This paper examines how federal programs targeting individuals can generate economic spillovers for local governments. I examine the unintended consequences of social welfare programs on municipal bond markets, using county-level variation in the rollout of a federal program providing subsidized flood insurance to households. I find that municipalities with broader program access experience smaller declines in property tax revenue following floods. I then show that counties with greater access also face lower financing costs. The effects are most pronounced in high-risk and high-income areas. Overall, these results show how federal subsidies can produce positive local externalities, enhancing fiscal stability.
Presentations: Rice University (2023); Eastern Finance Association Conference (2024); Financial Management Association (2025)*
Note: * denotes a presentation that is yet to occur.
Job Market Paper
Using a novel source of exogenous variation in borrowers’ structure driven by subsidy-induced consolidation in the agricultural sector, I show that as farms consolidate, large banks capture a greater share of deposits because large borrowers demand large loans, creating a comparative advantage for large banks. In response, large banks expand their branch networks and small bank mergers become more common, creating more concentrated local credit markets. The resulting structure reduces competition and reduces local deposit rates. These findings reveal how consolidation in the real economy can drive structural change within the banking sector and affect credit pricing.
With Alex Butler, Alan Crane and Erik Mayer
The intergenerational transfer of credit histories through authorized user (AU) status affects credit outcomes. About 10-15% of young adults benefit from AU status each year, gaining credit histories that pre-date their own financial activity. Using variation in the age at which individuals are added as AUs, we identify substantial gains to AU status: credit scores rise by 22-33 points, and access to credit cards and credit in broader markets increases. However, high-risk AU borrowers are more likely to default than others with similar credit scores, suggesting that AU histories inflate scores and reinforce inequality in credit access.