2018 Oscar Award Predictions

The 90th Academy Awards ceremony is slated to air on ABC at 8:00 pm EST on March 4, 2018, and will be hosted by Jimmy Kimmel. The Academy recently released its nominations for every category, and, as the most prestigious night in film, these nominations are understandably creating a lot of buzz. I have seen of a lot of movies from 2017, many of them great. I would like to go through all of the nominees for each category and give my thoughts; I will then say who I want to win and who I think will win. My predictions may be very inaccurate, but that is all part of the fun.

I will not discuss the nominations for foreign films, short films, or documentaries because I am not familiar enough with any of the nominees. I know very little regarding the plots, subject matter, and reception, and I have not seen any of them. The nominations for each individual category are as follows:

Best Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman, The Insult, Loveless, On Body and Soul, The Square

Best Live Action Short Film: DeKalb Elementary, The Eleven O’Clock, My Nephew Emmett, The Silent Child, Watu Wote/All of Us

Animated Short: Dear Basketball, Garden Party, Lou, Negative Space, Revolting Rhymes

Best Documentary Short Subject: Edith+Eddie, Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405, Heroin(e), Knife Skills, Traffic Stop

Best Documentary Feature: Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, Faces Places, Icarus, Last Men in Aleppo, Strong Island

Visual Effects

Nominees: Blade Runner 2049, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Kong: Skull Island, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, War for the Planet of the Apes

All of these films have phenomenal visuals. I would say that Guardians of the Galaxy and Kong are unlikely, as they are not much more than your standard blockbuster. The Academy often prefers something that offers deeper subject matter. I think Blade Runner 2049 is the best contender due to its unique visuals, and it is also the most critically acclaimed choice. I would, however, be happy to see Blade Runner, Star Wars, or Apes win. They are all very deserving.

Costume Design

Nominees: Beauty and the Beast, Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water, Victoria and Abdul

I may be biased, but there seems like a clear winner to me. None of the clothes are quite as vibrant as those in Beauty and the Beast. The vibrant Victorian dresses and suits literally pop off the screen and are hard to beat. I suppose the Academy could surprise me though.

Makeup and Hair

Nominees: Darkest Hour, Victoria and Abdul, Wonder

I think Darkest Hour is the biggest contender. Victoria and Abdul and Wonder are excellent, and Wonder deserves credit for the transformation of the boy. Darkest Hour, however, completely transforms Gary Oldman and morphs him into the historical setting; you have to look at this makeup and hair for the entire movie. Wonder deserves praise, but the boy’s face is often hidden under a helmet. I am not familiar with Victoria and Abdul, though, so maybe that will snag the Oscar.

Original Song

Nominees: “Mighty River” (Mudbound), “Mystery of Love” (Call Me By Your Name), “Remember Me” (Coco), “Stand Up for Something” (Marshall), “This Is Me” (The Greatest Showman)

This is a tough prediction for me as I am only familiar with a couple of the songs. I do not think Mudbound will win. I saw that movie and do not recall the song, so I would think it is not very memorable. I also think the Academy would decide against Marshall because of its obscurity, and I would not be surprised if they avoid The Greatest Showman due to its mediocre critical reception. I have much more faith in the songs from Coco and Call Me By Your Name, both of which I found memorable. I will give the benefit of the doubt to “Remember Me” because that was a real tear-jerker, but I would be glad if “Mystery of Love” snagged the prize too.

Original Score

Nominees: Dunkirk, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

I have seen all of these except for Phantom Thread, and I think there is a clear choice. They are all good, but it’s probably between Dunkirk and Star Wars. While Star Wars has a phenomenal score, I do not think it will win. After all, it has been heard before. I think it will be Dunkirk. Its score is incredibly unique and is almost pervasive. Dunkirk has very little dialogue; it relies heavily on its score to build suspense. It is quintessential to the film itself, making it, in my opinion, the clear choice.

Production Design

Nominees: Beauty and the Beast, Blade Runner 2049, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water

I am not sure about this one. I would not be entirely surprised, however, if The Shape of Water takes the cake. I am guessing due to its many nominations and distinctive production. This is a wild card.

Sound Editing/Sound Mixing

Nominees: Baby Driver, Blade Runner 2049, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

These are two separate categories, but they have the same nominees. Truthfully, I have no clue which film will win. My personal preference would be Baby Driver for its upbeat and eccentric soundtrack, essentially one giant remix.

Film Editing

Nominees: Baby Driver, Dunkirk, I, Tonya, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

There are two options that stand out to me. Baby Driver and Dunkirk are incredibly impressive. Baby Driver features intense action sequences in sync with a fast-paced soundtrack. The movie is fast-paced and cuts from scene to scene rapidly. Dunkirk is a feat for other reasons. It features three separate timelines, each a different duration, but they are told side by side. The same events are repeated from different perspectives and through the manipulation of time. Both of these films are very deserving in their own right, and I sincerely hope the Academy picks one of them.

Cinematography

Nominees: Blade Runner 2049, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Mudbound, The Shape of Water

I want to express my dissatisfaction with these nominees. I wish Call Me By Your Name and mother! received nominations. Call Me By Your Name features a beautiful mix of panning wide shots, still landscape shots, and tracking shots that follow the characters around, while mother! consists almost entirely of shots from the perspective of Jennifer Lawrence, making for a very claustrophobic and personal experience that really amplifies the climax’s intensity. Out of the existing nominees, however, I would not be surprised if The Shape of Water takes home the trophy. The Shape of the Water is a classic Guillermo del Toro movie in that the colors absolutely leap off the screen. Everything is absolutely gorgeous and it does not need the flashy special effects of the other nominees.

Original Screenplay

Nominees: The Big Sick, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

I am not sure which film will win this category. I could see Get Out snagging the win due to its extremely original plot and social undertones. It is certainly the most socially relevant of the bunch.

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: Call Me By Your Name, The Disaster Artist, Logan, Molly’s Game, Mudbound

There is a clear winner here. Nothing comes close to matching the overall beauty and emotional weight of Call Me By Your Name. None of the others reach the realism and intimacy that Call Me By Your Name provides. I hope that the Academy chooses it; it is one of the most emotional films of the year.

Animated Feature

Nominees: The Boss Baby, The Breadwinner, Coco, Ferdinand, Loving Vincent

Let me start by saying how unacceptable it is that the Academy nominated The Boss Baby and Ferdinand but not The Lego Batman Movie. The Academy had some sort of vendetta against the original and the streak continues! Out of the nominees, there is little doubt in my mind that Coco will win. It is a truly emotional and beautifully animated experience. It might be the most emotional Pixar film yet.

Director

Nominees: Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk), Jordan Peele (Get Out), Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird), Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread), Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)

This is a tough call. All of these directors bring different strengths to the table. I hesitate to side with Anderson or Toro, but I think the remaining three are entirely possible. I will go with Jordan Peele; Get Out is his directorial debut. I adore Lady Bird and love Dunkirk, but their subject matter is not original or thought-provoking; we all know the Academy favors films that have something to say.

Supporting Actress

Nominees: Mary J. Blige (Mudbound), Allison Janney (I, Tonya), Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread), Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird), Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

Based on what I have seen from these nominees, they all gave phenomenal performances. My personal favorite would probably be Laurie Metcalf. Her portrayal of a stubborn yet loving mother was very emotional and genuine, and it is a role that I am sure many parents can relate to. I suppose Allison Janney could win as well. Her character was comedic, yet complex. Nonetheless, Laurie Metcalf is my personal preference and I would not be surprised if she wins.

Supporting Actor

Nominees: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project), Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water), Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World), Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri)

I feel fairly confident that one of the Three Billboards actors will win the award. Woody Harrelson is more of a respected actor, but his character also does not have the largest role. I am leaning toward Sam Rockwell due to his larger role and his complex character arc. I have not, however, seen The Florida Project, so maybe I am missing out on some truly masterful work from Dafoe. Based on what I have seen and heard, however, Rockwell seems quite likely.

Lead Actress

Nominees: Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water), Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Margot Robbie (I, Tonya), Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird), Meryl Streep (The Post)

I do not think Ronan will win due to her inexperience, and I am doubtful that Streep will win. Hollywood has hit its limit on Streep. She is always amazing in her roles, but she has yet to top herself. I could see Robbie winning, but this is also her first nomination and her performance, while amazing, might not necessarily stand out from the rest. I think McDormand and Hawkins are the most likely. McDormand is a well-respected master class actress, so I feel like the Academy might favor Hawkins instead. I am not sure if I want her to win or not, but her performance is the most unique. She plays a mute woman who never speaks in the movie, but she still manages to deliver a powerful performance.

Lead Actor

Nominees: Timothée Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name), Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread), Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out), Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour), Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)

There is someone that I want to win and I truly think he deserves it, and that is Timothée Chalamet. He carries the entire movie and gives a raw, realistic, and emotional performance. He had to cry on screen without stopping for minutes on end. When you take into account the circumstances of the movie and his age, it becomes all the more impressive. I sincerely hope that the Academy recognizes this powerful new talent, but I would not be entirely surprised if they went for Daniel Day-Lewis, who apparently gave the performance of his career in Phantom Thread. I have a feeling, though, that it will be between them. Daniel Kaluuya was great, but not anywhere near as memorable in my opinion. I truthfully have not seen Oldman’s or Washington’s performances, but I have not heard a lot of buzz.

Best Picture

Nominees: Call Me By Your Name, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

We have reached the big finale, what everyone waits to hear. I am willing to bet that Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Phantom Thread, and The Post will not win. The consensus on Darkest Hour is that it is an overall imperfect film; Dunkirk is rather controversial with its minimal character development and dialogue; Phantom Thread is dividing viewers due to its seemingly unnecessarily slow plot; The Post is dividing moviegoers on its quality. Get Out is a horror film, which makes it unlikely, but it is a socially conscious movie that critiques subtly racist stereotypes in modern society. We all know the Academy loves social critiques. Ultimately, I could see Call Me By Your Name, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, or Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri taking home the most prestigious award of the night. My personal favorite of the bunch, having seen them all, is Call Me By Your Name. It simply transcended cinema and reached a rare, magnificent level of realism, raw emotion, and reserved beauty. The Hollywood Reporter called this film “sublime” and I would agree. There are many amazing films from 2017, but Call Me By Your Name is the only one I would consider sublime. There is something beautiful about it; it is hard for me to put my finger on it.