Research

Research Interests

Global climate change
Natural climate variability
Seasonal-to-decadal climate predictability
Earth System Modeling
Weather-Climate Interface
Climate change and vector-borne disease
Climate Intervention (Geoengineering)

Professor Hurrell’s research centers on empirical and modeling studies and diagnostic analyses to better understand climate, climate variability, and climate change, with an emphasis on the mechanisms, predictability, and impacts of leading patterns of climate variability. He is especially interested in naturally occurring variations in climate on decadal timescales, the predictability of those variations, and how they interact with anthropogenic climate change to shape regional climate. His recent research has increasingly explored the consequences of this interplay, including how low-frequency patterns of ocean variability influence regional climate and severe weather, how severe convective weather may change in a warmer climate, and how climate variability and change affect human health, including the transmission and geographic risk of vector-borne diseases.

The indisputable evidence of global warming, and the knowledge that surface temperatures will continue to rise over the next several decades under any plausible emissions scenario, are now important factors in the planning of governments, businesses, and socioeconomic sectors for which weather and climate sensitivity and vulnerability are high. On timescales of a few years to a few decades, however, regional and seasonal variations in weather and climate—and their corresponding impacts—will continue to be strongly influenced by natural variability superimposed on long-term anthropogenic climate change. Decision makers in diverse arenas therefore need to understand the extent to which observed climate conditions and extreme events reflect natural variability, human-caused climate change, or an interaction between the two. A central challenge of climate science is to understand and predict such regional-scale climate variability and change, and its impacts, on timescales from seasons to decades.

Professor Hurrell also conducts research on the potential consequences of various climate intervention techniques (sometimes called geoengineering)—deliberate, large-scale interventions in the climate system intended to counter global warming or offset some of its effects. His research focuses particularly on understanding the physical climate response to such interventions, their effects on regional climate and extremes, and their potential environmental and societal risks and benefits. As the impacts of climate change become more severe and interest in climate intervention grows, rigorous research is needed to understand both what these approaches might accomplish and the risks and uncertainties they entail. To learn more, watch this series of videos created by our group and collaborators describing research on climate intervention for a general audience. To learn more, watch this series of videos created by our group and collaborators describing research on climate intervention for a general audience.