Program Day 1

Day 1 – September 13, 2025
Each presentation, inclusive of discussion, is limited to 30 minutes.

Session I Expectations (09:00–10:30, Lecture Hall No. 2, Chair: Jinill Kim - Korea University)

• Jinill Kim (Korea University)
  Inspecting the Mechanism of Diagnostic Expectations: An Analytical Approach
  Slides
  
  

• Soojin Jo (Yonsei University)
  When News Isn't Just News: Partisan Affiliation and Inflation Expectations
  
  

• Pei Kuang (University of Macau)
  Central Bank Communication and House Price Expectations
  
  

Session I Structural Transformation (09:00–10:30, Lecture Hall No. 3, Chair: Terry Cheung - Academia Sinica)

• Terry Cheung (Academia Sinica)
  Education Policy, Human Capital and Structural Transformation
  Slides
  
  

• Jinglun Yao (University of Hong Kong)
  Knowledge is (Market) Power
  Slides
  
  

• Jing Zhang (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)
  Premature Deindustrialization and Industry Polarization
  Slides
  
  

Session I Macro Finance (09:00–10:00, Lecture Hall No. 8, Chair: Huifeng Chang - National University of Singapore)

• Huifeng Chang (National University of Singapore)
  A Macroeconomic Model with Bond Market Liquidity
  
  

• Kenji Wada (National Taiwan University)
  Risk-Based Liquidity Theory of International Currency
  Slides
  
  

Session II Macro Prudence (12:45–14:15, Lecture Hall No. 2, Chair: Chun-Che Chi - Academia Sinica)

• Chun-Che Chi (Academia Sinica)
  Coordinating Monetary and Macroprudential Policies around Low Nominal Rates
  Slides
  
  

• Akira Ishide (The University of Tokyo)
  Allocative Inefficiency during a Sudden Stop
  Slides
  
  

• Steve Wu (UC San Diego)  Rescheduled to Day 2, Session VI
  Monetary Policy and the Secular Decline in Long-Term Interest Rates: A Global Perspective
  
  

Session II Time Series (12:45–14:15, Lecture Hall No. 3, Chair: James Morley - University of Sydney)

• James Morley (University of Sydney)
  How Important Is Global r-Star for Open Economies?
  
  

• Zhentao Shi (Chinese University of Hong Kong)
  Nickell Bias in Panel Local Projection: Financial Crises Are Worse Than You Think
  Slides

• Zhongxi Zheng (National University of Singapore)
  U.S. State-Level Business Cycles Since the Civil War
  Slides
  
  

Session II Fiscal Policy I (12:45–14:15, Lecture Hall No. 8, Chair: Wataru Miyamoto - University of Hong Kong)

• Wataru Miyamoto (University of Hong Kong)
  Thuy Lan Nguyen (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
  The Macroeconomic Effects of Cash Transfers: Evidence from Brazil
  
  

• Eunseong Ma (Yonsei University)
  Tax Cuts by Occupation: Entrepreneurs vs. Workers
  
  

• Yunho Cho (Sogang University)
  How Does Tax and Transfer Progressivity Affect Household Consumption Insurance?
  
  

Session III Economic Growth I (14:30–16:00, Lecture Hall No. 2, Chair: Basile Grassi - Bocconi University)

• Basile Grassi (Bocconi University)
  The EU Miracle: When 75 Million Reach High Income
  Slides
  
  

• Tomoo Kikuchi (Waseda University)
  Club Formation and the Changing World Order
  
  

• Yang Lu (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)
  AI and Human Capital Accumulation: Aggregate and Distributional Implications
  
  

Session III Inflation Dynamics (14:30–16:00, Lecture Hall No. 3, Chair: ChaeWon Baek - Sungkyunkwan University & Tufts University)

• ChaeWon Baek (Sungkyunkwan University & Tufts University)
  Cyclical Returns to Scale and the Slopes of the Phillips Curves
  Slides
  
  

• Hyunseung Oh (Federal Reserve Board)
  Retail Inventories and Inflation Dynamics: The Price Margin Channel
  Slides
  
  

• Liugang Sheng (The Chinese University of Hong Kong)
  Team Persistent or Team Transitory? Sectoral Linkage and Inflation Persistence
  Slides
  
  

Session III Real Estate Prices (14:30–16:00, Lecture Hall No. 8, Chair: Sangyup (Sam) Choi - Yonsei University)

• Sangyup (Sam) Choi (Yonsei University)
  Junghyuk Lee (Bank of Korea)
  Good Housing Booms, Bad Housing Booms: A Real-time Identification of Speculative Bubbles
  
  

• Shunsuke Hori (Hitotsubashi University)
  A Macroeconomic Model with Rational Exuberance: Temporarily Explosive Land Price Dynamics
  Slides
  
  

• Shengliang Ou (Shanghai Jiao Tong University)
  House Prices, Land Finance and the Coordination of Monetary, and Fiscal Policies in China
  
  

Session IV Monetary Policy (16:15–17:45, Lecture Hall No. 2, Chair: SeHyoun Ahn - Norges Bank)

• SeHyoun Ahn (Norges Bank)
  There is no Forward Guidance Puzzle
  Slides
  
  

• Daisuke Ikeda (Bank of Japan)
  Mind the Gap When Exiting Low-for-Long
  Slides
  
  

• Masayuki Okada (Bank of Japan)
  Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy without Fiscal Backing
  Slides
  
  

Session IV Macro Labor I (16:15–17:15, Lecture Hall No. 3, Chair: Ji-Woong Moon - Chung-Ang University)

• Ji-Woong Moon (Chung-Ang University)
  The Role of Wealth and Participation Decisions in Designing Unemployment Insurance
  Slides
  
  

• Serene Tan (National University of Singapore)
  Mid-Worklife Crisis
  Slides
  
  

Session IV Sovereign Debt (16:15–17:15, Lecture Hall No. 8, Chair: Hyungseok Joo - University of Surrey)

• Hyungseok Joo (University of Surrey)
  Heterogeneous Sovereign Debt Crisis Costs
  
  

• Qing Liu (Tsinghua University)
  Efficiency through Incentives: A Theory of International Conditional Lending