ONGOING RESEARCH

Global income inequality by 2050: Assessing the effects of redistribution, growth and climate change  (with Lucas Chancel, Philipp Bothe and Amory Gethin)

Abstract: This article investigates how national income convergence, government redistribution, and climate change will shape the global distribution of income until 2050. Despite ongoing convergence in national income, the global bottom 50% post-tax income share only marginally rises from 10% to 12% under “business-as-usual”, while the top 1% share remains constant. Yet, modest national-level redistribution policies can raise the global bottom 50% share to up to 19%. Policies involving redistribution of pre-tax income are particularly effective in reducing global inequality. Climate change is set to exacerbate inequalities, potentially offsetting all convergence effects since 1980. 

Coverage: Liberation, Le Monde, La Tribune

Planetary Habitability, Global Convergence and Structural Transformation, 1970-2100 (with Lucas Chancel, Moritz Odersky, Thomas Piketty and Anmol Somanchi)

Abstract: We analyze under what conditions global income convergence by 2100 is compatible with limiting temperature rise to below 2°C. To this end, we construct a new historical multi-sector global database (57 countries and regions, 1970–2025) and build an input-output projection model to 2100. Unlike standard climate-economy models, we examine sectoral reallocation toward immaterial sectors as a climate determinant, rather than treating it as a byproduct of development. In our benchmark scenario, all countries reach 60k euros (2025 PPP) in per capita GDP in 2100, close to today’s richest-country levels. We find that this compatible with 2°C only under very strict conditions: a reduction of work hours, a consumption shift toward immaterial sectors, a major change in food habits, and a fast energy transition requiring massive low-carbon investment. The “Sustainable Convergence” scenario delivers higher comprehensive well-being (including valuations of time and planetary habitability) across all regions than “Productivist Convergence” or “Persistent Inequality” scenarios, both yielding a much larger global GDP but temperature rise beyond 4°C by 2100. Our main conclusion is that global between-country convergence within planetary boundaries requires major structural transformation and a decisive move toward sobriety: rapid energy transition alone will not suffice.

Equality and Development: A comparative & Historical Perspective (with Marie Andreescu et al.) 

Abstract: This paper uses extended series on income and wealth inequality from the World Inequality Database (WID) covering all world regions over the 1800-2025 period, together with new series on hourly productivity and human capital expenditure, to revisit the relationship between equality and development, with a much broader comparative and historical perspective than previous studies. Over the long-run, we find a strong positive association between equality and productivity. Our proposed interpretation is that the rise of inclusive “social-democratic” institutions (including extended access to human capital, public services and democratic participation) led both to more equality and higher productivity, particularly in Western and Nordic Europe. We discuss the implications for future sustainable development strategies.

PUBLICATIONS

Climate Change and the Global Distribution of Wealth with Lucas Chancel, Philipp Bothe and Gregor Semieniuk, in Nature Climate Change, 2025.

Public support for carbon pricing policies and revenue recycling options: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the survey literature with Farah Mohammadzadeh Valencia, Anjali Ramakrishnan, Marlene Merchert, Jan C. Minx and Jan C. Steckel, in npj Climate Action, 2024.

POLICY WORK

Climate Inequality Report 2025 with Lucas Chancel, Philipp Bothe, Stella Muti and Pol Villaverde

Coverage: The Indian Express, Down To Earth,  Bloomberg Green, Forbes, Kashmir Times,  Alternatives Economiques, The European Correspondent, AK Wien, Improof,  Surplus Magazin

Wachstum und Ungleichheit with Moritz Odersky, in Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte, 2025