The Effect of a Pro-Immigrant Party Governor on Internal Migration of Low-Skilled Immigrants (Latest Version of Draft) (JMP, previously circulated as "Party Affiliation of Governors and Internal Migration of Low-Skilled Immigrants: Evidence from the US States")
This paper exploits close gubernatorial elections to causally identify how partisan control of state government affects interstate migration. Using 2000–2019 data on Hispanic immigrants without a college degree, I compare states narrowly won by Democrats to those narrowly won by Republicans to test whether movers respond more to political affinity or to economic incentives. Despite the Democratic Party’s pro-immigration stance and strong Hispanic support, I find that Democratic victories reduce net interstate migration flows of Hispanic immigrants. Under Democratic governors, the Hispanic immigrant population is about 11 percent smaller over a four-year term, whereas low-skilled U.S.-born Whites and Blacks are about 1.6 percent larger. This divergence is driven by differences in labor-market and cost-of-living conditions. Under Democratic governors, Hispanic immigrants face weaker employment prospects and higher housing costs, while native-born workers see improved employment outcomes. Policy differences associated with Democratic control — including higher minimum wages and more generous earned income tax credits — interact with imperfect substitutability between immigrants and natives, shifting employment toward native-born workers and lowering expected payoffs for Hispanic immigrants despite a more politically favorable climate. These findings indicate that interstate migration among Hispanic immigrants is driven primarily by economic returns rather than ideological alignment, and they link partisan control to labor-market policy, labor demand, and residential mobility.
The Political Impact of Second-Generation Immigrants: Evidence from the U.S. (with Anna Maria Mayda and Meixi Wan)
The Success of Immigrants from Non-English-Speaking Countries in Australia: The Role of Voluntary Job Mobility and Occupational Segregation
Minimum Wage and Location Choice of Workers with Heterogeneous Productivity