Mapping the Future: Predicting American Burying Beetle Habitat Suitability Using Maxent
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Research Group
Research Group
Department of Biology, Miami University
Emmanelle Cuasay*, Dr. David E. Russell, Alex Dunahoo, Jason Bracken, Matt Valiga
(*undergraduate presenter)
Abstract.
Abstract.
The American Burying Beetle (Nicrophorus americanus) is a critically endangered species whose range has dramatically declined due to habitat loss and environmental change. As climate change continues to alter ecosystems, new areas may become suitable for its survival. This study uses MaxEnt v.3.4.4 in R to model current and future habitat suitability for N. americanus under the severe SSP585 climate scenario projected for 2061–2080. Occurrence data were obtained from research-grade iNaturalist records, and models were built using key bioclimatic variables: Annual Mean Temperature (BIO01), Minimum Temperature of Coldest Month (BIO06), Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter (BIO10), Annual Precipitation (BIO12), and Precipitation of Wettest Quarter (BIO16). Future projections were based on outputs from the EC-Earth3-Veg global circulation model. The final model performed strongly (AUC = 0.940) with low omission rates, indicating high reliability. Results suggest a potential poleward shift in suitable habitat, aligning with broader patterns of climate-driven range shifts in insects. These findings highlight the importance of identifying future suitable habitats, particularly those outside current protected areas, as priorities for conservation and connectivity planning.
Introduction.
Introduction.
The American Burying Beetle (Nicrophorus americanus) is a critically endangered species in North America.
Predicted new habitats have been linked with climate change (Crawford et al. 2010), potentially creating areas of suitability for N. americanus.
Species distribution modelling software such as MaxEnt can help project future suitability under climate change scenarios.
Objective: To evaluate if suitable habitat for the American Burying Beetle may shift by 2061-2080 under a severe climate change scenario (SSP585).
Methods.
Methods.
Occurrence Data: Research grade iNaturalist records of N. americanus.
Environmental Variables: Use of climate raster data: Annual Mean Temperature (BIO01), Min Temperature of Coldest Month (BIO06), Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter (BIO10), Annual Precipitation (BIO12), and Precipitation of Wettest Quarter (BIO16).
Software and Modeling Approach: MaxEnt v. 3.4.4 implemented in R (packages rJava, dismo, ENMeval, and tidyterra used).
Projection: Future habitat suitability was modeled using climate projections from the EC-Earth3-Veg global circulation model under the SSP585 scenario (2061–2080).
Model Evaluation: Metrics using AUC and omission rate.
Results.
Results.
Figure 1. Current predicted habitat suitability for N. americanus based on bioclimatic variables. Suitability is shown on continuous scale from low (blue) to high (red), indicating areas with increasingly favorable environmental conditions for the species under present-day climate.
Figure 2. Projected future habitat suitability for N. americanus under SSP585 climate scenario for years 2061-2080. Model predicts shifts in suitable habitat due to climate change, with suitability values ranging from low (blue) to high (red).
Figure 3. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. Red line shows mean model performance with blue shading representing standard deviation across replicate models. Black diagonal line indicates random performance. Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.940 indicates high predictive accuracy.
Figure 4. Average omission and predicted area plot. Red line represents mean proportion of landscape predicted as suitable across thresholds while blue line shows predicted omission rate. Green line shows mean omission on test data while black diagonal line represents random model (1:1).
Conclusions.
Conclusions.
Possible Elevational or Latitudinal Shifts: Species habitat suitability is moving poleward in response to warming - pattern consistent with climate-driven range shifts documented in insects and plants.
High Predictive Performance and Consistent Model Accuracy: Low omission rates at relevant thresholds and high AUC (0.940) indicates strong model performance.
Implications for Conservation Planning: Areas not currently protected but predicted to be suitable in future may become key targets for conservation or habitat corridors.
Future Directions.
Future Directions.
Expand analyses to additional Nicrophorus species to assess whether projected range shifts under climate change are consistent across the genus.
Incorporate land use and other environmental variables to refine habitat suitability predictions.
Development of NACE Competencies.
Development of NACE Competencies.
Career and Self-Development
This study improved the undergraduate's awareness of her own strengths and areas with room for improvement. It aided her in deciding on plans for postbaccalaureate opportunities.
Communication
The project required many revisions and taught the student when and how to seek guidance. It allowed her to develop a clear, organized communication style.
Critical Thinking
The student was able to apply statistics she learned in her coursework and analyze data with an awareness of personal biases. She was able to make decisions and solve problems using inclusive reasoning and judgment.
Technology
RStudio and other software were required to complete this project, enabling the undergraduate to navigate new technologies and, ultimately, improving the productivity of her work.
References.
References.
Crawford, P. H., & Hoagland, B. W. (2010). Using species distribution models to guide conservation at the state level: the endangered American burying beetle (Nicrophorus americanus) in Oklahoma. Journal of Insect Conservation, 14, 511-521.
Author contacts:
Emmanelle Cuasay: cuasayef@miamioh.edu
Alex Dunahoo: dunahoab@miamioh.edu
Jason Bracken: brackejt@miamioh.edu
Matt Valiga: valigamh@miamioh.edu
Dr. David E. Russell: russeld@miamioh.edu
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