Papers

Stalled Racial Progress and Japanese Trade in the 1970s and 1980s (with Timothy N. Bond). Forthcoming, The Review of Economic Studies. [Updated 9/23/2021]  

Abstract:  Many of the positive economic trends coming out of the Civil Rights Era for black men stagnated or reversed during the late 1970s and early 1980s. These changes were concurrent with a rapid rise in import competition from Japan. We assess the impact of this trade shock on racial disparities using commuting zone level variation in exposure. We find it decreased black manufacturing employment, labor force participation, and median earnings, and increased public assistance recipiency. However these manufacturing losses for blacks were offset by increased white manufacturing employment. This compositional shift appears to have been caused by skill upgrading in the manufacturing sector. Losses were concentrated among black high school dropouts and gains among college educated whites. We also see a shifting of manufacturing employment towards professionals, engineers, and college educated production workers. We find no evidence the heterogeneous effects of import competition can be explained by unionization, prejudice, or changes in spatial mismatch. Our results can explain 66-86% of the relative decrease in black manufacturing employment, 17-23% of the relative rise in black non-labor force participation, and 34-44% of the relative decline in black median male earnings from 1970-1990. 

Coverage in The Economist, Chicago Policy Review

Reducing Re-arrests through Light Touch Mental Health Outreach (with William N. Evans and David C. Phillips) [Updated 11/30/2023]

Abstract:  One quarter of people in jail have a serious mental illness (SMI); we study a county in a multi-state area that screens all inmates to identify those with this condition. Immediately after jail exit, county staff attempt to contact and connect these individuals to a mental healthcare provider, making successful connections in one quarter of cases. As outreach began on a specific date and residents of neighboring counties are ineligible for outreach, we compare residents and non-residents exiting the same jail over time in a two-stage least-squares (2SLS) design. When the program begins, 180-day recidivism rates fall by 14 percentage points more for residents than for non-residents. Measured effects at one year are consistent with a growing impact over time. When focusing just on those who have been identified by the SMI screen, we find suggestive evidence that recidivism effects are larger for people without a history of mental healthcare.

Skill-Biased Technical Change and Employment in U.S. Manufacturing [Updated 6/8/2020]

Abstract:  I propose a new method to decompose employment changes by skill type into changes caused by output, labor supply, production task concentration, and labor-augmenting technology, using market equilibrium conditions within a constant elasticity of substitution production framework. I apply this method to manufacturing industries between 1990 and 2007, a period of steep employment declines for non-college workers. I find that labor-augmenting technology, by reducing labor per unit of output, is the leading source of displacement overall. However, a shift toward high-skill tasks is even more important in displacing non-college workers, who represent a majority of employment. In contrast, output changes have little influence on upskilling or aggregate job loss. In applications, I explore the impacts of import penetration from China and susceptibility to automation and offshoring. While these events contribute to job loss and restructuring, only offshoring is associated with some task upgrading, suggesting these mechanisms are not the primary drivers of this source of employment loss. 

“Statistical Discrimination and Optimal Mismatch in College Major Selection”, with Timothy N. Bond, Sebastian Linde, and Kevin J. Mumford. [Draft to be posted soon]

Works in Progress

“Southern Lynchings and Children’s Educational Outcomes”, with Kalena Cortes and Kendall J. Kennedy. 

“The Effect of Recovery Housing on Patients’ Health, Housing, and Employment Outcomes”, with William N. Evans and Adrienne Sabety.

“Evaluating Lubbock County’s Behavioral Therapy Program to Reduce Violence Among Inmates”, with William N. Evans and Tyler Giles.