The Short-Run Effects of a Temporary Expansion in Overtime Eligibility for Salaried Workers
This paper studies how firms and workers adjusted to the temporary 2024 federal expansion of overtime eligibility for salaried workers and its subsequent rollback. I organize firms’ responses around two margins: raising salaries to preserve exemption or retaining existing salaries and adjusting hours and employment under nonexempt status. I find a substantial but temporary decline in overtime, little evidence of exemption-preserving salary increases, and suggestive evidence of higher employment in more exposed groups. Taken together, the results point to nonexempt hours adjustment as the more important short-run response and are consistent with expected policy duration being relevant to firms’ choice among adjustment margins.
Advancing AI Capabilities and Evolving Labor Outcomes
with Jacob Dominski and Yong Suk Lee
We construct and validate a dynamic measure of occupational exposure to advancing AI capabilities and link it to Current Population Survey data. The project studies how labor-market outcomes evolve as the technological frontier advances.
Working paper coming soon.