An Investing Course with a Guarantee?

Seems odd, doesn't it? But after going to Joel Bauer's Masterclass, I've decided to go for the jugular and provide a guarantee to my Students that if they don't make 50% per year or 78.6% per year (depending if they are a Student or a VVIP).

Now this is really tricky since everyone knows that if you guide a student and hand hold him by even giving him your Trade Plan, the results might still be a LOSS. This is because Trading is about psychology,

But then, I've already taught this out as I am being mentored by some GREAT and AWESOME people!! And I do have awesome framework on which Students can make money. Thanks to Datin Maznah Mahboob, former CEO of Aminvestment for guiding me on how to correctly design a fund. I will forever remember her advice on being GRANULAR - "I OVERTHINK so the IMPLEMENTATION is easy". Wise words indeed.

And there is Wayne Maclean (he's on the far left below) from TEMATA whose Software has been instrumental in powering our trading. We are also glad to help Wayne put in new features in the system as it would greatly improve our trading

The results so far have been great! A student who joined 2 weeks ago at a fee of RM5K (US$1.2K) has already made his money back! And with a MAM (Multi Managed Account), my students can actually be assured of returns since it is run by Experts. And the students just want more LOL - Now they want me to offer a "MOTHERLOAD" for everything!! This is because technically, I teach 6 different courses!

Also, we have already started testing LIVE for our Fun. It is not easy and is a mental challenge in and of itslef. Yes, we are being monitored by our future Funders. It's not only Surely, there is more to come, but these successes do give a GREAT BOOST to the Fund, So it's a GUARANTEE indeed which I can provide to my students, possibly one of very few in the Industry.

P/S-I know the dangers of being overconfident in this. I have seen a similar offer being made before by a Cryptocurrency Guru. A money back guarantee of Cryptos did not multiply your money. And NO, it did't work with not so happy consequences so I am cautiously optimistic!!

IS THIS THE BEGINNING OF SOMETHING WORSE?

I was trading in my eTORO account (it's a FOREX Platform) by the way and had correctly predicted the movement of the USDJPY going UP, but upon seeing the results there was clearly something AMISS. The profit was too low and upon inspection, it would seem that eTORO in Europe has REDUCED my leverage from 100x to 30x.

Meaning it would take 3x the amount of capital to make the same gains (see the picture on the top).

Oh Bummer! But we have options to change our accounts to eTORO Australia to get the higher leverage which is what we did.

Now we saw this before in late 2014 and it was harbinger of very BAD things to come. Saxobank had warned of the gyration of the SWISS franc as early as September 2014 and in January 2015, the peg between the Euro and Swiss Franc was broken causing the Franc to appreciate by 3,000 pips or 30% against the Euro and 25% against the US Dollar!

Many brokers such as Alpari went bust while FXCM was also on the cusp of failure before being bailed out.

With the recent restrictions on European clients on their leverage, one has to wonder if there is going to be a BIG MOVE in the Forex markets soon? Will the Euro be affected? Will the Franc be affected?

Please note that even though my account has moved from Europe to Australia, the maximum leverage I am given for the EURCHF pair is only 50X.

And the suspense keeps building..

Malaysia has gone through 2 rounds of Currency Crisis, both resulting in the Ringgit falling 50% compared to the US Dollar. Certainly nothing to scoff at.

But what if we were to undergo a depreciation of 100% or more? If the US DOLLAR were to simply go parabolic against the Ringgit?

Here, I interview Nasif from Egypt where the Egyptian Pound went from 5 to 8 and then to 18.5 against the US Dollar, bringing many hardships to the people of the Nile

Beware the DOUBLE TOP on the S&P500

I have told my all my good friends and community on the looming market crash coming soon, which of course will likely be followed by a recession. I give here another “Indicator” based on the S&P 500 Index.

In 2008 before the markets really tanked, there was a DOUBLE TOP formed in July and October. The charts in 2018 look eerily the same with the “correction” in early 2018 being wiped out (normally a strong BULLISH Sign). But before you rush and loading up your portfolio on stocks, you have to ask if this could be the much dreaded “M” formation at the highs before the actual market tanks? Will there be a DOUBLE top in January 2018 and October 2018?

Do you remember the words “Irrational Exuberance” by Allan Greenspan in 1996? (the markets in Tokyo went down 3% after his speech as he was referring to Japan in the 1980s). Such was the state of the markets during the dot-com boom before it busted in the year 200. The term was also used by Robert Shiller who came out with the Shiller PE ratio. And with the Shiller PE at 32 – which is higher than Black Tuesday in 1929, higher than the 2008 level of 27, and is only eclipsed by the Dot Com bust era of 2000, we could look at this period in the future as representing the EXCESS in borrowings and Debt. It could herald the start of a bygone era where a RESET was necessary.

I think we are all quite “exuberant” now although it certainly doesn’t border in the irrational, it’s because the lack of retail investors – this is a VERY TIRED BULL market so beware the warnings of November.

Is a Currency Collapse all that Bad?

With some major Emerging Market Currencies depreciating, I was asking myself a major question: WHAT IF THE CURRENCY TOTALLY COLLAPSED? How do we hedge against this? Like other than Buying GOLD or BITCOIN? These are usually SAFE HAVENS. Look at how the Turkish people embraced Bitcoin as the the Turkish Lira collapsed.

So when I took a look at the Venezuelan Bolivar and saw that it had collapsed 99% - yes, it's even worse than Cryptos - I could only stare in horror as to what the Venezuelans are suffering. But how do you hedge against this?

It seems there is another way to hedge against a currency which has hit rock bottom, and it is the Stock Market. This makes sense. As the currency tumbles and if companies are making revenue in foreign currency (tip: they are exporting commodities which are priced in US Dollars), then the performance of the company should go sky high.

And the stock market should go sky high, logically speaking at least. But even I was shellshocked to see the performance of the Venezuelan stock market as the Currency tanked. Just look at the BEAUTIFUL PICTURE ABOVE.

Now that is ONE beautiful chart isn't it? WOW. The Venuezuelan Index actual went up by over 73,000% as hyperinflation went up to 46,000% and the Bolivar (Currency of Venezuela) went down by 99%. Stupendous numbers.

Now let's just say that you had US$100,000 worth of the Bolivar. You invested 20% or US$20,000 in the Stockmarket. It rockets up 73,000% so your value is USD is now actually US$ 146,000 or thereabouts (because you have factor in the Bolivar fell by 99%). But your balance of US$80,000 also fell by 99% so you are left with only US$800. But with a total of US$146,800, a 50% return isn't that bad, is it?

Can this be used on the Bursa Malaysia or would it be better to just short the Index? Hmmmmmmm.

Trading System Limitations

It was a great meeting today with our American Investment Banking Partner to understand how we can better improve our Forex AI system which we are currently testing - but it was also a lesson in HUMILITY, human limitations in the random game of trading.

It seems that when it comes to trading Pattern Recognition, the HUMAN EYE and EXPERIENCE is faster. An AI could be be generating too many patterns and even the best ones could yields "false positives" (we have seen this too, and are applying a manual workaround during volatile market opens where "Stop Hunting" is rampant".

Any trading system that has a edge will eventually be copied by others until there is no advantage anymore. A good trading system has to be killed when it is ineffective and you have to get a new one. Being in trading for long time, I appreciate this. The world of Forex in 2011 is very different from what it is now. Having a "Partner in Crime" in the industry represents an "edge" in and of itself.

I have always been mystified at how systems which do well when backtested eventually fail when put to the sword. Once again, our partner has verified this. They were developing a system to trade an exotic asset class - the algorithm seemed logical, and it was doing great in backtesting - but the actual production results left much to be desired.

The challenge is not in the software itself. The challenge is in the MARKET MANIPULATION by brokers and many other actors in the value chain, of which the retail investor is like a Sardine, ready to be devoured by Sharks, Big Fish and even humans. The Big traders will MILLIONS can work in concert to make money while the others who are "not in the know" are subject to a lot of random day to day fluctuations will could trigger STOP LOSSES on absolutely good trades.

Is there a way to beat the system?

Yes, and it's in high frequency flash trades which execute a few fractions of a second faster. This allows traders to get in and out without having to experience the vagaries of the markets. Of course it was allowed later.

Ah, the struggle of the little guy, the SARDINE investor. The only good thing about this is that HUMAN INTELLIGENCE is still needed in trading! I believe that we all will be phased out eventually, but NOT NOW, NOT just YET. This sardine still has its Shelf Life LOL!!

A Layered Forex Business

I will be heading off to Batam, Indonesia, to attend Joel Bauer's Mastercourse at the Holiday Inn. It's not the real best of Indonesia, but is CHEAP Indonesia and beats the flights to Jakarta or Bali, or even Jogjakarta.

Joel Bauer is the Mentor to the Mentors, with Giants of the "Guru" world his students - such as Tony Robbins (yes the Big Badass Tony Robbins), T Harv Eker (Millionaire Mindset), Jordan Belfort (ok, he's kinda forgettable), and yes, Malaysia's own Peng Joon who Joel now regards as a "peer". I appreciate the 4 days "Immersive" experience and additional classes for those who take the effort to stay longer, of which I am definitely taking advantage of.

The Business that I will be using will be my new Forex business - it's really more than Forec as we cover Options and also ETFs, Stock Indices and Commodities.

Being a hedge fund, we definitely live for AUM (Amount Under Management), and the larger this is, the better. Since Asset Managers can be paid RM500,000 per annum, the pressure on marketing the fund is huge, especially at the outset. Hence, ensuring the sustainability of the young business is a paramount undertaking.

So this is where a LADDERING model of Forex makes sense, with many business offerings to cater to different business segments. I will expand my training business using both an ONLINE and OFFLINE training module - I obviously need to look for instructors for this who can deliver training in both English and Malay, and perhaps, Mandarin too. The training provides great incomes with Fees over US$1,000 and various Upsells but these can be very taxing too.

The next Ladder is quite interesting as it involves having a Forex Trading Signals Services. Now this will be very interesting as this is the most popular model of the Gurus and gives recurring income. I am planning to brand this under my Assistant below. Our signals are quite different as they involve "Pattern Recognition" - and execution is up to you!!

And since I also teach Cryptocurrencies and Shares (for the local stockmarket), then I'll just replicate these there before creating a joint venture model with whoever wants to run my courses under my "Brand".

Yezza, "Brand" Shukri Hamid coming soon!!

Forex has a Structure! Secret Sauce #1

A HEDGE FUND is BORN

I am HUMBLED by the FAITH given to me to start a Hedge Fund by a US based Investment Bank. Never in my wildest dream did I think I would have this opportunity but when one is ranked TOP 10 in the world by a top Forex Bank Broke, then one's SWEAT, BLOOD and TEARS do get noticed.

And now it's about putting the skills into an institutionalised product offering. And to further develop the AI (Artificial Intelligence) layer for a Forex product which is being developed by a company which FORBES mentioned is Hoping to Build the Internet (Agorai).

This is truly exciting!! Developing little intelligence Robots to take advantage of Forex opportunities during periods of high volatility. And to have robots manage the risk and not be subjected too much to the vagaries of the markets.

And it was all inked during a Japanese Dinner in KURIYA in the Chic area of Bangsar In Kuala Lumpur - here, you see a truly global partnership between a Malaysian, and Aussie and a Kiwi. I am sure that this is the start of something truly global - am I'm proud that ONE DAY, you will hear of a US-BASED Hedge Fund which is actually BORN IN MALAYSIA.

But now it's time for HARD WORK. To deliver on the promises and to solve the dilemma of RETIREMENT for the many to enjoy the Golden Years. And the final product, has not to only LOOK GOOD, it has to TASTE GOOD, yes, like Japanese food which is prepared in painstaking detail.

WILL a Return of 1% a Day Change RETIREMENT PLANNING?

Retirement Planning is in a state of flux. With Bond yields low, the Equity markets seem to be the only place to get a decent return - it is a well known rule that you need a return of 8% p.a. in Stocks where you opark 50% of your portfolio in order to drawdown 4% of your savings every year which will make it last 30 years before the last dollar has diminished.

But what will happen when the Stock Market crashes? With many Pension funds struggling (even Calpers) a downtrend in the stockmarket could result in many retirement portfolios facing challenges, and the Golden Years being not golden at all. We have not even taken into account the impact of Currency Crises. Look at how the USD appreaciated from 1.18 to the Turkish Lira to 7 in August 2018! The people holding assets in the Lira will not too excited about it, even considering that Turkish Interest rates have risen to 18%.

So in my Forex Fund which I am now testing (yes, we have rules and we will be measuring results everyday), we are targeting a "modest" 1% a day. We think that this is attainable using an Artificial Intelligence powered pattern recognition engine (it would be very hard for a human manual trader to do). We do not want to take high risks as we know the vicissitudes of the Forex market and other related markets such as Indices and Commodities.

But if we are successful, this will alter the entire landscape of retirement planning! And will have been done by automating trades on deeply liquid currency pairs like the EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY.

And because of this, it is surely worth the BLOOD, SWEAT and TEARS. Wish us luck!!

IS IT TIME FOR PROPERTY?

The most favoured and proven investment as far as many Malaysians are concerned is Property. And for good measure too. With annual compound growth rate 7% per annum (provided you buy in good areas), the prices of properties seem to double every 10 years, or that is at least what we are led to believe.

Since property prices in Malaysia are one of the, if not the cheapest in ASEAN, one must be wondering if the TIME has indeed come to invest again in Property. I am lucky to be living in the KLCC area, as there is a lot of developments here, including an MRT Station just beside my home in Troika KLCC, an LRT-MRT interchange in Ampang Park, and much vaunted Tower M, a supposedly 145-storey building at KLCC East and yes, beside my home again. No rewards for guessing where the word M came from!!

I attended a Private event today at the Banyan Tree to look at choice properties around this area (I have already bought in Troika and Pavilion so I myself am not sure if a purchase around this area breaks the rule of diversification, foreign interest or not). The trifecta of KLCC (Business Hub), Bukit Bintang (Shopping) and TRX (Financial Hub) is developing into a world class area like no other in Malaysia. This area will most definitely be one of the choice areas for investment in ASEAN, and the heatmap shows a strong concentration of foreigners in these Super Hotspots.

And there are real bargains if you look hard enough. But is it really the right time now?

I think not. And this is because with the crash coming (and this will be worse than 2008), then there could be a BEAR market period where there might be desperate sellers. Remember the slide from peak to trough in the USA lasted 6 months in the USA and 10 months in Malaysia. During this period, some property owners could capitulate.

Having said that, months into the crash, I am sure that Properties are the best vehicle to catch the rebound. Now that is a story for another time.

September BLUES?

Those in trading know that August and September really represent the "Dog Days of Summer", whereby markets go into a "lull". And September indeed has proven to be the month with the LOWEST VOLATILITY and LOWEST VOLUMES.

But with the Trade Wars coming to the forefront and also permutations of the future for President Trump, will Volatility decide to spike up in September instead. NAFTA talks put a huge spike up and down into the USDCAD (It's Loonie indeed!) and USDMXN pairs (As of this writing, NAFTA is off and Mexico has agreed while Canada remains to be seen).

Pronounced economist Martin Armstrong has said 2018 will be an inversion year (and the with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hitting new highs we are on our way there), but will the slide start in September, or will we have to wait for the dreaded October?

Yes, it was in October 2008 that the markets began their tailspin journey down until April 2009.

Is the Market going DOWN soon?

Looking the Shiller Index, there is certainly a case to be made! It is at the highest levels since 2008, even surpassing that - it's currently at 32.89 and this compares to 27 during the 2008 Financial Crisis and 30 during Black Tuesday of 1929 which triggered the Great Depression. Only the Dot Com bubble of 2000 exceeds this with a reading of 45.

Can stocks sustain this or are win in for a Rude Awakening? The PE ratio during the 2008 Crash was 52 while it was 120 during the Dot Com bust (record is actually 123 in May 2009). Now it's at 25-26. So indeed says the famous economist John Maynard Keynes, "The markets can go irrational for longer than you can stay solvent".

Perma Bears beware!!

FIRST BLOG POST-Asymmetric Trading

Hi y'alls, am extremely happy to be on Google now to blog about opportunities in Asymmetric Trading! This gives us the opportunity to trade for large gains with LOW RISK. This is also the techniques which the RICH use to expand their wealth WITHOUT LARGE RISK.

Here is a youtube video by Tony Robbins describing Asymmetric trading:

Is a Currency Collapse all that Bad?

DEJA VU.. We have seen this before in the Euro Zone