Bellwether Counties

Population:  77,616

Last Missed Election Prediction:  1976

Description:  Located on the Olympic Peninsula south of the Strait of Juan de Fuca.  Port Angeles is its largest city.  It is home to the town of Forks, popularized by the Twilight series.  It is also home to part of Olympic National Park and several wildlife areas.  It is the only county to accurately vote for the presidential winner in every election since 1980 and predicted all but two presidential elections since 1920.  Many experts consider Clallam County to be the best bellwether county in the nation.

Website:  https://www.clallamcountywa.gov/

Population:  6,899

Last Missed Election Prediction:  1988

Description:  Named after former US Secretary of State James G. Blaine under President Benjamin Harrison.  The county is located in north-central Montana along the Canadian border.  Most of the Fort Belknap Indian Reservation is located within the county.  It has predicted all but two presidential elections since 1916.  The county is bigger in area than both Rhode Island and Delaware.

Website:  https://blainecounty-mt.gov/

Population:  66,258

Last Missed Election Prediction:  1988

Description:  Located along the North Dakota border in northwest Minnesota.  The largest city is Moorhead, considered a part of the Fargo-Moorhead Metropolitan Area.  It is a hub for higher education with three institutions of higher learning in the area.  Moorhead is also known as a cultural center with several museums.  The Prairie Home Cemetery was the inspiration for Garrison Keillor's A Prairie Home Companion program on NPR.

Website:  https://claycountymn.gov/

Population:  30,562

Last Missed Election Prediction:  1992

Description:  Located along Lake Michigan  and Sturgeon Bay in northeast Wisconsin.  It is home to "Death's Door," a strait between Washington Island and the Door Peninsula.  The county is known as the "Cape Cod of the Midwest."  It is home to farmland, forests, and an artist community.  It is a major tourism area.  Recently, Door County has been featured on PBS as a major bellwether county for presidential elections.

Website:  https://www.travelwisconsin.com/northeast/door-county/door-county

Population:  36,775

Last Missed Election Prediction:  1992

Description:  Located in upstate New York.  It is one of only two counties that is entirely within the Adirondack Park.  It is home to Lake Placid, which hosted the 1980 Winter Olympics that featured the "Miracle on Ice" game.  It was home to the abolitionist John Brown before he moved to Kansas.  It was also the childhood home of Lana Del Rey.  In terms of land area, Essex County is larger than Rhode Island.

Website:  https://essexcountyny.gov/

Population:  427,354

Last Missed Election Prediction:  1992

Description:  The county is the largest in New Hampshire and is home to Manchester and Nashua, the state's two largest cities.  It is considered the most critical county for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the state.  Today, the county is known for its arts and cultural attractions as well as its natural beauty.

Website:  https://hcnh.org/

Population:  189,789

Last Missed Election Prediction:  1992

Description:  The middle county of the three making up the state of Delaware.  It is home to the state capital, Dover.  It is home to the only HBCU in the state, Delaware State University.  Kent County also boasts a large Amish population.  The county is home to Dover Air Force Base, one of the most important in the nation.  The county is also the location of the famous Bombay Hook National Wildlife Refuge.  It is also home to many historical sites from the revolution as well as sites along the Underground Railroad.

Website:  https://www.dscc.com/kentcounty.html

Population:  238,711

Last Missed Election Prediction:  1992

Description:  This county in Upstate New York is known as the "Gateway to the Adirondack Mountains."  The county is in the heart of New York's "Tech Valley" and is one of the fastest growing counties in the state.  Saratoga is home to the Saratoga Race Course, an internationally renowned horse racing venue.  It is the site of the Battle of Saratoga, considered the turning point for the Americans in the Revolutionary War.  

Website:  https://www.saratogacountyny.gov/

Population:  253,886

Last Missed Election Prediction:  1996

Description:  This independence city is located south of Norfolk, Virginia and is the second-most populous city in the state.  Virginia has 38 independent cities which have many of the functions of a county.  Much of the city is part of the Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge.  Much of the city is along the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway.  It is considered one of the best cities in the United States to live in and is the headquarters of Dollar Tree.  It has predicted every presidential election outcome since 1972 except 1992 and 1996.

Website:  https://www.visitchesapeake.com/

Population:  961,596

Last Missed Election Prediction:  2000

Description:  Pinellas County is the most densely populated county in Florida.  It is home to St. Petersburg along Tampa Bay.  It is a major hub of industries such as aviation, defense, medical, and financial services.  The county is home to three professional sports teams.  The county was recently hit hard by Hurricanes Helene and Milton.  Pinellas County is the largest bellwether county in the nation by population.

Website:  https://pinellas.gov/

Population:  70,006

Last Missed Election Prediction:  2004

Description:  The county is named for the deposits of blue-green clay along the banks of the Minnesota & Blue Earth Rivers.  It is home to the city of Mankato and Minnesota State University-Mankato.  Blue Earth County contains many natural areas as well as a vibrant arts and culture scene.  It has successfully predicted 13 of the last 15 presidential elections with the exception of 1988 and 2004.

Website:  https://www.blueearthcountymn.gov/

Population:  308,423

Last Missed Election Prediction:  2004

Description:  The county borders Philadelphia across the Delaware River.  It boasts a rich history dating back to the American Revolution.  It is home to Rowan University.  The county is home to several award-winning wineries and its location makes it a suburb of Philadelphia.  Today, the county is considered a major agricultural area of New Jersey.  The county has accurately predicted every election since 1980 with the exception of 2000 and 2004.

Website:  https://gloucestercountynj.gov/

Population:  127,259

Last Missed Election Prediction:  2004

Description:  Located in south-central Maine, it is home to the state capital of Augusta.  The area is known for its natural beauty and cultural attractions.  There are many picturesque historic towns within the area and it is also home to the historic Colby College, Thomas College and University of Maine-Augusta.  The county has accurately predicted every election since 1980 with the exception of 2000 and 2004.  Joe Biden won the county in 2020 by only 181 votes.

Website:  https://kennebec.gov/

Population:  34,242

Last Missed Election Prediction:  2004

Description:  The county hugs the Minnesota River with North Mankato as its largest city.  The county seat, St. Peter, is home to the historic Gustavus Adolphus College.  It is a popular place for tourists due to its history and natural beauty.  The county is named after a famous French geographer, astronomer and mathematician who helped map the Upper Mississippi Basin.

Website:  https://www.co.nicollet.mn.us/

Population:  319,091

Last Missed Election Prediction:  2004

Description:  This county is located along the Delaware River and is part of the Upper Delaware Scenic and Recreational River area.  Historically, the county has been a national leader in manufacturing, especially concrete and steel.  The county is home to Lafayette College, Lehigh University, and Moravian University.  Bethlehem Steel is headquartered here and it is home to the National Museum of Industrial History.  The county is famous in Pennsylvania as being a bellwether for the state.  It is the third-largest bellwether county in the nation by population.  They have predicted every election since 1980 with the exception of 2000 and 2004.

Website:  https://www.northamptoncounty.org/

Population:  159,305

Last Missed Election Prediction:  2004

Description:  Located along the eastern border of New York with Vermont and Massachusetts, this historic county has a rich history for Dutch settlement as well as events from the American Revolution.  The largest city is Troy, part of the Capital District of the state along with Albany and Schenectady.  The county has accurately predicted every election since 1980 with the exception of 2000 and 2004. 

Website:  https://www.rensco.com/

Population:  65,920

Last Missed Election Prediction:  2004

Description:  Located in south-central Wisconsin within the Driftless Area.  The largest city, Baraboo, was the home of the Ringling Brothers and the county is home to the Circus World Museum.  It is the headquarters of Culver's Restaurants.  The county is known for its airplane manufacturing and historic places.  It is the location of Devil's Lake State Park, one of the most popular in Wisconsin.  The county has accurately predicted every election since 1980 with the exception of 2000 and 2004.

Website:  https://www.co.sauk.wi.us/

Population:  43,969

Last Missed Election Prediction:  2004

Description:  It is the second-least populous county in New Hampshire.  Sullivan County is located along the Connecticut River, which serves as the border between New Hampshire and Vermont.  It is home to Saint-Gaudens National Historic Site, the only National Park unit in the state.  The county boasts beautiful covered bridges, historic homes, and scenic mountains.  It has accurately predicted every national election since 1980 with the exception of 2004.

Website:  https://www.sullivancountynh.gov/

Population:  49,721

Last Missed Election Prediction:  2004

Description:  Located along the Mississippi River within the Driftless Area in southeastern Minnesota.  Over half of the population of the county resides in the city of Winona, home to Winona State University and St. Mary's University of Minnesota.  It is known for its natural beauty and towering bluffs over the Mississippi River.  There are many cultural attractions within the county as well as parks and shops.  The county has accurately predicted every election since 1980 with the exception of 2000 and 2004.

Website:  https://www.co.winona.mn.us/