Research 

Working papers

Endogenous Ambiguity and Risk Premia in a Nonlinear Macro-Finance Model (2026, draft, slides) 

Previously circulated as "Model Uncertainty as Partial-Identification Problems: Application to Policy Promises during Crises"

I study how uncertainty about intermediary conditions and cash-flow prospects shapes investors’ beliefs and risk premia. I incorporate a novel belief-formation mechanism that endogenously disciplines uncertainty into a nonlinear general-equilibrium economy with intermediaries facing occasionally-binding constraints, where low aggregate capital reduces risk-bearing capacity and raises discount rates. Without observing capital or cash-flow prospects, ambiguity-averse intermediaries infer them from asset prices. I find that when constraints are slack, uncertainty about these fundamentals dominates risk premia. When constraints bind and depressed prices contradict cash-flow evidence, intermediaries infer lower capital, so compensation for reduced risk-bearing capacity dominates. These dynamics align with survey evidence.

A Risk-Based Liquidity Theory of International Currency (2026, draft, slides)

Revise and resubmit at Journal of Economic Theory

I develop an open-economy monetary theory with multiple currencies, in which the ranking of currencies as media-of-exchange in international trade is endogenously determined in decentralized bilateral meetings. The ranking is driven by the currencies' ability to hedge against counterparties' uninsured income shocks, maximizing trade gains. Supporting the theory, the data show that countries with procyclical local currency valuations settle more trades in United States dollar (USD). The calibrated model explains the global role of the USD as a vehicle currency, facilitating trades not directly involving the United States, and the euro’s role as a local medium of exchange in the Eurozone. Finally, flight-to-quality, driven by risk aversion, increases demand for the USD as the global medium of exchange, highlighting the welfare consequences of its dominance.

Dynamic Portfolio Choice under Nonlinear Dynamics, (2022, draft) 

This paper investigates a nonlinear dynamic portfolio choice of an investor endowed with recursive preferences. I estimate a quadratic autoregressive (QAR) process for the evolution of the investment opportunity set, including the aggregate vacancy rate as a return predictor. Jointly incorporating multivariate nonlinear dynamics in conditional means and stochastic volatility substantially improves standard measures of portfolio performance relative to using a linear time series model: the cumulative wealth path between 1972 and 2014 by 93%, Sharpe ratio by 20%, and utility-based economic welfare by 48%. Methodologically, I derive an analytical approximation of the optimal dynamic portfolio in a multivariate nonlinear environment embedded in the QAR model.

Publications

The First Arrow Hitting the Currency Target: A Long-Run Risk Perspective, with Takashi Kano (2017, Link),  Journal of International Money and Finance, 74: 337-352. 

This paper reconsiders the successful currency outcome of the first arrow of Abenomics. The Japanese yen depreciation against the U.S. dollar after the introduction of the first arrow co-moves tightly with long-term yield differentials between Japan and the United States. The estimated term structure of the sensitivity of the currency return of the Japanese yen to the two-country interest rate differential indeed shifts up and becomes steeper after the onset of Abenomics. To explain this structural change in the term structure of the Fama regression coefficient, we employ a long-run risk model endowed with real and nominal conditional volatilities as in Bansal and Shaliastovich (2013). Under a plausible calibration, the model replicates the structural change when nominal uncertainty dominates real uncertainty in the U.S. bond market. We conjecture that the arrow was shot off from the U.S. side, not the Japan side.

Working in Progress

Global Banks’ Subjective Beliefs and Systematic Debt Cycles in Emerging Economies, with  Chun-Che Chi 

Macroeconomic Dynamics with Trend Inflation under Diagnostic Expectations, with Donghoon Yoo  

Macro-Finance Resilience with Illiquid Capital Reallocations, with Tak-Yuen Wong