The Effect of Democrat Governor on Internal Migration of Low-Skilled Immigrants
(Latest Version of Draft) (JMP, previously circulated as "Party Affiliation of Governors and Internal Migration of Low-Skilled Immigrants: Evidence from the US States")
Using 2000–2019 data on Hispanic immigrants without a college degree, I compare states narrowly won by Democrats to those narrowly won by Republicans to causally identify how partisan control of state government affects interstate migration. Despite the Democratic Party’s pro-immigration stance and strong Hispanic support, I find that Democratic victories reduce net interstate migration flows of Hispanic immigrants while they increase those of low-skilled U.S.-born Whites and Blacks. This divergence is driven by heterogenous impacts in the labor-market. Democratic governors worsen (improve) Hispanic immigrants' (native-born workers') employment prospects. Policy differences associated with Democratic control (higher minimum wages and more generous earned income tax credits) interact with imperfect substitutability between immigrants and natives, shifting employment toward native-born workers despite a more politically favorable climate. These findings indicate that interstate migration among Hispanic immigrants is driven primarily by economic returns rather than ideological alignment.
The Political Impact of Second-Generation Immigrants: Evidence from the U.S. (with Anna Maria Mayda and Meixi Wan)
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