Embedded Files
Methods
Methods
Our data was sourced from USGS Earth Explorer LANDSAT 8-9 OLI/TIRS C2 L2 sensor, which has a spatial resolution of 30 meters. Our main study area was South-East Ukraine, specifically the Donetsk region which encompasses Donetsk and Mariupol.
We used images taken during pre-war times (June 22, 2021) and during the war (June 4, 2023) during the summer months when a great deal of agricultural production occurs.
We used the data we collected to analyze if agricultural regions being attacked can predict famine by measuring changes in NDVI values, which can monitor the health and density of vegetation. If there is a decrease in the mean NDVI, we can hypothesize that there is less vegetation growth occurring due to bombing in the area. If there is an increase in the mean NDVI, that means that there is an increase in vegetation density, which could suggest overgrowth due to farmers not being able to harvest their crops in active warzones.
Results
Results
June 22, 2021
June 22, 2021
Before the war (began February 2022)
June 4, 2023
June 4, 2023
During the war
Overall Difference
Overall Difference
Between 2021 and 2023, there was little to no change in the maximum, mean and standard deviation. However, there was a significant difference seen in the minimum NDVI value, which may be attributed to shelling. We focus on a few specific locations around the frontline and measure specific NDVI values between years before and during the war, as seen below.
Analysis
Analysis
While the mean NDVI experienced a relatively small change between 2021 and 2023, there is a noticeable change in the NDVI values in one particular section of the region. A strip of land near Donetsk, Ukraine appears to have a much higher data value in the 2023 image as opposed to the 2021 image. Simultaneously, NDVI is lower on either side of this strip.
We hypothesize that this stretch of healthy agriculture with high photosynthetic activity is actually the location of the frontline in 2023, due to farmers being unable to harvest their crops during the ongoing violence. Lower NDVI on either side may be due to shelling, drought, or crops that have already been harvested—we are unable to tell the exact cause from the imagery alone. Overall, the inability to harvest essential crops in this area will contribute to a reduced crop yield, which may indicate future famine or a lower GDP for a heavy agricultural exporter like Ukraine. After hypothesizing that the higher NDVI values in 2023 are due to overgrown crops on the frontline, we conducted additional research to further investigate.
Supporting evidence
Supporting evidence
Crop Timeline
Crop Timeline
We used imagery from June 2021 and 2023 to ensure that agricultural fields were the most visible, with most crops grown in the South-East region of Ukraine flowering and soon to be harvested in the Summer months (USDA). The region we used, Donetsk, is a major agricultural part of the country.
Front line Location - 2023
Front line Location - 2023
A map of the war from June 17, 2023, close in date to our June 4, 2023 image, reveals that the frontline was in the exact region indicated by the NDVI values (Bailey et al. 2023).
Study of Related Work
Study of Related Work
Map of winter crop cover for 2019 to 2022 growing seasons (Deininger et al. 2023 , p. 5)
Famine risk is difficult to quantify from our results, due to natural variations in NDVI from year to year as well as confounding factors not visible by measurement of NDVI. However, results from similar research indicate a decrease in winter cereal cover in 2022 (and, to a lesser extent, in 2020) compared to 2021 and 2019 (Deininger et al. 2023).
Regions with a higher NDVI value (shown in a noticeably darker green compared to their surroundings) may exist due to conflict-related issues, such as an insufficient agricultural workforce and fuel during active warfare. Additionally, grazing may be restricted, which causes overgrown vegetation in these regions.
Therefore, statistically significant changes in NDVI or overgrown crops can help us predict famine risk caused by conflict-related destruction of agricultural areas. However, lower NDVI is linked to a decrease in crop yield, which makes our findings consistent with Deininger et al. (2023).
References
References
Bailey, R. et al., 2023, Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 17, 2023. Available online at: https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-17-2023 (Retrieved 19 March 2024).
Deininger, K. et al., 2023, Quantifying war-induced crop losses in Ukraine in near real time to strengthen local and global food security. Food Policy, 115.
United States Department of Agriculture, (n.d.), Crop explorer for major crop regions, Crop Calendars. Available online at: https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_calendar/umb.aspx (Retrieved 14 March 2024).
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