Research

Accepted Papers and Publications

Stalled Racial Progress and Japanese Trade in the 1970s and 1980s with Timothy Bond

Review of Economic Studies, 2023 [Link] [Unpublished Version]  

Abstract:  Many of the positive economic trends coming out of the Civil Rights Era for black men stagnated or reversed during the late 1970s and early 1980s. These changes were concurrent with a rapid rise in import competition from Japan. We assess the impact of this trade shock on racial disparities using commuting zone level variation in exposure. We find it decreased black manufacturing employment, labor force participation, and median earnings, and increased public assistance recipiency. However these manufacturing losses for blacks were offset by increased white manufacturing employment. This compositional shift appears to have been caused by skill upgrading in the manufacturing sector. Losses were concentrated among black high school dropouts and gains among college educated whites. We also see a shifting of manufacturing employment towards professionals, engineers, and college educated production workers. We find no evidence the heterogeneous effects of import competition can be explained by unionization, prejudice, or changes in spatial mismatch. Our results can explain 66-86% of the relative decrease in black manufacturing employment, 17-23% of the relative rise in black non-labor force participation, and 34-44% of the relative decline in black median male earnings from 1970-1990. 

Coverage in The Economist, Chicago Policy Review

Reducing the Burden of Mental Illness on the Criminal Justice System: Evidence from Light-Touch Outreach with Bill Evans and David Phillips

Journal of Urban Economics, 2025 [Link] [Unpublished Version]

Abstract:  One quarter of people in jail have a serious mental illness (SMI); we study a county in a multi-state area that screens all inmates to identify those with one. Immediately after jail exit, county staff attempt to contact and connect these individuals to a mental healthcare provider, making successful connections in one in four cases. As outreach began on a specific date and residents of neighboring counties are ineligible for outreach, we compare residents and non-residents exiting the same jail over time in a difference-in-differences design. When the program begins, 180-day recidivism rates fall by 12 percentage points more for eligible residents than for would-be-eligible non-residents. Measured effects at one year are consistent with a persistent impact over time. We also find suggestive evidence that recidivism effects are larger for people without a history of mental healthcare.

Skill-Biased Technical Change and Employment in U.S. Manufacturing [Updated 6/5/2025]

Accepted with minor revisions, Economic Inquiry.

Abstract:  I decompose employment changes by skill type into changes caused by output, labor supply, production task concentration, and labor-augmenting technology, using market equilibrium conditions within a constant elasticity of substitution production framework. I study manufacturing industries from 1990 to 2017 in two key periods: 1990-2007, during which the China shock occurred, and 2007-2017, during the Great Recession and subsequent recovery. From 1990 to 2007, I find that labor-augmenting technology, by reducing labor per unit of output, is the leading source of displacement overall. However, a shift toward high-skill tasks is even more important in displacing non-college workers, who represent a majority of employment. From 2007 to 2017, reductions in the scale of production lead to employment decreases, and further movement toward high-skill tasks continues to displace low-skill workers. In contrast to the earlier time period, labor-augmenting technology does not displace employment in aggregate in later years. In applications, I explore the impacts of import penetration from China and susceptibility to automation and offshoring. 

Working Papers

The Baby Boom and Black Economic Progress [Updated 11/03/2025] 

Abstract:  The Black-White earnings gap closed into the 1970s, but then widened as the Baby Boomers entered the labor market. I use cross-cohort variation in fertility rates to estimate the effect of the Baby Boom, which was 50% larger for Blacks than Whites, on racial disparities. This increased cohort size caused an increase in the lifetime Black-White median earnings gap by lowering the average Black rank on the earnings distribution. Had Black cohort size increased at the same rate as Whites, the Black Baby Boom generation would have had 14.7% higher life-cycle earnings, and the Black-White life-time earnings gap would have closed rather than widened. Using a state-level panel, I find that increased cohort sizes caused crowding-out in college markets and high-manufacturing, high-union labor markets, and increased congestion in traditionally low-education, low-earning, and Black occupations.

Statistical Discrimination and Optimal Mismatch in College Major Selection with Tim Bond, Sebastian Linde, and Kevin Mumford [Updated 8/15/2024]

Abstract:  We develop a model of college major selection in an environment where firms and students have incomplete information about the student’s aptitude. Students must choose from a continuum of majors which differ in their human capital production function and can act as a signal to the market. Whether black students choose more or less difficult majors than similar white students, and whether they receive a higher or lower return to major difficulty, depends on the extent to which employers statistically discriminate. We find strong evidence that statistical discrimination influences major choice using administrative data from several large universities and two nationally representative surveys. 

Therapy to Reduce Violence and Improve Institutional Safety During Incarceration with Bill Evans, Tyler Giles, and Rebecca Margolit-Chan [Updated 3/19/2025]

Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Human Resources.

Abstract:  We evaluate the impact of Step Up, a cognitive behavioral therapy program administered to inmates at the Lubbock County Detention Center in Lubbock, Texas. Step Up aims to address self-destructive thought and behavior patterns through a combination of group classes, one-on-one counseling, and a structured workbook. We compare individuals over time who enter the Step Up program to a group of eligible and interested nonparticipants in an unbalanced two-way fixed effects framework. Despite similarities in observable characteristics and initial behavior metrics, individuals who enter Step Up exhibit a 49% reduction in monthly behavioral incident rates compared to the untreated group, which is about an 8 percentage point decline. The typical participant spends about 3 months in the program, and we find evidence that the behavioral improvements persist after program completion.

Works in Progress

“Can Emergency Financial Assistance Prevent Financial Distress? Randomized Evidence from Funeral Assistance in Chicago”, with Jonathan Tebes. [AEA Registry Page] [Pre-Analysis Plan]

“Southern Lynchings and Children’s Educational Outcomes”, with Maxwell Bullard, Kalena Cortes and Kendall J. Kennedy. 

“Evaluating Lubbock County’s Behavioral Therapy Program to Reduce Violence Among Inmates”, with William N. Evans and Tyler Giles.  [AEA Registry Page] [Pre-Analysis Plan] 

“The Impact of Cash Transfers for Rapid Rehousing Clients”, with Adrienne Sabety and James X. Sullivan. [AEA Registry Page] [Pre-Analysis Plan]

“Evaluating the Impact of the Shelter Diversion Program on Homelessness Prevention and Long-term Stability”, with Rob Collinson. [AEA Registry Page] [Pre-Analysis Plan]

“A Randomized Controlled Trial on Permanent Supportive Housing for Individuals Exiting Prison”, with Mike Cassidy and William N. Evans. [AEA Registry Page] [Pre-Analysis Plan]

“The Effect of Recovery Housing on Patients’ Health, Housing, and Employment Outcomes”, with William N. Evans and Adrienne Sabety.