The Effect of a Pro-Immigrant Party Governor on Internal Migration of Low-Skilled Immigrants (Latest Version of Draft) (JMP, previously circulated as "Party Affiliation of Governors and Internal Migration of Low-Skilled Immigrants: Evidence from the US States")
This paper investigates the causal impact of Democratic governors on the interstate migration of low-skilled Hispanic immigrants in the United States, aiming to assess the relative importance of political versus economic factors in migration decision-making. Despite the Democratic Party’s pro-immigration stance and strong support from low-skilled Hispanic immigrants, a regression discontinuity design reveals lower netflows of Hispanic immigrants into states led by Democratic governors. In contrast, U.S.-born White and Black individuals with comparable skill levels exhibit higher netflows into these states. This divergence appears to be driven by differential labor market outcomes: Democratic governors are associated with higher unemployment rates among Hispanic immigrants—reducing their expected labor market returns—while native-born Whites and Blacks experience lower unemployment and thus greater expected economic benefits. Policy factors such as higher minimum wages and more generous earned income tax credits under Democratic leadership, combined with imperfect substitutability between immigrants and natives, help explain this pattern. These findings suggest that economic incentives, rather than political preferences, play a more decisive role in shaping internal migration decisions.
The Political Impact of Second-Generation Immigrants: Evidence from the U.S. (with Anna Maria Mayda and Meixi Wan)
The Success of Immigrants from Non-English-Speaking Countries in Australia: The Role of Voluntary Job Mobility and Occupational Segregation
Minimum Wage and Location Choice of Workers with Heterogeneous Productivity