Ethan Jenkins - Research

Job Market Paper

Does Unemployment Insurance Reduce Crime? [Draft coming soon]

Presentations: Midwestern Economics Association Annual Conference (2024), Western Economics Association Annual Conference (2024), W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research (2024), Wheaton College (2024), APPAM Fall Research Conference (2024), Southern Economics Association Annual Meeting (2024)

Abstract

Does unemployment insurance (UI) reduce criminal behavior among low-wage displaced workers? To answer this question, I examine the effect of UI eligibility on subsequent criminal justice system involvement using linked UI and jail bookings administrative data. I estimate this effect using a regression discontinuity design that exploits the minimum earnings requirements for UI. I provide evidence indicating that being barely eligible for UI decreases arrest probability in the short run, with the overall reduction being driven by a reduction in arrests for assaults and drug crimes. The effects are large, although somewhat imprecisely estimated---within one year, access to UI leads to a 49 percent decrease in arrest probability, a 77 percent decrease in assault arrest probability, and a 71 percent decrease in drug crime arrest probability. Moreover, I consistently find a negative relationship between UI eligibility and arrests across many different specifications, and I can generally rule out large positive effects, which might be a concern if UI benefits prolong spells of nonemployment. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that this crime reduction generates large public benefits approximately equal to the fiscal cost of loosening monetary eligibility requirements.

Working Papers

The Effects of Unemployment Insurance on Housing-Insecure Families (with Robert Collinson) [Draft coming soon]

Presentations: APPAM Fall Research Conference (2024), Southern Economics Association Annual Meeting (2024)

Abstract

The primary purpose of unemployment insurance (UI) programs is to afford beneficiaries the ability to smooth consumption over employment-related income shocks. However, little is known about whether UI prevents extreme material hardship. In this paper, we evaluate the effect of UI on one extreme outcome: homelessness. With New York State and New York City administrative data, we estimate the impact of UI eligibility on homelessness using a regression discontinuity design (RDD) that exploits a cutoff based on workers' highest quarterly earnings in the past year. We find that UI eligibility reduces homelessness within three years by 6 percentage points (a 46 percent decline). Not accounting for how UI prevents extreme distress undervalues the benefits of UI.

Dynamic Individuals, Static Neighborhoods: Migration, Earnings Changes, and Concentrated Poverty (with Andrew Garin, Evan Mast, and Bryan Stuart) [PDF]

Presentations: Urban Economics Association (2025), Society of Labor Economists (2025), NBER Summer Institute: Urban Economics (2025)

Abstract

We use administrative data to document a high degree of migration across neighborhoods and neighborhood types defined in terms of poverty rate and median income. Neighborhood quality increases over an individual's life cycle, and people also move to better neighborhoods in response to earnings improvements. We then develop several implications of these initial facts for high-poverty neighborhoods. First, resident turnover in these areas is rapid. Second, among the people living in a poor neighborhood at a point in time, the distribution of future concentrated poverty exposure is bimodal. Young people, renters, and those with children tend to spend fewer than half of the next ten years in similar neighborhoods, while older people and homeowners are unlikely to exit concentrated poverty. Third, poor neighborhoods tend to remain poor because of a dynamic process in which initial residents experience high earnings growth but disproportionately out-migrate when earnings improve, contrasting with a pure "poverty trap" understanding of persistent concentrated poverty.

Work in Progress

"The Impact of Childhood and Prenatal Medicaid on Future Criminal Involvement "