When will a vaccine come out?

To be blunt: we don’t know when the vaccine will come out. There’s hope that a vaccine will be out by 2021, but while several vaccines (like the Oxford vaccine) show promising results, we just don’t know if they will actually work until they’ve finished testing.

Vaccines normally take 10 to 15 years to create. They have to pass testing through the CDC’s four phases. The vaccine linked earlier, the Oxford vaccine, is currently (at the time of this article being written) in phase 3: mass testing. Due to the pandemic, world leaders have enacted programs to speed up the creation of the vaccine. Experts hope that a vaccine will be created within the year, but considering how long it takes for vaccines to normally be created, the year estimate is pretty generous.

According to the CDC, clinical development of vaccines occurs in three phases:

• Phase I: Testing on small groups of people.

• Phase II: Testing is expanded to include those who fit the profile of who the vaccine is meant for.

• Phase III: Testing is expanded into the thousands.

There is also a fourth phase to development, but that usually occurs after the vaccine has already been approved and released for the public.

Currently, the AstraZeneca vaccine (sponsored by a pharmaceutical company based in the UK) has entered phase 3 of the vaccine trials in the United States. They plan to test the vaccine on 30,000 volunteers to see if it can prevent symptomatic COVID-19. On September 6th, the trials were paused temporarily (due to an adverse reaction) and have since restarted amid some controversy. This is a good example of why it’s hard to set a dedicated deadline for when the vaccines will be finished. Trials have setbacks, and even the ones that seem to be performing well may have issues that aren’t caught until much later.

Despite the uncertainty, there is some positive news. Within the US alone, four vaccines have made it to the trial phase, which (considering the normal times it takes to develop vaccines) is quite remarkable. Vaccines can take up to a decade to reach this phase; four separate ones have reached trials already in less than a year. There’s still hope, however uncertain it may be.

Still, it’s a bit of a cop out to say that we just don’t know, right? It does feel like that, yeah, but that’s the reality of the situation. We’re facing unprecedented times (something you’ve probably heard many times these past few months) with an unprecedented disease. Reality, sometimes, does not go quite as we expect. A vaccine breakthrough could come within the next few months, or it could be delayed by years due to setbacks, like an evolving virus. A vaccine may never come, in which case we and our world’s leaders will need to prepare for such an occasion.

In light of the vaccine’s uncertain release, it’s up to us individuals to do our part to keep our communities safe. Wear your mask, keep your distance, mitigate that spread. Keep in touch with loved ones and friends online (social interaction is still very much important). Pick up that book you’ve been meaning to read or learn that skill you’ve been putting off. A “return to normal” might not be feasible right now, or even in the new future, but everyone still has lives to live. So live them (safely!).