"Covered Interest Parity: The long-run evidence" with Olivier Accominotti, Jason Cen and David Chambers
We study deviations from Covered Interest Parity (CIP) over one century of daily exchange rate and interest rate data (1921-2021) across a broad sample of currencies. Our main finding is that substantial CIP deviations have been the norm over the last century, except in the years preceding the Great Financial Crisis (2000-2006).
"The Great Depression as a Savings Glut" with Eric Monnet, September 2024, Journal of Economic History
New data covering 23 countries reveal that banking crises of the Great Depression coincided with a sharp international increase in deposits at savings institutions and life insurance. These findings provide new explanations of the fall in credit and aggregate demand in the 1930s.
"Public credit and the financial cycle" Reject and Resubmit at Review of Financial Studies
By drawing on central banks’ archives and statistical reports for thirteen major economies, I build the first dataset on total state loans to firms and households (i.e. public credit). The dataset is quarterly and covers the 1950-2020 period. I reveal that public credit is a key component of the financial cycle.
This article relies on a new dataset of end-of-month exchange rates quoted in 17 national financial centers (i.e., countries) over the 1900-1999 period. By measuring deviations from the Law of One Price in international currency markets, I put forward a new long-run measure of international financial integration at the currency level.