considering the full body of cases which I draw my random sample from, the average vote breakdown is approximately 7:2 (more specifically, 7.045778509:1.954221491). Because of this, not every case has a dissenting opinion – or any minority votes at all. Concurrences are even more rare. I have eschewed dissents and concurrences thus far in the data collection process, and will look at these separately. For now, my collected data looks at majority opinions from 1953 to 1993. Up until the 1980s, there is no mention of any of my identified "originalist" key phrases. While the absence of the term "originalism" itself is not surprising, what is more significant for my data collection is the lack of legal reasoning patterns mimicing originalism. However, without data expanded past the corpus to all cases, definitive data patterns cannot yet be drawn.
As I've continued through the research process, I have found that my interest in my topic has not waned. Once I begin, I find myself completely absorbed in the task at hand. Perhaps unsurprisingly, dealing with difficult data was my least favorite component of research. However, I find the hand coding process to be quite enjoyable. From a first glance, my alternative hypothesis appears to be supported, which excites me as I continue.