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General Pointers...
General Pointers...
Forecasts are due at 1730Z unless we are locked into a "nowcast" which moves the forecast time up to 1630Z. Warnings and tornadoes that occurred between 1730Z and 12Z the next day are used for the scoring.
The closer your forecast is to a tornado, the better! Lower points are good!
If there is a forecast day with zero tornado reports, you won't receive a penalty for forecasting. If you said "No Tornado", you will get points removed!
Be patient as damage surveys may take more than a few days following an event. Verification is generally posted between 2-5 days after the event.
We will drop everyone's worst forecast at the end of each season (Dixie/Plains) before reporting final results.
Warning Based Scoring
Warning Based Scoring
Regular Forecasts
You will receive a point reduction if you are near an unverified warning (see the right most term in the equation below).
The point reduction will be capped at half the distance to a tornado
If your distance from a tornado < distance from an unverified warning… there is no point reduction
Score Calculation = Distance to tornado indicator - (Distance to tornado indicator / Distance to unverified warning polygon)
Only tornadoes and warnings from after forecasts are due will be counted. No cherry picking morning tornadoes!
Challenge and Bonus Forecasts
Challenges and Bonus forecasts are opportunities to get points off your cumulative score without the threat of adding error!
2% tornado risk days are always bonus days!
The structure for the bonuses vary by tornado risk and forecast region:
Our Forecasting Regions
Our Forecasting Regions
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