IBDP 1
IBDP-1 (3).pdfTo what extent can the Cold War be said to have been over by 31st December 1989?
To what extent can the Cold War be said to have been over by 31st December 1989?
While it seemed that the Cold War was reaching its end (with the agreements between the superpowers) in the late 1970s, much of the progress was severed by the heavily miscalculated Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and agreements between the superpowers allowed Brezhnev the right to solidify the Warsaw Pact. The entrance of Gorbachev undid these developments, and improving relations with the West meant that despite the crash of the Soviet Union taking place in 1991, one could easily ascertain that the Cold War had ended in the late 1980s due to the ending of Russian involvement in Eastern Europe, the return of summit diplomacy and political and socio-economic reforms within the Soviet Union.
While it seemed that the Cold War was reaching its end (with the agreements between the superpowers) in the late 1970s, much of the progress was severed by the heavily miscalculated Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and agreements between the superpowers allowed Brezhnev the right to solidify the Warsaw Pact. The entrance of Gorbachev undid these developments, and improving relations with the West meant that despite the crash of the Soviet Union taking place in 1991, one could easily ascertain that the Cold War had ended in the late 1980s due to the ending of Russian involvement in Eastern Europe, the return of summit diplomacy and political and socio-economic reforms within the Soviet Union.
Talking about 1989, the two incidents that come to mind are the ending of the unpopular Afghanistan intervention and more importantly, the gradual but short span secession of Eastern European countries from the USSR. Despite renewing the Warsaw Pact in 1985, Gorbachev took part in a strict form of non-intervention, one that fuelled the already present dissatisfaction with the communists and threatened the stability of apparatchiks in these countries. The final trigger point for the mass exodus from the Warsaw pact was that of Hungary: Worsening economic conditions led even hardline communist leaders to question the functioning of the local economy, and the appointment of the financially powerful Miklos Nemeth led the way for peaceful revolution (while the Soviets only left the country in 1990, agreements for the withdrawal of troops had already taken place by April 1989). This was accompanied by the political battles in the revolution in Poland, and with varying levels of peace and violence, such political and economic reforms were undertaken towards the end of the year in Czechoslovakia, Romania, and Bulgaria (the latter of which, in December 1989, had announced plans for elections in 1990). Similar dissent in Germany led to the appointment of reformist communist Egon Krenz in October, followed by the creation of a coalition government, in December, and while the dissolution of East Germany only officially took place in October 1990, the removal of travel restrictions (and the iconic fall of the Berlin Wall) took place on 9 November 1989, and the evident powerlessness of the Soviets/communists in this incident signaled the end of the Cold War to many.
Talking about 1989, the two incidents that come to mind are the ending of the unpopular Afghanistan intervention and more importantly, the gradual but short span secession of Eastern European countries from the USSR. Despite renewing the Warsaw Pact in 1985, Gorbachev took part in a strict form of non-intervention, one that fuelled the already present dissatisfaction with the communists and threatened the stability of apparatchiks in these countries. The final trigger point for the mass exodus from the Warsaw pact was that of Hungary: Worsening economic conditions led even hardline communist leaders to question the functioning of the local economy, and the appointment of the financially powerful Miklos Nemeth led the way for peaceful revolution (while the Soviets only left the country in 1990, agreements for the withdrawal of troops had already taken place by April 1989). This was accompanied by the political battles in the revolution in Poland, and with varying levels of peace and violence, such political and economic reforms were undertaken towards the end of the year in Czechoslovakia, Romania, and Bulgaria (the latter of which, in December 1989, had announced plans for elections in 1990). Similar dissent in Germany led to the appointment of reformist communist Egon Krenz in October, followed by the creation of a coalition government, in December, and while the dissolution of East Germany only officially took place in October 1990, the removal of travel restrictions (and the iconic fall of the Berlin Wall) took place on 9 November 1989, and the evident powerlessness of the Soviets/communists in this incident signaled the end of the Cold War to many.
One must remember that since both powers were almost completely opposed to each other in political, socioeconomic, and cultural ideology, and since neither power directly challenged each other militarily, most examples of summit diplomacy (1960 onwards) revolved around the limitation/reduction of (mainly nuclear) arms. The Cuban Missile Crisis, at the time seen as a gigantic failure for both sides and a career-ending one for Nikita Khrushchev, ended the dangerous policy of brinkmanship (and led to the official conception of “MAD”, which was rather an absence of policy than the existence of one). The establishment of a “hotline” between the White House and the Kremlin along with the signing of the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty began this new period of diplomacy between the superpowers, one that had largely disappeared following the Yalta and Potsdam conferences in 1945. Even if these had little effect in the real-life scenario (see figure 1.0), decade-long talks (SALT I and II) in the 1970s for example at least served as a reassurance to the public about the existence of diplomatic relations and a shared interest toward peace. It is also without much doubt that these discussions are what later laid the foundations for the groundbreaking friendship between Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev, and while the first Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I) was only signed in 1991, the global number of nuclear stockpiles already saw a consistent decline since 1986 (as can be seen below). Also, hindsight shows us that the so-called “nuclear arms race” (in itself a key factor in East-West diplomacy), while being a major source of anxiety for most around the world, ended up acting as more of a “safety valve” rather than an imminent threat to either superpower.
One must remember that since both powers were almost completely opposed to each other in political, socioeconomic, and cultural ideology, and since neither power directly challenged each other militarily, most examples of summit diplomacy (1960 onwards) revolved around the limitation/reduction of (mainly nuclear) arms. The Cuban Missile Crisis, at the time seen as a gigantic failure for both sides and a career-ending one for Nikita Khrushchev, ended the dangerous policy of brinkmanship (and led to the official conception of “MAD”, which was rather an absence of policy than the existence of one). The establishment of a “hotline” between the White House and the Kremlin along with the signing of the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty began this new period of diplomacy between the superpowers, one that had largely disappeared following the Yalta and Potsdam conferences in 1945. Even if these had little effect in the real-life scenario (see figure 1.0), decade-long talks (SALT I and II) in the 1970s for example at least served as a reassurance to the public about the existence of diplomatic relations and a shared interest toward peace. It is also without much doubt that these discussions are what later laid the foundations for the groundbreaking friendship between Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev, and while the first Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I) was only signed in 1991, the global number of nuclear stockpiles already saw a consistent decline since 1986 (as can be seen below). Also, hindsight shows us that the so-called “nuclear arms race” (in itself a key factor in East-West diplomacy), while being a major source of anxiety for most around the world, ended up acting as more of a “safety valve” rather than an imminent threat to either superpower.
More important to the ending of the Cold War, rather than the onset of diplomacy, was the political and socio-economic situation of the USSR, both before and after the appointment of Mikhail Gorbachev. Following the chaos after the death of Stalin and the heavily adventurous policy swings of Khrushchev, the leadership of Brezhnev, notable for its gerontocratic “stability of cadres (higher-level party members), had brought upon a 20-year economic “Era of Stagnation”, while the de-Stalinisation by Khrushchev of political and sociocultural control was somewhat reversed during this period. More so, Marxism had already proven itself as a failed ideology of historical change, with the Western powers being much more financially stable, and the well-known Marxist prediction of capitalists fighting each other had not materialized. If compared to the situation of China before their reforms under Deng Xiaoping, Gorbachev had a much tougher task in front of him for three primary reasons: He did not yield the same political power and respect as Deng, and the Chinese were already longing for economic change in a much more failing social welfare system, and the Soviets had a higher influence in their agricultural sector. Yet, one must blame Gorbachev for having attempted to take drastic measures in both economic and political sectors. While both leaders saw these reforms as integral to maintain the state, Deng undertook a more planned, gradual, and systematic approach, while for Gorbachev, such reforms were already pre-decided (as part of his election campaign). Nevertheless, neutrals must credit Gorbachev for being one of the only leaders in world history to have actively ended a conflict by destroying his own state, and despite the Soviet Union only falling in 1991, it is easy to see how the superpower rivalry had ended much earlier than 1989.
More important to the ending of the Cold War, rather than the onset of diplomacy, was the political and socio-economic situation of the USSR, both before and after the appointment of Mikhail Gorbachev. Following the chaos after the death of Stalin and the heavily adventurous policy swings of Khrushchev, the leadership of Brezhnev, notable for its gerontocratic “stability of cadres (higher-level party members), had brought upon a 20-year economic “Era of Stagnation”, while the de-Stalinisation by Khrushchev of political and sociocultural control was somewhat reversed during this period. More so, Marxism had already proven itself as a failed ideology of historical change, with the Western powers being much more financially stable, and the well-known Marxist prediction of capitalists fighting each other had not materialized. If compared to the situation of China before their reforms under Deng Xiaoping, Gorbachev had a much tougher task in front of him for three primary reasons: He did not yield the same political power and respect as Deng, and the Chinese were already longing for economic change in a much more failing social welfare system, and the Soviets had a higher influence in their agricultural sector. Yet, one must blame Gorbachev for having attempted to take drastic measures in both economic and political sectors. While both leaders saw these reforms as integral to maintain the state, Deng undertook a more planned, gradual, and systematic approach, while for Gorbachev, such reforms were already pre-decided (as part of his election campaign). Nevertheless, neutrals must credit Gorbachev for being one of the only leaders in world history to have actively ended a conflict by destroying his own state, and despite the Soviet Union only falling in 1991, it is easy to see how the superpower rivalry had ended much earlier than 1989.
As predicted by the famous Keenan telegram (among others), the Soviet Union would go on to collapse if not allowed to expand. While this prediction is obviously one-dimensional given the other points considered in this essay (e.g. the slight reconciliation between the superpowers and the economic failures of the Marxist state), it highlights one of the most noticeable failures of the Soviet Union, which resulted in the redrawing of borders in Eastern Europe and Asia. Much of this (except the unification of Germany), of course, took place in 1991, although as we can see above, the seeds for such change were laid well before the date of 31 December 1989.
As predicted by the famous Keenan telegram (among others), the Soviet Union would go on to collapse if not allowed to expand. While this prediction is obviously one-dimensional given the other points considered in this essay (e.g. the slight reconciliation between the superpowers and the economic failures of the Marxist state), it highlights one of the most noticeable failures of the Soviet Union, which resulted in the redrawing of borders in Eastern Europe and Asia. Much of this (except the unification of Germany), of course, took place in 1991, although as we can see above, the seeds for such change were laid well before the date of 31 December 1989.
Pavan Radhakrishnan
Pavan Radhakrishnan
IBDP #1
IBDP #1
Bibliographies & References:
Bibliographies & References:
- Gray, Colin S. War, Peace and International Relations: an Introduction to Strategic History. Routledge, 2007.
- Kristensen, Hans M, and Matt Korda. “Status of World Nuclear Forces.” Federation Of American Scientists, fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/.
- Lynch, Allen C. “Deng's and Gorbachev's Reform Strategies Compared.” Russia in Global Affairs, eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/dengs-and-gorbachevs-reform-strategies-compared/.
- Mamaux, Alexis. The Cold War: Superpower Tensions and Rivalries. Oxford University Press, 2015.
- Pike, John. “Military.” Brezhnev - Stability of Cadres, www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/brezhnev-stability-of-cadres.htm.
- “Predictions of the Collapse of the Soviet Union.” Edited by Polly Tunnel, Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 27 Oct. 2020, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_of_the_collapse_of_the_Soviet_Union.
- Roser, Max, and Mohamed Nagdy. “Nuclear Weapons.” Our World in Data, 6 Aug. 2013, ourworldindata.org/nuclear-weapons.
Numerous Institutions Announce Effective COVID-19 Vaccines Being Produced.
Numerous Institutions Announce Effective COVID-19 Vaccines Being Produced.
As a result of the deadly Corona virus, scientists have been working hard to create a vaccine that can help combat this pandemic. Multiple establishments have announced the production of effective vaccines, however only 2 vaccines have been officially approved. Sputnik-V, developed by the Gamaleya Research institute in Moscow. Russia was one of the first countries to concoct the world’s first coronavirus vaccine on the 11th of August. Russia has declared that the vaccine is 92% effective in protecting people from covid-19.
As a result of the deadly Corona virus, scientists have been working hard to create a vaccine that can help combat this pandemic. Multiple establishments have announced the production of effective vaccines, however only 2 vaccines have been officially approved. Sputnik-V, developed by the Gamaleya Research institute in Moscow. Russia was one of the first countries to concoct the world’s first coronavirus vaccine on the 11th of August. Russia has declared that the vaccine is 92% effective in protecting people from covid-19.
Although Sputnik-V still hasn’t completed its phase 3 trials, Russia has decided to test the vaccine in India as well. The Indian Central Drugs Standard Control Organisation’s Drug Controller General (DCGI) has already permitted these tests and will be experimenting on 100 volunteers by injecting them with this vaccine. The second vaccine, also from Russia, is called EpiVacCorona. This vaccine has also been granted regulatory approval and is yet to enter its phase three trials.
Although Sputnik-V still hasn’t completed its phase 3 trials, Russia has decided to test the vaccine in India as well. The Indian Central Drugs Standard Control Organisation’s Drug Controller General (DCGI) has already permitted these tests and will be experimenting on 100 volunteers by injecting them with this vaccine. The second vaccine, also from Russia, is called EpiVacCorona. This vaccine has also been granted regulatory approval and is yet to enter its phase three trials.
On the other hand, these two vaccines aren’t the only two contenders in the race. This pandemic has brought along many unlikely partnerships; Operation Warp Speed, a public-private partnership by the US Government, focused on the development of a safe vaccine. OWS has selected three vaccines that could go through the phase three trials; Moderna’s mRNA-1273, University of Oxford and AstraZeneca’s AZD1222, and Pfizer and BioNTech's BNT162. In fact, AstraZeneca may be part of the big leagues, as not only is it allegedly 90% effective and much cheaper, it also doesn’t need to be stored in freezing temperatures, making distribution a much easier process. The US Government is also in contact with 18 other pharmaceutical companies, is trying to accelerate the speed and efficiency at which they produce these vaccines. Seeming to be in direct competition with Russia.
On the other hand, these two vaccines aren’t the only two contenders in the race. This pandemic has brought along many unlikely partnerships; Operation Warp Speed, a public-private partnership by the US Government, focused on the development of a safe vaccine. OWS has selected three vaccines that could go through the phase three trials; Moderna’s mRNA-1273, University of Oxford and AstraZeneca’s AZD1222, and Pfizer and BioNTech's BNT162. In fact, AstraZeneca may be part of the big leagues, as not only is it allegedly 90% effective and much cheaper, it also doesn’t need to be stored in freezing temperatures, making distribution a much easier process. The US Government is also in contact with 18 other pharmaceutical companies, is trying to accelerate the speed and efficiency at which they produce these vaccines. Seeming to be in direct competition with Russia.
Researchers toiled endlessly, day and night to find a solution to this lethal virus as soon as possible. But will we procure a solution to this pandemic by the end of this year? Or will we have to suffer the consequences of another perpetual lockdown?
Researchers toiled endlessly, day and night to find a solution to this lethal virus as soon as possible. But will we procure a solution to this pandemic by the end of this year? Or will we have to suffer the consequences of another perpetual lockdown?
Prisha Walia
Prisha Walia
IBDP #1
IBDP #1
Bibliographies & References:
Bibliographies & References:
The Future Of Our World.
The Future Of Our World.
The climate crisis has so far only been showing its trailer as far as 2020 goes, but like any movie, there's always more than one trailer...
The climate crisis has so far only been showing its trailer as far as 2020 goes, but like any movie, there's always more than one trailer...
Recently one of the largest recorded hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean has devastated Central America. The region went from a normal depression level to a Category 4 level disaster in less than a few days as Hurricane Eta killed dozens of people and displaced hundreds. While for another day of 2020 it seems like nothing to all of us stuck in our homes, to the people out there it means losing everything. Especially for the many subsistence farmers who have just given up on agriculture at this point and have moved elsewhere, and if our we and our world leaders don't act now these locals leaving their homes are just the trailers for the hundreds of millions of people about to be displaced in the form of mass migrations away from their normal lives due to the climate crisis.
Recently one of the largest recorded hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean has devastated Central America. The region went from a normal depression level to a Category 4 level disaster in less than a few days as Hurricane Eta killed dozens of people and displaced hundreds. While for another day of 2020 it seems like nothing to all of us stuck in our homes, to the people out there it means losing everything. Especially for the many subsistence farmers who have just given up on agriculture at this point and have moved elsewhere, and if our we and our world leaders don't act now these locals leaving their homes are just the trailers for the hundreds of millions of people about to be displaced in the form of mass migrations away from their normal lives due to the climate crisis.
And the trailer for us? For any of us who think that we are safe in our cities, knowing that the worst of climate change caused by us will first affects those that contribute the least to it, so it's only the matter of our lifetimes when we will be the ones evacuating our coasts and hills, it's called the "global" climate crisis for a reason you know?...
And the trailer for us? For any of us who think that we are safe in our cities, knowing that the worst of climate change caused by us will first affects those that contribute the least to it, so it's only the matter of our lifetimes when we will be the ones evacuating our coasts and hills, it's called the "global" climate crisis for a reason you know?...
I don't want to sound like someone preaching the apocalypse is coming, but this is all backed up by science, but not all is gloom and doom. Scientists have for long known that climate change can accelerate the causes and effects of these disasters. Yet they've only been able to point it at large disasters, or disasters in general, but never specific events, until now… An emerging field called Extreme Event Attribution allows scientists to predict future events with the greatest accuracy and precision. They can even feed into the climate models from the best-case to the worst-case scenarios and see changes in the local to the global environment.
I don't want to sound like someone preaching the apocalypse is coming, but this is all backed up by science, but not all is gloom and doom. Scientists have for long known that climate change can accelerate the causes and effects of these disasters. Yet they've only been able to point it at large disasters, or disasters in general, but never specific events, until now… An emerging field called Extreme Event Attribution allows scientists to predict future events with the greatest accuracy and precision. They can even feed into the climate models from the best-case to the worst-case scenarios and see changes in the local to the global environment.
Not only helping us as a race in the form of a key tool in surviving extreme events but also helping us understand a world we can prevent future generations from living, whether it is using your electricity less, growing plants, being plastic-conscious, buying eco-friendly items, going on a plant-based diet, everything matters. And if that doesn't motivate you, here's a little piece of advice from a fellow pandemic survivor: no one should have to relive 2020 ever again!
Not only helping us as a race in the form of a key tool in surviving extreme events but also helping us understand a world we can prevent future generations from living, whether it is using your electricity less, growing plants, being plastic-conscious, buying eco-friendly items, going on a plant-based diet, everything matters. And if that doesn't motivate you, here's a little piece of advice from a fellow pandemic survivor: no one should have to relive 2020 ever again!
Sairaj Menon
Sairaj Menon
IBDP #1
IBDP #1
Bibliographies & References:
Bibliographies & References:
Scientists Can Now Prove That Climate Change Is Causing Natural Disasters https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBbPpRSewR4
Scientists Can Now Prove That Climate Change Is Causing Natural Disasters https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBbPpRSewR4
Scientists link record-breaking hurricane season to climate crisis https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/15/scientists-link-record-breaking-hurricane-season-to-climate-crisis
Scientists link record-breaking hurricane season to climate crisis https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/15/scientists-link-record-breaking-hurricane-season-to-climate-crisis