Kieran Saucedo

Thesis Advisor: Dr. Christina Edholm (Scripps College - Department of Mathematics)

Second Reader: Dr. Lisette de Pillis (Harvey Mudd College - Department of Mathematics)

Contact: ksaucedo@g.hmc.edu

Stochastic Dynamics in Legionnaires Disease Epidemiology

Legionnaires disease (LD) refers to a form of sever pneumonia caused by bacteria in the Legionella genus, most commonly Legionella pneumophila. Legionella bacteria reside in natural and artificial water reservoirs, though usually at low enough concentrations that transmission into human hosts, which occurs via aerosolized particles, is rare. Under certain conditions, notably when Legionella populations in poorly maintained artificial water reservoirs reach high enough concentrations and particles from Legionella infected water reservoirs are readily aerosolized amongst human populations, outbreaks can occur. Prior literature has shown compartmental models of disease are well suited to capture LD outbreak dynamics. Through this thesis, we aim to incorporate stochastic dynamics into these deterministic models to better understand features of LD outbreak dynamics which these models miss.