Research

"Local Economic Impacts of Food Manufacturing Plant Closures in the Midwest" (JMP)

Abstract: This paper provides the first systematic evidence on the local economic impacts of food manufacturing plant closures across Midwestern counties between 2010 and 2024. Using synthetic difference-in-differences, I find that a food plant closure reduces total county employment by about 8.1 percent for strongly treated counties, equivalent to an average loss of 528 jobs compared with an average layoff size of 418. Manufacturing employment falls as expected, and non-manufacturing employment erodes more gradually, suggesting spillover effects that accumulate over time. The unemployment rate spikes immediately after closures and remains elevated for several months. The effects are uneven, with employment losses disproportionately large among minority groups, especially Hispanic and Black workers. These groups also experience local population decline. Food manufacturing plant closures have important local economic impacts, including multiplier effects that extend beyond directly displaced workers and unequal burdens within and across rural and small-town counties.

"Growing from the STEM? OPT Classification and International Students in Economics" with John Winters

Abstract: The Optional Practical Training (OPT) program now provides up to 36 months of employment authorization for foreign students completing college degrees in the U.S. in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) fields.  Econometrics and Quantitative Economics (EQE) was added as a STEM field in 2012, triggering an explosion of EQE programs and degrees conferred, but some of this growth involved displacement from other economics programs.  We document the growth of EQE and examine effects of OPT and EQE program creation on overall economics bachelor’s degrees conferred to international students.  We find positive effects on international economics degrees with effects that appear larger at public colleges and universities than private ones.  We also examine effects on domestic students and find more mixed results.  Our results suggest that EQE program creation on average benefits foreign students and higher education institutions.

"Fracked Up or Fracked Out? Demographic Consequences from Shale Development" with John Winters, Luyi Han, and Mike Betz

Abstract: Fracking transformed energy production and local economies with shale resources in the USA. While fracking created employment and income benefits for workers, it also created health, environmental, and quality of life concerns for local residents. These competing effects create ambiguous expectations for how fracking affects local population. Furthermore, fracking is expected to differentially affect younger and older age groups due to differential labor market attachment and health sensitivity. We estimate demographic impacts of fracking using synthetic difference-in-differences event analysis focusing on ages 25-54 and 65 plus. We find that fracking had average positive impacts on log population for ages 25-54 but negative effects for ages 65 plus. We also examine mortality data and find suggestive evidence that fracking increased elderly death rates during and after the onset of COVID-19.

Hu, S. 2026. "Local Impacts of Food Manufacturing Plant Closures in the Midwest," Agricultural Policy Review, Winter 2026, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University

A policy-oriented companion to my job market paper, summarizing how employment in Midwestern counties evolves following major food manufacturing plant closures: a sharp, persistent drop in manufacturing employment, a roughly 6% decline in total employment, and slower spillover losses in non-manufacturing sectors, along with what these patterns imply for workforce support and local recovery policy.

Link: Local Impacts of Food Manufacturing Plant Closures in the Midwest 

"Food Manufacturing Closures" — an interactive dashboard mapping food manufacturing plant closures across the Midwest since 2010 using Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) data. Users can filter closures by state, year, company, and layoff size, and click any county to see how local employment, wages, and population evolved around the closure. It serves as a companion to the Agricultural Policy Review article above. 

Link: Closure Map 

Iowa State University

Research Excellence Award, 2026