ONGOING RESEARCH

Global income inequality by 2050: Assessing the effects of redistribution, growth and climate change  (with Lucas Chancel, Philipp Bothe and Amory Gethin)

Abstract: This article investigates how national income convergence, government redistribution, and climate change will shape the global distribution of income until 2050. Despite ongoing convergence in national income, the global bottom 50% post-tax income share only marginally rises from 10% to 12% under “business-as-usual”, while the top 1% share remains constant. Yet, modest national-level redistribution policies can raise the global bottom 50% share to up to 19%. Policies involving redistribution of pre-tax income are particularly effective in reducing global inequality. Climate change is set to exacerbate inequalities, potentially offsetting all convergence effects since 1980. 

Coverage: Liberation, Le Monde, La Tribune

Planetary Habitability, Global Convergence and Structural Transformation, 1970-2100 (with Lucas Chancel, Moritz Odersky, Thomas Piketty and Anmol Somanchi)

PUBLICATIONS

Climate Change and the Global Distribution of Wealth with Lucas Chancel, Philipp Bothe and Gregor Semieniuk, in Nature Climate Change, 2025.

Public support for carbon pricing policies and revenue recycling options: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the survey literature with Farah Mohammadzadeh Valencia, Anjali Ramakrishnan, Marlene Merchert, Jan C. Minx and Jan C. Steckel, in npj Climate Action, 2024.

POLICY WORK

Climate Inequality Report 2025 with Lucas Chancel, Philipp Bothe, Stella Muti and Pol Villaverde

Coverage: The Indian Express, Down To Earth,  Bloomberg Green, Forbes, Kashmir Times,  Alternatives Economiques, The European Correspondent

Wachstum und Ungleichheit with Moritz Odersky, in Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte, 2025