Embedded Files
General Pointers
Timing
Forecasts can be submitted between 00Z -> 16Z when they are due.
Forecast verification will begin at 1630Z and goes to 1200Z the next day. Any tornadoes that happen before 1630Z do not count.
We will forecast every day of the M-F work week
Scoring
Scores are evaluated by your distance from tornadoes and warnings
Scoring will add up, more points are better
Verification will happen several days after the event
Forecasts
You use your forecast number to input a forecast
You chose "Yes Tornado" or "No Tornado" depending on the likelihood of tornado formation based on your intuition
If you chose "Yes Tornado" you have to supply further information on your point forecast
Scoring Breakdown
Abbreviations: Distance to Tornado/Damage Report (DTT), Distance to Warning (DTW), Maximum Possible Tornado Score (MaxTor; 30 points)
Score = Distance + Warnings + Podium + Lone Wolf Bonus (when applicable)
Calculating the Distance component:
If DTT < 25 miles
Distance Component = ( 0.0225*DTT^2 ) - ( 1.1248*DTT ) + (MaxTor-0.9425)
Exponential decrease in reward as you get farther away... at 25 miles == 15 points
If DTT > 25 miles, but DTT < 100 miles
Distance Component = (( -DTT*(( 0.5*MaxTor)/75 ))+( 2/3*MaxTor ))
Linear decrease in the reward as you get farther away out to 100 miles
If DTT > 100 miles
Distance Component = 0
Calculating the Warnings component:
This is based off the number of warnings you intersect or are near...
Inside a warning (+8)
Near a warning (+4), where the DTW <= 10 miles
Example calculation... your forecast intersects 2 warnings and is near 1 more. Warning Component = ( 2*8 ) + ( 1*4 )
Determining the "Lone Wolf":
If you are 100+ miles from the next nearest forecaster, and DTT < 25 miles... +30 points!
Podium component:
1st place = +12
2nd place = +8
3rd place = +4
Examples...
Forecaster A: 40 miles from a tornado, intersecting 2 warnings
Distance Component = 12, Warning Component = 16, Total Score = +28
Forecaster B: 1/2 of a mile from a tornado, first place
Distance Component = 29, Podium Bonus = +12, Total Score = +41
When there no tornado reports...
If you forecasted "No Tornado" you will receive points according to the SPC risk at 1630Z
Our Forecasting Regions
Forecast regions do not affect scoring. They offer forecasters the ability to explore their forecasting accuracy in different environments
What's New in 2023?
No more missed forecasts
If you want to forecast go ahead, if you don't want to that's on you... but don't expect any rewards for skipping a day
No more weekend forecasting, but forecast days are no longer bound to the SPC tornado threat forecast
This is to lessen the burnout for most people and give the admin team some designated time to troubleshoot things and run verification
To be able to compare our forecasts/verification to the SPC 1630Z outlook, we are asking forecasts to be submitted earlier this year (16Z), and there will always be a 30-minute buffer between when forecasts are due and when verification will begin to avoid "cherry picking" active tornadic storms
No more Bonus Forecasts, Challenge Forecasts, and Nowcast Days
They were complicated to keep track of and folks wanted more consistency
EVERYTHING IS SCORED THE SAME WAY, EVERYDAY
Forecast regions have changed a bit...
We have switched around the borders and combined regions to increase the potential sample size in each region
We have added an extra stat sheet, apart from the usual leaderboards
It will keep track of certain statistics that may provide value to individuals that may not have the means to forecast enough to top the leaderboards, but still want to participate and enjoy in the contest!
No more daily emails
We will switch to weekly updates
We have added a "Lone Wolf"
This was done to encourage to take risks in their forecasts and decrease the benefit of "hedging your bet" by sticking to the middle of risk areas
Nadocast and Forecaster Consensus can now have a "No Tornado" option
This was done because we are doing away with daily forecast emails,. There may be a 0% risk day for SPC that falls on a Tuesday... this would prompt most forecasters to select "No Tornado"
For Nadocast, if there is no grid point >=1% that will switch Nadocast to a "No Tornado" forecast
For Consensus, if <50% of forecasters select "No Tornado" then Forecaster Consensus is switched to "No Tornado"
We have added a form to allow users to prompt the "rescoring" of an event
This can be accessed thru the homepage!
No more dropped forecasts...
Because of the switch away from golf scoring, dropping a forecast score is no longer applicable
Page updated
Report abuse