I am a research fellow at the Center for Primary Care and Public Health in Lausanne, affiliated to the Lausanne Center for Health Economics, Behavior, and Policy (LCHE) at the University of Lausanne.

My research interests are in the fields of Health Economics and Economics of Conflict, with a focus on applied questions. My ORCID profile can be found here: Nathalie Monnet (0000-0001-5939-4057) - ORCID. 

Contact: nathalie.monnet@unisante.ch

Research

Working papers

The Impact of Digital Mental Health Technology on Mental Health, Education and Economic Outlook of Young Adults

with Mauricio Avendano, Armando N. Meier, Clémence Kieny, Martha Escobar Lux, Fabio Idrobo, Laura Torres-Cuéllar, Andrea Carolina Bello-Tocancipá, Juan Vargas-Nieto Andrea, Gustavo Adolfo Perdomo Patino, Ricardo Araya, Naomi Koerner

[Pre-Analysis Plan][AEA RCT registration]

Poor mental health may harm the success of low-income students, but access to care is lacking. While small-scale trials suggest that digital technologies hold promise, there is no comprehensive trial assessing their causal impacts on both mental health and economic outcomes. This large-scale randomised controlled trial in Colombia studies whether and how access to digital technologies strengthens the mental health, educational attainment and labor market outlook of low-income university and vocational training students. We also study mechanisms related to decision-making, including self-control and patience. The 10-week transdiagnostic intervention, grounded in cognitive behavioral therapy, was co-designed with vulnerable young adults. Integrated in an existing nationwide program providing educational subsidies to over half a million students, this trial broadens our understanding of the impacts of digital mental health technologies at scale and offers crucial insights into how mental health shapes educational and economic outcomes.

Project website: https://unil.ch/youthwellbeing/ 

The Impact of Education on Dementia? Causal Evidence from Compulsory Schooling Reforms in England 

with Mauricio Avendano, Clémence Kieny and Emma Nichols

[Draft available upon request] R&R Social Science & Medicine

Compulsory schooling laws, introduced across Europe in the 20th century, aimed to increase educational attainment and, in turn, may have shaped key determinants of cognitive health. In this paper, we exploit variations in compulsory schooling laws in England to assess whether increased education, mandated by these policies, impacts cognitive function and dementia risk in older age, as well as well-known risk factors for dementia. We focus on two major reforms: the 1947 reform, which raised the minimum school leaving age from 14 to 15, and the 1972 reform, which increased it to 16. Using data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and a novel dementia risk algorithm based on the Harmonized Cognitive Assessment Protocol (HCAP), we find that both reforms increased schooling, but their effects on cognitive aging were mixed. We find suggestive evidence that the 1947 reform improved cognitive outcomes and reduced dementia and MCI risk specifically for women and individuals from low parental education backgrounds. In contrast, we find no statistically detectable reductions in dementia risk associated with exposure to the 1972 reform. Our findings suggest that the impact of compulsory schooling laws on cognitive ageing and dementia are context dependent, with earlier reforms yielding stronger effects for women and individuals from low parental education background. Findings highlight the importance of  institutional context and heterogeneity when assessing the long-run effects of education policies.

The Cost of Inaction: Child and Adolescent Overweight and Obesity in Indonesia

with Antoine Habib, Giulio Cisco, David Colozza, Joachim Marti, Mauricio Avendano, Siti Nadia Tarmizi

Child and adolescent overweight and obesity impose substantial long-term health and economic burdens. In Indonesia, the prevalence of excess weight is rising rapidly, yet evidence quantifying its lifetime economic consequences and the potential returns of preventive policies remains limited. We apply a Cost-of-Illness framework to estimate the lifetime economic burden attributable to overweight and obesity in a cohort of Indonesian children and adolescents. The model incorporates direct healthcare costs and indirect productivity losses (through labor market and schooling). We assess three evidence-based interventions—sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxation, front-of-pack nutrition labeling (FOPNL), and marketing restrictions—individually and as a combined package, and calculate return on investment (ROI). In the absence of intervention, overweight and obesity are projected to cost Indonesia USD 313.07 billion over 75 years, equivalent to USD 4.17 billion annually or 0.3\% of current GDP. Implementing the three policies generates USD 16.36 billion in economic gains and averts 2.7 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) across the cohort’s lifetime. The SSB tax is the most cost-effective intervention, yielding an ROI of USD 1,633 per dollar invested, while the combined policy package delivers an ROI of USD 140 per dollar invested. Preventive action targeting childhood overweight and obesity yields substantial health and economic benefits in Indonesia. The magnitude of projected gains provides strong evidence to support implementing fiscal, informational, and regulatory measures as part of a national obesity prevention strategy.

The Economic Costs of Conflict: a Production Network Approach 

with Mathieu Couttenier and Lavinia Piemontese

[CEPR Discussion Paper No DP16984, Feb. 2022] Submitted.

We develop a novel approach for estimating the economic costs of conflict, using the production network as the primary mechanism through which the disruptive effects of localized conflict spread to peaceful areas. Applying this approach to the Maoist insurgency in Eastern India from 2000 to 2009, we quantify the overall impact of conflict, taking network propagation into account. Our key finding reveals that a one percentage point increase in conflict-induced distortion is associated with an average annual decrease of 0.236% in aggregate output. Notably, 73% of the total output loss can be attributed to network propagation.  

Hit them in the Wallet! An Analysis of the Demonetization as a Counter-Insurgency Policy 

with Edoardo Chiarotti

 [Latest Version + Online Appendix] [IHEID Working Paper]

This paper investigates the causal link between the cash nature of the finances of organized armed groups and their subsequent violent activities. We use the sharp cash shortage that followed the 2016 Indian Banknote Demonetization as a natural experiment. The severity of the shortage in different districts is measured using the spatial distribution of demonetized and newly introduced notes. We construct a unique and rich dataset on daily violent events, fatalities and surrenders of the Maoist insurgents in India between 2006 and 2018. Our results suggest that there is a general reduction in violence after the policy in districts experiencing more severe cash shortage, and a positive impact on surrenders of Maoist extremists. Second, we find that the increase in the trend of surrenders is mitigated where Maoists have higher abilities to raise funds, through three traditional sources of revenue, i.e. the extortion of public work contractors, mineral and forest resources. This paper provides the first study on the importance of cash in illegal activities and an ex-post evaluation of a policy countering illicit cash flows.

Selected work in progress

COVID-19 Containment Policies, Time Use and the Mental Health of Older Adults during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Longitudinal Evidence from Europe. (with Jeanne Berche, Joachim Marti, Mauricio Avendano)

The Long-Run Impact of Primary Education on Women's Late-Life Cognitive Function in India. (with Mathéo Bourgeois, Clémence Kieny,  Mauricio Avendano)

The Policy Exposome of Dementia: Gaps, Opportunities, and a Research Agenda to Integrate Policy Analysis into Dementia Research. (with Kieny C, Bourgeois M, Marks G, Atshan S, Brayne C, Dow W, Glymour M, Knapp D, Livingston G, Pananicolas I, Platt EA, Rehkopf D, Sadana R, Suvarna A, Vargas Lopez F, Wallace L, Walsh S, Wenner M, Avendano M)

Publication

Shutdown Policies and Worldwide Conflict 

with Nicolas Berman, Mathieu Couttenier & Rohit Ticku

[Latest Version + Online Appendix] [Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Paper - CEPR Press 16, May 2020] Journal of Comparative Economics, Volume 50, Issue 1, March 2022, p. 240-255.

We provide evidence on the link between the policy response to the SARS CoV-2 pandemic and conflicts worldwide. We combine daily information on conflict events and government policy responses to limit the spread of SARS CoV-2 to study how demonstrations and violent events vary following shutdown policies. We use the staggered implementation of restriction policies across countries to identify the dynamic effects in an event study framework. Our results show that imposing a nation-wide shutdown is associated with a reduction in the number of demonstrations, which suggests that public demonstrations are hampered by the rising cost of participation. However, the reduction is short-lived, as the number of demonstrations are back to their pre-restriction levels in two months. In contrast, we observe that the purported increase in mobilization or coordination costs, following the imposition of restrictions, is not followed by a drop of violent events that involve organized armed groups. Instead, we find that the number of events, on average, increases slightly following the implementation of the restriction policies. The rise in violent events is most prominent in poorer countries, with higher levels of polarization, and in authoritarian countries. We discuss the potential channels underlying this heterogeneity.

Book Chapter

Conflict in Times of Covid-19  

with Nicolas Berman, Mathieu Couttenier & Rohit Ticku

This chapter discusses the potential impacts of the spread of COVID-19, and the restriction policies that it has triggered in many countries, on conflict incidence worldwide. Based on anecdotal evidence and recent research, we argue that imposing nation-wide shutdown policies diminishes conflict incidence on average, but that this conflict reduction may be short-lived and highly heterogeneous across countries. In particular, conflict does not appear to decline in poor, fractionalised countries. Evidence points to two potential ways in which COVID-related restriction policies may increase conflict: losses in income and magnified ethnic and religious tensions leading to scapegoating of minorities.

Miscellaneous

A Note on the Economics of Philanthropy. with Ugo Panizza 

[Working paper] [Data] 

This note starts with a short review of the economic literature on philanthropy. Next, it provides some estimates of philanthropic giving in advanced and middle-income economies and discusses how innovative financial instruments can leverage charitable giving. The note concludes with a discussion of the controversial aspects of philanthropic activities. 

Domestic Violence and the Labor Market: Evidence from Switzerland. [Working paper]