Lesson 3 - Myths and misconceptions

If I toss a coin 20 times what would you expect me to get? 

Suppose that the first four tosses have been heads. That’s four heads and no tails so far.  What do you expect from the next 16 tosses?

Task - How do people think about probability?

Two different views from two different people are shown below.  

• Read both carefully and decide which person you agree with. Write your answer and your reason in your exercise book or folder.

  • Theory A: I still expect 10 heads and 10 tails, and since I’ve already got 4 heads, I now expect 10 tails and 6 heads from the remaining 16 tosses.  So, in the next few tosses I expect more tails than heads. 

  • Theory B: There are 16 tosses to go.  For these 16 tosses, I expect 8 heads and 8 tails. This means I now expect 12 heads and 8 tails from my original 20 throws.

• Now you need to determine what some other people think. 

  • Show the above two arguments to 5 people. Reach out to family members or friends by asking them to text or email you their responses.

  • Record which theory they agree with underneath your own answer in your exercise book or folder.