Research Fields

Monetary Economics / Macroeconomics / Central Banking Studies / Japanese Economy / Consumer Price Index

Work in Progress

Reexamination of  Shadow Interest Rate Modeling 

Balance Sheet Size Reduction of the Bank of Japan 

A Practical Application of Scanner Data to Consumer Price Index

An Update on the Measurement Errors in the Japanese Consumer Price Index 

Working Papers / Discussion Papers

1. "On the Source of Seasonality in Price Changes: The Role of Seasonality in Menu Costs," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series No. DP2023-016, November 2023  (joint with Ko Munakata, Takeshi Shinohara, Nao Sudo, and Tsutomu Watanabe).

2. "Toward a More Accurate Measurement of the Consumer Price Index: Reexamination of Longstanding Unresolved Issues,"  Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series No. DP2023-001, January 2023 (in Japanese).

3. "Measuring Robot Quality: Has Quality Improvement Slowed Down?," RIETI Discussion Paper Series 21-E-054, July 2021 (joint with Ippei Fujiwara, Ryo Kimoto, and Toyoichiro Shirota).

4. "Lower-Level Substitution Bias in the Japanese Consumer Price Index: Evidence from Government Micro Data," IERDiscussion Paper Series A No.722, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University,  June 2021.

5. "Central Bank Digital Currency and Financial System," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series No. DP2021-010, May 2021 (in Japanese).

Published Papers

1.  "What Did the Bank of Japan Do under the Yield Curve Control Policy?," Journal of the Japanese and International  Economies, 76, 2025.

2. "Monetary Policy Effectiveness under the Ultra-Low Interest Rate Environment: Evidence from Yield Curve Dynamics in Japan,"  Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 87 (1), 2025.

3. “Consumer price measurement under the first wave of the COVID-19 spread in Japan: Scanner data evidence for retailers in Tokyo,” Japan and the World Economy 65, 2023 (joint with Masahiro Higo).  

4. A Macroprudential Perspective in Central Banking,” in Akira Kohsaka ed. Macro-Financial Linkages in the Pacific Region, Routledge, 2015.

5.  “Evolution of Quantitative Easing,” in Sahoko Kaji and Eiji Ogawa eds., Who Will Provide the Next Financial Model?: Asia’s Financial Muscle and Europe’s Financial Maturity, Springer, 2012.

6.  “Size and Composition of the Central Bank Balance Sheet: Revisiting Japan’s Experience of the Quantitative Easing Policy,” Monetary and Economic Studies 28, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 2010.

7.  “Measurement Errors in the Japanese CPI,” IFC Bulletin, No. 24, Irving Fisher Committee on Central-Bank Statistics, 2006.

8.  “The Policy Duration Effect and Zero Interest Rates: An Application of Wavelet Analysis,” in Michael Hutchison and Frank Westermann eds. Japan’s Great Stagnation: Financial and Monetary Policy Lessons for Advanced Economies, MIT Press, 2006 (joint with Kunio Okina).

9.  “Revisiting the Decline in the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Further Evidence from Japan’s Import Prices,” Monetary and Economic Studies 24(1), Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 2006 (joint with Akira Otani and Toyoichiro Shirota).

10.  “The Asset Price Bubble in Japan in the 1980s: Lessons for Financial and Macroeconomic Stability,” BIS Papers No. 21 (Real Estate Indicators and Financial Stability), Bank for International Settlements, 2005.

11.  “Asset Price Fluctuations, Structural Adjustments, and Sustained Economic Growth: Lessons from Japan's Experience since the Late 1980s,” Monetary and Economic Studies 22(S-1), Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 2004 (joint with Kunio Okina).

12.  “On Long-Run Monetary Neutrality in Japan,” Monetary and Economic Studies 22(3), Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 2004 (joint with Hiroyuki Oi and Toyoichiro Shirota).

13.  “Distortions in Factor Markets and Structural Adjustments in the Economy,” Monetary and Economic Studies 22(2), Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 2004 (joint with Masayuki Nakakuki and Akira Otani).

14.  “Policy Commitment and Expectation Formation: Japan’s Experience under Zero Interest Rates,” The North American Journal of Economics and Finance 15(1), 2004 (joint with Kunio Okina).

15.  “Precautionary Motives versus Waiting Options: Evidence from Aggregate Household Saving in Japan,” Monetary and Economic Studies 21(3), Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 2003 (joint with Makoto Saito).

16.  “The Decline in the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence from Japanese Import Prices,” Monetary and Economic Studies 21(3), Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 2003 (joint with Akira Otani and Toyoichiro Shirota).

17.  “Zero-Interest-Rate Policy, the Forward-Rate Curve, and Policy Duration Effect,” in Robert M. Stern ed., Japan’s Economic Recovery, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2003 (joint with Hiroshi Fujiki).

18.  “Japan’s Experience with Asset Price Bubbles: Is It a Case for Inflation Targeting?,” in William C. Hunter, George G. Kaufman, and Michael Pomerleano eds., Asset Price Bubbles, The MIT Press, 2003 (joint with Kunio Okina).

19.  “Asset Price Bubbles, Price Stability, and Monetary Policy: Japan's Experience,” Monetary and Economic Studies 20(3), Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 2002 (joint with Kunio Okina).

20.  “Policy Duration Effect under the Zero Interest Rate Policy in 1999-2000: Evidence from Japan’s Money Market Data,” Monetary and Economic Studies 20(1), Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 2002 (joint with Hiroshi Fujiki).

21.  “Information Content of Implied Probability Distributions: Empirical Studies of Japanese Stock Price Index Options,” Monetary and Economic Studies 19(3), Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 2001.

22.  “Asset Prices, Financial Stability and Monetary Policy: Based on Japan’s Experience of the Asset Price Bubble,” BIS Papers No. 1 (Marrying the Macro- and Microprudential Dimensions of Financial Stability), Bank for International Settlement, 2001.

23.  “Is There a Desirable Rate of Inflation? A Theoretical and Empirical Survey,” Monetary and Economic Studies 19(2), Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 2001.

24.  “Policy Responses to the Post-Bubble Adjustments in Japan: A Tentative Review,” Monetary and Economic Studies 19(S-1), Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 2001 (joint with Naruki Mori and Hiroo Taguchi).

25.  “Financial Crises as the Failure of Arbitrage: Implications for Monetary Policy,” Monetary and Economic Studies 19(S-1), Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 2001 (joint with Makoto Saito).

26.  “The Asset Price Bubble and Monetary Policy: Japan’s Experience in the Late 1980s and the Lessons,” Monetary and Economic Studies 19(S-1), Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 2001 (joint with Masaaki Shirakawa, and Kunio Okina).

27.  “Monetary Policy under Zero Interest Rate --- Viewpoints of Central Bank Economists ---,” Monetary and Economic Studies 19(1), Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 2001 (joint with Hiroshi Fujiki, and Kunio Okina).

28.  “Financial Market Globalization: Present and Future,” Monetary and Economic Studies 17(3), Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 1999 (joint with Masaaki Shirakawa, and Kunio Okina).

29.  “Measurement Errors in Japanese Consumer Price Index,” Monetary and Economic Studies 17(3), Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 1999.

30.  “Asset Price Fluctuation and Price Indices,” Monetary and Economic Studies 17(3), Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 1999.

31.  “Measurement Errors and Quality-Adjustment Methodology: Lessons from the Japanese CPI,” Economic Perspectives 23(2), Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 1999.

32.  “Extracting Market Expectations form Option Prices: Case Studies in Japanese Option Markets,” Monetary and Economic Studies 17(1), Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 1999 (joint with Hisashi Nakamura).

33.  “Inflation Measures for Monetary Policy: Measuring Underlying Inflation Trend and Its Implication for Monetary Policy Implementation,” Monetary and Economic Studies 15(2), Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 1997.

34.  “Automobile Prices and Quality Changes: A Hedonic Price Analysis of the Japanese Automobile Market,” Monetary and Economic Studies 13(2), Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Bank of Japan, 1995.

35.  “Effects of Quality Changes on the Price Index: A Hedonic Approach to the Estimation of a Quality Adjusted Price Index for Personal Computers in Japan,” Monetary and Economic Studies 13(1), Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Bank of Japan, 1995.

Short Papers / Comments

1.  “Performance of Core Indicators of Japan's Consumer Price Index,” Bank of Japan Review, 2015-E-7, 2015.

2.  “Comments on ‘Product Downsizing and Hidden Price Increases: Evidence from Japan’s Deflationary Period’ by Satoshi Imai and Tsutomu Watanabe,” Asian Economic Policy Review 9(1), 2014.

3.  “Discussion of ‘Did the Crisis Affect Inflation Expectations?’,” International Journal of Central Banking, 7(1), 2011.

4.  “Comment on ‘Defining Price Stability in Japan: A View from America,” Monetary and Economic Studies 25(S-1), Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 2007.

5.  “Core Indicators of Japan’s Consumer Price Index,” Bank of Japan Review, 2006-E-7, 2006.