Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion

6/14/2023

Zonal flow across the deep south continues. This morning, convection is developing in the MS delta region, and I actually believe some of the most favorable conditions for tornadoes develop prior to 1630z in southern MS. However, as clustered thunderstorms continue to develop, there could be some more tornadoes that develop later this evening in southwest GA where low-level SRH can be maximized. There are some clear hindrances though: a general lack of curvature in the first kilometer of forecast hodographs is noted (we've seen days without extreme low-level shear fail in dixie before - 3/26 of this year comes to mind), and a messy storm mode is likely with winds aloft paralleling the stationary front.

Elsewhere, near southwest CT in the urban I-95 corridor, a couple of brief tornadoes are possible with some curvature characterizing the hodograph. This severe convective potential will develop beneath a broad upper-level low gradually moving east that will cool temps aloft. 

-Veer (rest of name redacted?)