Vulnerability of Tree Species to Climate Change

Projected changes in climate conditions over the next century vary widely across Canada, and so does the capacity of forest species to cope. However, not all species will react equally in the face of rapid environmental change. As part of the Forest Change project of Natural Resources Canada, a series of comparative indices of sensitivity and ability to adapt were developed for 26 species found in Ontario and Eastern Canada to better understand how species respond to climate stress and how local management decisions can be taken to mitigate impacts.

Assessing Vulnerability of Tree Species to Climate Change

With climate change, Canadian forests are likely to experience important changes in growing conditions and more frequent, longer lasting and more severe disturbances caused by fire or drought (Lempriere et al. 2008; McKenney et al. 2011; Reyer et al. 2013; Zhang et al. 2019). Not all tree species will respond equally to rapid environmental change. These stressors (fire, drought, changing growing conditions) could result in declining forest health, increasing mortality or important changes in species composition (Millar et al. 2007; Boucher et al. 2018; Bouchard et al. 2019).

Climate-based vulnerability assessments are increasingly used to anticipate potential impacts of such stressors on forest ecosystems, develop corresponding adaptation strategies and support decision making [Edwards et al. 2015; Swanston et al. 2016].

Assessing species’ vulnerability to climate change requires information on the following three components (modified from Glick et al. 2011):

Exposure: the magnitude of environmental change a tree will experience. Environmental change can include changes in patterns of temperature and precipitation across space and time or changes in disturbance regimes like fire or drought.
Sensitivity: the degree to which a species is likely to be affected by or respond to environmental change. For example, some tree species will be more affected than others during a drought event.
Adaptive capacity: a species’ ability to accommodate or cope with environmental changes. Some species may be able adapt to drought conditions, either rapidly (e.g., change in leaf morphology to minimize water loss) or over longer periods of time (e.g., changes in genetic make-up towards characteristics that are better suited to species’ persistence).
Exposure and Sensitivity can be combined to express the Impact of a climate stressor on a tree or a species.

Vulnerability Resources

Tools to Assess Forest Vulnerability

The following pages link to online tools developed in collaboration with the Canadian Forest Service to assess the various components of forest vulnerability:

Sensitivity – Using ecological knowledge to characterize tree sensitivity to climate change
Adaptive capacity – Quantifying tree adaptive capacity to climate change
Glossary and other resources - Glossary and other resources related to forest vulnerability assessments

External Resources

Forest Vulnerability Assessment Tool: https://glfc.cfsnet.nfis.org/fcvul/index.php?lang=e

Associated Publications

We would like to thank the laboratory of Dr. Isabelle Aubin (Canadian Forest Service / Natural Resources Canada) for making this work available. Please refer to the following publications for more details.

Contact information

Isabelle Aubin, Ph.D.

Research scientist – Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada

Email: Isabelle.aubin@nrcan-rncan.gc.ca

Literature Cited

Lemprière, T.C.; Bernier, P.; Carroll, A.; Flannigan, M.; Gilsenan, R.; McKenney, D.; Hogg, E.; Pedlar, J.; Blain, D. The Importance of Forest Sector Adaptation to Climate Change; Information Report NOR-X-416E; Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada: Québec, QC, Canada, 2008; 78p. Available online: https://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/publications?id=29154
Reyer, C.P.O.; Leuzinger, S.; Rammig, A.; Wolf, A.; Bartholomeus, R.P.; Bonfante, A.; de Lorenzi, F.; Dury, M.; Gloning, P.; Abou Jaoudé, R.; et al. A plant’s perspective of extremes: Terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability. Global Change Biol. 2013, 19, 75–89.
McKenney, D.W.; Hutchinson, M.F.; Papadopol, P.; Lawrence, K.; Pedlar, J.; Campbell, K.; Milewska, E.; Hopkinson, R.F.; Price,D.; Owen,T. Customized spatial climate models for North America. 2011. American Meteorological Society 1613-1622. Available online: https://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/publications?id=32229
Zhang, X.; Flato, G.; Kirchmeier-Young, M.; Vincent, L.; Wan, H.; Wang, X.; Rong, R.; Fyfe, J.; Li, G.; Kharin, V. Changes in Temperature and Precipitation across Canada; Canada’s Changing Climate Report; Bush, E., Lemmen, D.S., Eds.; Government of Canada: Ottawa, ON, Canada, 2019; pp. 112–193. Available online: https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/
Bouchard, M.; Aquilué, N.; Périé, C.; Lambert, M.-C. Tree species persistence under warming conditions: A key driver of forest response to climate change. Forest Ecology and Management. 2019, 442, 96–104.
Boucher, D.; Boulanger, Y.; Aubin, I.; Bernier, P.Y.; Beaudoin, A.; Guindon, L.; Gauthier, S. Current and projected cumulative impacts of fire, drought, and insects on timber volumes across Canada. Ecological Applications. 2018, 28, 1245–1259. Available online: https://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/publications?id=39205
Millar, C.I.; Stephenson, N.L. Temperate forest health in an era of emerging megadisturbance. Science 2015, 349, 823–826.
Edwards, J.; Pearce, C.; Ogden, A.; Williamson, T. Climate Change and Sustainable Forest Management in Canada: A Guidebook for Assessing Vulnerability and Mainstreaming Adaptation into Decision Making; Canadian Council of Forest Ministers: Ottawa, ON, Canada, 2015; p. 160. Available online: https://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/publications?id=35956
Glick, P.; Stein, B.; Edelson, N. Scanning the Conservation Horizon: A Guide to Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment; National Wildlife Federation: Washington, DC, USA, 2011; p. 168. Available online: https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/37406