The White House War: South Carolina and Nevada Analysis

The week of February 14th to February 20th was one of the bloodiest weeks of fighting in the war for the White House. The battlegrounds shifted to South Carolina and Nevada, with Republicans and Democrats each competing for a respective victory.

While the actual South Carolina primary and the Nevada caucus occurred on February 20th, the Republican candidates were locked in a political struggle all week. Following a GOP debate on February 13th, the candidates made appearances at the GOP Town Hall on February 17th and 18th. They divided into two groups of three for each night, and candidates answered questions from audience members in the hopes of winning over more voters. Less than half an hour into Saturday’s primary, we saw businessman Donald Trump emerge triumphantly in first place, Marco Rubio snatch second place away from Ted Cruz, and Jeb Bush’s tragic (but graceful) suspension. Ted Cruz, John Kasich, and Dr. Ben Carson took third, fifth, and sixth places respectively.

The Nevada struggle was easier to comprehend. Hillary Clinton’s hard work to win the support of minority voters paid off and gave her the edge to beat her unconventional challenger, Bernie Sanders. This was what happened on Saturday, but let’s look at these results in an objective, long-term analysis.With regards to Clinton, this was the win she needed in order to maintain her status as the establishment Democrat candidate. Thus far, Clinton has obtained a “victory” in Iowa (although some argue that the results in Iowa cannot be called a victory) and a crushing defeat in New Hampshire. Nevada gives Clinton a moment to breathe in the face of Sanders’ surging momentum. While Sanders has the support of college students and first-time voters, Clinton has backing from African-American and Latino voters; this proved to pay off for her in Nevada. Establishment Democrats will not remove their support for Clinton, at least for the time being.

The polls preceding the South Carolina primary never truly revealed a moment when the Trump campaign was in dire straits. Despite an apparently hostile crowd during the debate, the businessman’s grassroots campaign surged throughout the week. Never before has a candidate won both New Hampshire and South Carolina and failed at being his party’s nomination for the presidency.

The second-place contender is more uncertain; Cruz and Rubio battled most of the night for the second slot. Although Rubio received the endorsement of South Carolina’s governor, Nikki Haley, South Carolina was tailor-made for Ted Cruz due to its plentitude of evangelicals and conservatives. It should have guaranteed Cruz at least second place. As for Jeb Bush, the results proved that spending millions of dollars cannot guarantee any candidate a happy ending. Bush’s surrender ended the possibility of a Bush-Clinton rematch or even a third Bush president. It is unclear whom the Bush voters will now support. Both John Kasich and Dr. Ben Carson have refused to back down, Dr. Carson admitting that he has a responsibility to his loyal supporters.

So, what’s in the future? Clinton and Sanders will continue on to South Carolina, while Trump, Rubio, Cruz, Kasich, and Dr. Carson will battle in Nevada. Super Tuesday will emerge as the real test on March 1st. The war for the White House has deepened, but November 6th looms ever closer, and the stakes rise every day.