Title: Estimating Natural Disturbance Impacts on the Economic Value of Forests: The Case of a Category 5 Hurricane

Abstract :
We estimate the impact of Hurricane Michael, a Category 5 storm that struck the southeastern U.S. in 2018, on timberland transaction prices. Using parcel-level sales data and a difference-in-differences design, we define treatment with NOAA storm path data, USDA Forest Service field surveys, and remote sensing-based vegetation loss measures. Results show that exposed parcels lost 22–30% of their value and that heavily damaged tracts exhibited a surge in low-priced “cheap” sales. By contrast, parcels within the storm swath but without physical damage show no price effect, suggesting no change in landowner expectations of future hurricane risk. A complementary numerical analysis using local yield functions, stumpage prices, and field surveys confirms that physical damage alone can account for observed losses. Together, the evidence indicates that southeastern timberland markets respond to realized storm damages rather than shifts in disturbance expectations, underscoring regional heterogeneity in how climate shocks affect forestland values.