Time: 10:30 AM - 12:30 AM

Place: Meeting Room 1; 4th floor, Building 2; Tama Campus, Chuo University
  中央大学・多摩キャンパス・2号館4階・研究所会議室1

Chair
Hiroshi Kumakura (Chuo University)

Baek Jung Kim (Korea University)

Title: Changing Roles of Word-of-Mouth Communications in Repeated Consumption Decisions: The Case of Serial Drama Viewing

Abstract: This paper studies the roles of Word-of-Mouth (WOM) communication in situations where consumers make consumption decisions continually and re-evaluate their opinions about the product or service as their experiences change with repeated consumption. In such an environment, the valence of WOM content changes over time, and the purpose of consuming WOM may shift from acquiring information to exchanging opinions with other consumers. We study the changing role of WOM communication using data on Japanese serial dramas from 2017 to 2018. Our goals are two-fold. First, we document how the valence and contents of WOM change over time through topic modeling and sentiment analysis. Second, we develop a structural Bayesian learning model of consumers' drama-viewing decisions and evaluate how the informational and consumption values of WOM communications vary over time, by topic, and by sentiment. We find that WOM encompasses various developments and that we can develop a structural Bayesian learning model in which consumers derive informational and consumption values using topic modeling and sentiment analysis. We find that WOM on the experiential attributes of dramas, as well as neutral and negative WOM, has higher informational value. Moreover, we find that WOM on negative emotions and storyline tends to show higher consumption values. 

Keywords: Word-of-Mouth, Topic Modeling, Sentiment Analysis, Bayesian Learning, Structural Estimation

Minjung Kwon (Syracuse University), Masakazu Ishihara (NYU), and Makoto Mizuno (Meiji University)

Title: A Dynamic Model of Consumer Learning and Forgetting for Seasonal and Limited Releases

Abstract: This paper proposes an empirical framework for identifying consumer forgetting and studying its impact on consumers’ incentive to engage in costly experimentation. We identify consumer forgetting by combining a Bayesian learning model with variations in advertising effects. Specifically, we exploit how advertising responsiveness changes as the inter-purchase time increases. We apply our identification argument to a Japanese beer market where some products are available only during winter. Using reduced-form analysis, we find evidence that the effect of advertising changes with the inter-purchase time, and brand switching behavior changes within the winter season. Building on these reduced-form findings, we develop a structural model of forward-looking consumers that incorporates both learning and forgetting. Standard structural models that ignore consumer forgetting suffer from a significant limitation: they fail to account for the erosion of knowledge over time, thereby overestimating consumers' incentives to engage in strategic experimentation. Our study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of how anticipating future forgetting alters the various dimensions of consumer dynamic incentives and firm strategies.

Keywords: Forgetting, Advertising Effect, Seasonal Marketing, Bayesian Learning

Time: After the seminar (around 11:30 AM)

Place: Faculty Cafeteria, Main Building; Tama Campus, Chuo University
  中央大学・多摩キャンパス・1号館・教職員食堂

Please join us freely!