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Climate Change and Rainfall in New Jersey
Climate Change and Rainfall in New Jersey
Since 1895, the average amount of precipitation has fluctuated from year to year, but the overall trend is upward - we're getting more rain! New Jersey is getting wetter, and climate change is a major reason why. While rainfall has always varied year to year, the long-term trend is a clear and steady increase in precipitation. Historically, New Jersey averaged about 46 inches of precipitation per year. But over the past century, that amount has risen by approximately 3.3 inches. More recently, between 2003 and 2022, the rate of increase has accelerated to about 8.1%. In some years, total statewide precipitation has approached nearly 65 inches, far above the historical average.
This trend is not just about more rain, but more extreme rainfall events. Two of New Jersey’s wettest years on record have occurred since 2010, and 9 of the top 10 years for one-day extreme rainfall events have happened since 1995. These intense storms are part of a broader pattern seen across the Northeastern U.S., which has experienced a 55% increase in heavy rainfall events since 1958, the fastest rise in the nation.
Climate change plays a major role in this shift. Since industrial times, global temperatures have increased by about 2.4°F. Warmer air holds more moisture, about 4% more for every 1°F rise, so storms today release more water, more quickly, increasing the risk of flooding. In New Jersey, annual rainfall is expected to rise by another 3 to 5 inches in the coming decades compared to 1981–2010 levels.
This increase in rainfall has real consequences: overwhelmed stormwater systems, flooded homes and streets, and damage to infrastructure. These changes are a clear signal that climate change is not a distant threat; it’s already here, reshaping our environment. Preparing for more frequent and extreme weather is not just important, it's essential!
More Data and Information (From the Rutgers New Jersey Weather Network)
The New Jersey annual precipitation for the 1991–2020 normals period is 47.56” compared to 46.36” for 1981–2010 normal. The monthly normals for the two periods are plotted alongside each other in Figure 1, while Figure 2 shows the monthly differences between the two time periods. There has been an increase in precipitation in 9 of the 12 months, with the biggest increase in August, while April shows the largest decrease in precipitation.
While NJ precipitation normals vary by region, primarily due to topography and proximity to the Atlantic, the trend towards more precipitation has occurred statewide.
Figure 1. New Jersey monthly total precipitation normals for the 1981–2010 and 1991–2020 periods.
Figure 2. Monthly differences in total precipitation normals between the 1981–2010 and 1991–2020 periods. Positive values indicate the more recent 30-year interval is wetter than the prior one.
Additional sources on the increase in rainfall in New Jersey:
https://dep.nj.gov/wp-content/uploads/climatechange/nj-rainfall-studies-summary.pdf
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