Vision statement:
As onshore infrastructure is now well developed, and societies are entering an era of aging populations and demographic decline, civil engineering research and practice will inevitably focus more on maintaining existing infrastructure. In Japan, up to 30% of expressways are now over 30 years old, while new expressway projects account for less than 3%. To move beyond the operation and maintenance of maturing infrastructure, a new frontier of research should shift toward offshore and space infrastructure development, where advancements in renewable energy, new business models, investment, and research funding are rapidly emerging. For example, Obayashi Corporation, which completed the world’s tallest free-standing tower, Tokyo Skytree, in 2012, is now pursuing future technologies for constructing a space elevator using carbon nanotube cables, connecting an earth port with an undersea tunnel by the year 2050. Civil Engineering will thus face greater challenges in constructing innovative infrastructure for the future.

On the other hand, natural disasters and climate change are issues we cannot overlook. A Japanese expert panel estimated that the probability of a Nankai Trough mega-earthquake off Japan’s Pacific coast within the next 30 years is 60%–90%. According to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), atmospheric carbon dioxide continues to rise steadily. Without large-scale reductions in carbon and greenhouse gas emissions, global warming of 1.5°C to 2°C is expected in the coming decades. As ocean temperatures rise, storms intensify, global precipitation increases, sea levels rise, and major flooding occurs, leading to greater risks and increased insurance payouts, with the possibility of simultaneous disasters.

Meanwhile, population growth in developing countries is intensifying pressure on the biosphere for water and food. If current trends in population growth, food production, industrialization, pollution, and resource depletion continue unchecked, the limits to growth will be reached within the next century. Accordingly, the seventeen SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals) call for urgent action by all nations. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the world has faced an urgent need for more efficient energy use, sustainable transportation, and improved healthcare.

Therefore, Civil Engineering is undergoing a drastic transformation, driven by diversifying demands for infrastructure development; growing needs for disaster prevention and mitigation, where redundancy, robustness, and resilience must serve as foundational principles; and the global push toward sustainable development goals and roadmaps. These paradigm shifts require Civil Engineers to engage with relatively new bodies of knowledge.

願景宣言：

近年來，陸域基礎建設已獲得充分發展，而我們正逐步邁入高齡化社會，人口持續減少，土木工程的研究與實務工作勢必將逐漸侷限於既有設施的維護。在日本，目前已有高達30%的高速公路使用年限超過30年，而新建高速公路專案僅占不到3%。為了超越成熟基礎設施的營運與維護層面，研究的新領域應轉向離岸與太空基礎設施的發展，其中再生能源、新商業模式，投資與研究資金正迅速興起。例如，於2012年完成世界最高獨立式塔樓「東京晴空塔」的大林組，現正致力於開發太空電梯技術，預計於2050年前以碳奈米管纜線連接地面港口與海底隧道。土木工程因此將面臨建構未來創新基礎設施的更大挑戰。

另一方面，自然災害與氣候變遷亦是不容忽視的議題。日本專家小組估計，未來30年內南海海槽於日本太平洋沿岸發生超級地震的機率為60%至90%。根據「政府間氣候變遷專門委員會」（IPCC）的報告，大氣中的二氧化碳濃度持續穩定上升。若未能大幅減少碳排放與溫室氣體排放，全球暖化將在未來幾十年內達到1.5°C至2°C。隨著海洋溫度升高，風暴強度加劇、全球降雨量增加，海平面上升與重大洪災頻發，導致風險升高與保險賠付增加，甚至可能出現多重災害同時發生的情況。

同時，開發中國家的人口成長正對水資源與糧食供應造成日益嚴峻的壓力。若人口成長、糧食生產，工業化，汙染與資源枯竭等趨勢持續未受控制，全球將在下個世紀內面臨成長極限。因此，聯合國所提出的17項「永續發展目標」（SDGs）呼籲各國立即採取行動。自COVID-19疫情以來，全球對於能源使用效率，永續交通與醫療照護的需求急遽上升。

因此，土木工程正經歷劇烈的轉型，受到基礎建設需求多元化的驅動；災害預防與減災需求日益增加，其中備援性，穩健與韌性必須成為基本原則；以及全球對永續發展目標與路徑的推動。這些典範轉移要求土木工程師投入相對嶄新的知識領域。