Research Projects

Working Papers

Chains of Security? Sanctions, Economic Linkage, and Firm-level Cooperation (solo-authored)

Why do some firms in non-sanctioning countries cooperate with sanctions, while other firms do not? This paper argues that firm-to-firm economic linkages with sanctioning countries function as a channel for eliciting cooperation from firms based in non-sanctioning countries. When these firms have economic linkages - through ownership and/or trade - with sanctioning countries' firms, they are more likely to cooperate with sanctions due to higher costs of trading export-controlled items. Foreign governments and economic partners can leverage these linkages to pressure firms to cooperate with sanctions, even if these firms are based in non-sanctioning countries. Some firms, however, maintain their risky business despite pressures and evade sanctions by adjusting their commercial contracts. In particular, this paper will show how firms attempt to mitigate risks by altering currency usage and shipping contracts. The empirical analysis focuses on the sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which represents the largest sanctions campaign to date in terms of imposed sanctions' economic scale. Utilizing 47 million firm-product level shipment datasets from Russia and its trading partners, the empirical analysis will explore the impact of sanctions on firm-level cooperation with sanctions. These findings will provide insights about the effectiveness of sanctions as well as firm-level risk calculations in international commerce.

Targeted Sanctions and Maritime Shipping: Evidence from Satellite Tracking of Vessels

(with Christina Davis, Partnership with UN Global Platform)

States are increasingly relying on sanctions while narrowing their focus to specific targets. However, even so-called “smart sanctions” require the cooperation of third parties to maximize their effectiveness. Using satellite tracking data of vessel movements from 2013 to 2022, this paper empirically examines the impact of targeted sanctions on maritime shipping activity. Our findings indicate that targeted sanctions have only a short-term effect in reducing sanctioned vessels' port stops. Our analysis also shows a significant increase in sanctioned vessels turning off their tracking systems, challenging the effectiveness of sanctions and global maritime governance. This paper contributes to the growing literature on economic sanctions by introducing novel data on targeted shipping sanctions and their implications

Competitive Cooperation? Rivalry and Public Support of International Organizations (with Hyunso Oh)

Abstract: Could public support for international organizations (IOs) survive amid geopolitical rivalry? Contrary to expectations that a rival's increased funding could lead to backlash against IOs, we argue that rivalry can strengthen support for IO funding. This study examines this argument using the empirical case of the U.S.-China rivalry in the United Nations (UN) through a paired survey experiment in the two countries. Our findings show that both the U.S. and Chinese citizens express increased support for UN funding when informed of a rival’s decision to increase its contributions. In both contexts, individuals with high national chauvinism were particularly responsive to rival's funding in shifting their support. Mechanism analysis further supports this result, showing that increased rival funding triggers competitive perceptions toward UN funding and inflates the perceived influence of the rival. We also compare the impact of non-rival treatments, including an alliance (US-UK) and a strategic partnership (China-Russia), to better understand how geopolitical alignment interacts with public support for IO funding. Our results indicate that while rivalry has a unique impact on enhancing support for IO funding, it is driven more by nationalistic motivations than by a commitment to global collaboration. This nuanced understanding of rivalry’s impact challenges the simplistic view of rivalry as either wholly positive or negative for international cooperation.

International Organization and Persuasion in Global Swing States (with Stephen Chaudoin)

How does the dissemination of information from international organizations (IOs) influence the perceptions and behaviors in third-party states? Scholarship on IOs and public opinion often examines their informational influence on domestic audiences within target states. This study shifts the focus, examining two key dynamics. First, we analyze how IO-transmitted information shapes beliefs and actions within "global swing states" — countries without firm alignment with either the target state or the sender. Second, we argue that audiences respond not only by updating beliefs about the target state but also by evaluating the IO itself in terms of its perceived impartiality and accuracy. This process has implications for the IO's long-term legitimacy, a critical consideration during a period of declining public support for international institutions. We apply this framework to analyze the International Criminal Court's (ICC) recent condemnation of Russia for war crimes, exploring the potential impact on global swing states' policies towards Russia and broader perceptions of the ICC.

Work in Progress

Optimizing Export Controls on Chips (with Yunho Jin)

We explore the challenge of designing optimal export controls for AI training hardware, particularly GPUs, to balance U.S. national security and economic competitiveness. GPUs are pivotal for AI development, with implications for both industrial innovation and military capabilities. Our framework focuses on restricting access to advanced GPUs by geopolitical rivals, such as China, while minimizing the economic impact on U.S. firms. We propose frameworks to evaluate export controls, incorporating key GPU performance metrics—compute capability, memory bandwidth, and interconnect bandwidth—and their role in AI development. A performance modeling tool will assess the time, energy, and carbon footprint required for AI training, providing insights into the optimal boundaries for export controls. By addressing the tension between industry advocacy for narrowly tailored policies and government priorities for national security, we aim to offer actionable recommendations to policymakers. This work bridges technical and policy considerations to create a balanced approach to export controls.

Demystifying Kim's Kingdom: Public, Elites, and Propaganda in North Korea Newspapers (with Nayun Kim)

This project investigates North Korea's elite-level authoritarian information control with a comparison to public-level information control through large textual datasets including official newspapers and party propaganda. This dataset is the first attempt to systematically analyze North Korea's domestic politics from the 1940s to the present.

Targeted sanctions and the behavior of drug trafficking organizations (with Julio S. Solís Arce)

This paper analyzes how US sanctions affect the behavior of drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) in Mexico. DTOs strategically choose to use violence to hold influence in their operating regions. When facing economic sanctions, we expect DTOs to exert violence to citizens to cope with unexpected negative income shocks.

Publication

Lim, T. (2023). Fragmented Labor Regime: FDI, Labor Regulation, and Workers’ Protests in China. Journal of East Asian Studies

Abstract:

How does the influx of foreign direct investment (FDI) affect labor protests in China? Build- ing on the framework of fragmented authoritarianism, I argue that the regional competition to attract foreign investment causes labor protests in China due to its deregulatory effects on labor regulation. Each actor, including the central and local governments, foreign investors, and workers, has different cost-benefit considerations, which provide an explanation for the link between foreign investment and labor protests. By theorizing each actor’s preferences, this paper explains how FDI induces labor deregulation and workers’ protests in China. Analyzing China’s prefecture-level city data from 2012 to 2018, I find that the influx of FDI is positively associated with labor protests. The result remains robust to alternative model specifications and instrumental variable estimation. I also provide empirical evidence for the deregulatory effect of FDI on labor standards with an analysis at the firm level using the World Bank Enterprise Survey. These findings deepen our understanding of how FDI shapes labor regulation and induces workers’ protests in the context of China.

Lim, T., & Kim, S. E. (2022). Buying influence? Rotating leadership in ASEAN and allocation of Chinese foreign aid. International Relations of the Asia-Pacific.

Abstract:

China has expanded its economic footprint in Southeast Asian countries by providing a growing amount of development finance to the region. We examine the allocation of Chinese foreign aid toward Southeast Asian countries exploiting the exogenous variation of rotating leadership within ASEAN. As the ASEAN Chair possesses the agenda-setting power and represents the organization, China strategically allocates more development aid to the ASEAN Chair to augment its influence in the region. Our analysis of Chinese aid allocation between 2000 and 2017 finds that taking the leadership position at ASEAN appears to be significantly associated with an increase of official development aid flows from China, while other commercial flows are only weakly associated with the leadership position. Our findings underscore the importance of considering the regional context in examining foreign aid allocation and show that a donor can target a regional organization to exert its political influence in the region.

Other Publications

(Book Chapter) "Political Foundation of Educational Policy: the Generational Effects on Public Education Spending in South Korea" (with Dong-Hun Kim and Chanwoong Yoon, in Korean), in Market and Democracy in the Era of Inequality

Abstract:

The book is a part of SSK (Social Science Korea) projects on "Conflict and Collaboration of Market and Democracy in the Era of Inequality". The Center for the Study of Inequality and Democracy (CSID) was established in 2017 with scholars and graduate students exploring to alleviate the conflicts between market capitalism and democracy in the era of rising inequality. This book is a collection of studies by researchers in CSID. Click this link for further information

Political Foundation of Educational Policy: the Generational Effects on Public Education Spending in South Korea. Korean Journal of Political Science. 28(2) (with Dong-Hun Kim and Chanwoong Yoon, in Korean)

Abstract:

The paper examines public attitudes on the public educational policies in South Korea. Since 2000, the generational conflict became the most salient political cleavage in South Korea affecting not only elections but also various public policies. Building on the previous studies identifying strong generational effects on political attitudes, this study investigates the generational effects on public education policies, focusing on the millennial generation. Based on public opinion survey conducted in 2019, this paper finds that, in particular, the millennial generation in South Korea opposes the affirmative action policies and less likely to vote for the political parties that increase the public education spending. South Korea spends almost 12% of GDP on education but public education spending is only about 4% of GDP. Given the high level of private education spending, the educational policies became highly contentious issues that not only pertain to the equal opportunity problem but also to the high level of economic inequality in South Korea. Despite the fact that public education spending is an important tool to reduce economic inequality and educational inequality, this paper cautiously predict that political foundation of expanding the public spending on education will be weakened in the future due to the negative attitudes of millennial generations on public education spending.

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