Research

"Local Economic Impacts of Food Manufacturing Plant Closures in the Midwest" (JMP)

Abstract: This paper provides the first systematic evidence on the local economic impacts of food manufacturing plant closures across Midwestern counties between 2010 and 2024. Using synthetic difference-in-differences, I find that a food plant closure reduces total county employment by about 8.1 percent for strongly treated counties, equivalent to an average loss of 528 jobs compared with an average layoff size of 418. Manufacturing employment falls as expected, and non-manufacturing employment erodes more gradually, suggesting spillover effects that accumulate over time. The unemployment rate spikes immediately after closures and remains elevated for several months. The effects are uneven, with employment losses disproportionately large among minority groups, especially Hispanic and Black workers. These groups also experience local population decline. Food manufacturing plant closures have important local economic impacts, including multiplier effects that extend beyond directly displaced workers and unequal burdens within and across rural and small-town counties.

Link: "Local Economic Impacts of Food Manufacturing Plant Closures in the Midwest" 

"Growing from the STEM? OPT Classification and International Students in Economics" with John Winters

Abstract: The Optional Practical Training (OPT) program now provides up to 36 months of employment authorization for foreign students completing college degrees in the U.S. in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) fields.  Econometrics and Quantitative Economics (EQE) was added as a STEM field in 2012, triggering an explosion of EQE programs and degrees conferred, but some of this growth involved displacement from other economics programs.  We document the growth of EQE and examine effects of OPT and EQE program creation on overall economics bachelor’s degrees conferred to international students.  We find positive effects on international economics degrees with effects that appear larger at public colleges and universities than private ones.  We also examine effects on domestic students and find more mixed results.  Our results suggest that EQE program creation on average benefits foreign students and higher education institutions.

"Population Impacts of the Fracking Boom and Bust" with John Winters, Luyi Han, and Mike Betz

Abstract: Local employment impacts of the fracking revolution have been widely studied, but population impacts have been largely overlooked. While flows of jobs and people are generally linked, the fracking boom was followed by a bust period and has other unique features that may limit the overall impact on population growth. In particular, many new oil and gas jobs were filled by temporary residents and long-distance commuters with little desire to permanently relocate. We examine population impacts of the fracking boom and bust using event analysis of U.S. Census Bureau county annual population estimates. We focus on non-metropolitan areas and also examine differences by initial population size and shale region. Areas with smaller initial population and workforce are expected to experience larger relative impacts for a given amount of new oil and gas production. We find that the fracking boom had an overall average positive impact on population that was largely, but not completely, reversed during the bust period. The impact is more pronounced for non-metropolitan than metropolitan areas as expected.